Republican Primary Debate Preview: Could Nikki Haley take down Trump?

• Four line up in Alabama debate

• Haley rising in betting after Koch support

• Pro-Ukraine stance counts against her

The fourth Republican Primary debate takes place in Alabama at 8pm EST on Wednesday. It may turn out to be the last, as a fifth has yet to be scheduled and runaway race leader Donald Trump has yet to participate.

In his absence, the debate field is down to four and liable to winnow further before the Iowa Caucus on January 15th. Chris Christie only qualified at the last minute and could well drop out in order to help a candidate who isn't Trump.

TV ratings have slumped from 11.5M in the first to 7.5M in the third. This one is on NewsNation and the CW Television Network, as opposed to much bigger networks such as Fox and NBC.

The story so far involves three notable strands. First, the total failure to cut into Trump's enormous national poll lead. Second, the abject failure of one-time favourite Ron DeSantis. Third, the progress of Nikki Haley.

Haley surging on Betfair markets

Haley has long surpassed DeSantis in the betting and continues to attract big money. She has been matched in single digits for the presidency and her current 11.010/1 odds imply a 9% chance. By comparison, DeSantis given a mere 2% chance at 60.059/1.

Regarding the nomination, Trump is rated an 82% chance at 1.222/9, compared to Haley at 8.415/2 (12%) and DeSantis at 25.024/1 (4%).

Haley moved forward after being judged the winner of the last debate in the Five ThirtyEight/WAPO poll, and then again after news broke that she was the choice of Koch-aligned Super PAC, Americans for Prosperity (AFP).

Tonight is a critical outing for her. A desperate DeSantis is sure to go after her, as will arch enemy Vivek Ramaswamy. Christie, I expect, will continue to focus his bombs on Trump and Ramaswamy.

Christie withdrawal could be imminent

I expect it is only a matter of days, or maybe weeks, before Christie withdraws and backs Haley. His support could make a big difference for her in New Hampshire, (second on the primary schedule), where he has been polling around 10%.

However, I'm not convinced at all that the former South Carolina Governor can seriously challenge Trump nationwide. Her failure to meaningfully attack him is significant. She knows her brand of what was mainstream Conservatism a decade ago is the polar opposite to the fascist, isolationist agenda of Trump.

If this does develop into a head-to-head fight with Trump, she will go down by a big margin, no matter how many adverts are bought by the Kochs. Trump's propaganda is a global project, with unlimited funds and ability to swamp social media.

Trump rivals playing long game

In reality, as her failure to properly attack him indicates, Haley's gameplan is to stay in, accumulate delegates and hope disaster hits Trump in court.

But even if he were forced out, sparking a brokered convention, I find it hard to see her winning the nomination. In a recent poll without Trump, she trailed DeSantis by 21% and Ramaswamy's 15% are highly unlikely to transfer in her direction.

It seems a clear majority of Republicans do not want a candidate like Haley, who represents what Trump derides as the GOP establishment.

2024 National Republican Primary, Without Trump:

DeSantis 37%
Haley 16%
Ramaswamy 15%
Christie 3%
Burgum 2%
Stapleton 1%
Hutchinson 1%
Binkley 1%

.@Harris_X_/@TheMessenger, 1,454 RV, 11/22-28https://t.co/JZlxP3zTZX

-- Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) November 30, 2023

Iowa offers hope for DeSantis

Having trodden a Trumpian path to the nomination, pursuing the same voters, DeSantis is stuck. Even if they would quite like him as reserve, very few Trump voters are open to switching.

Nikki Haley represents the last gasp of a failed political establishment.

The elements supporting her want to take the Republican Party back to the failed establishment of yesteryear.

I will not let that happen. pic.twitter.com/47fJI71AGQ

-- Ron DeSantis (@RonDeSantis) December 5, 2023

Yet DeSantis isn't completely done. Conservative grassroots responded pretty well to his performance in debate against the Democratic hopeful Gavin Newsom last week.

Attacking Haley tonight will probably play well for DeSantis. In Iowa he has the prized endorsements of Governor Kim Reynolds and key evangelical leader Bob Vander Platts.

Trump remains miles ahead in Iowa polls but it is still early. This caucus is infamous for huge late turnarounds, and the caucus system offers a big advantage to activists, rewarding organised local campaigns. Those endorsements ensure DeSantis will at least have that.

Were he to finish clear second with a respectable share, it would be worth staying in for the same reasons as Haley - accumulate delegates and see how Trump's legal woes play out.

VP market is more exciting

Another reason for candidates to stay in is to perhaps earn Trump's vice-presidential pick. Personally, I don't think he would consider either but expect the odds about rivals to shorten up.

Ramaswamy in particular, whom I believe is in the race to serve Trump and Vladimir Putin, by splitting the opposition and acting as a surrogate for the absent front-runner.

Ramaswamy is second-best in our Republican Vice President market at 8.415/2, behind uber-Trumpist Kristi Noem, Governor of South Dakota.

Another interesting gamble in this market is for Tucker Carlson, whom I've been saying since 2021 is on Putin's shortlist as a back-up plan. Trump recently said Carlson was under consideration and check out this clip.

Tucker Carlson told Jon Karl that Donald Trump is "far more radical" in his support for Putin than what he says in public.

Shocking!pic.twitter.com/cBJ2ehoYdL

-- Republicans against Trump (@RpsAgainstTrump) December 3, 2023

This nomination market looks almost done but, given the court cases, there is still a route to Trump not being the candidate come November 2024.

I think it's worth keeping Ramaswamy and Carlson inside, just in case. Their elevation seems far likelier than a passionate Ukraine-defender like Haley, such is the apparent balance in the GOP.

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