UK Politics

UK Politics: Nigel Farage favourite to be the next prime minister

  • Max Liu
  • 3:00 min read
Reform UK MP Nigel Farage
Farage is the favourite to be prime minister after Starmer

Nigel Farage has been propelled into favouritism in the next UK prime minister betting on the Betfair Exchange and the odds on his party winning the next election have shortened too...

  • Nigel Farage is new favourite to be UK's next PM

  • He's shorter odds than Tory leader Kemi Badenoch

  • Bettors backing Reform in most seats at next election market


Nigel Farage became the favourite to be the UK's next time prime minister as Reform UK's bid to win the next general election gathered momentum on the Betfair Exchange.

He is 3.8514/5 to be the next occupant of number 10 Downing Street - a shorter price than Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch 4.47/2.

Farage's party, Reform UK, shortened to 3.814/5 to win the most seats at the next general election. The Conservatives are the 2.68/5 favourites and Labour are 2.9215/8.

The below Betfair Predicts graphic shows how close the next general election betting is.

Could Farage really be UK's next PM?

This is the first time Farage has been the favourite to enter number 10 Downing Street and it comes at a moment when his party is winning influential support.

This week Farage unveiled billionaire Nicky Candy, previously a donor to the Conservatives, as Reform UK's treasurer. It will be Candy's job to raise money for the party's next election campaign.

Farage has been a fixture in British politics for over a decade, first with UKIP, then the Brexit Party, and playing a leading role in the campaign for Britain to leave the European Union.

Nigel Farage 2024 1280.jpg

For all that he enjoyed a high profile, however, he repeatedly failed in his attempts to become an MP. That chance in July when he became MP for Clacton-On-Sea in the general election. Now he says Reform are serious about winning power at the next general election.

Some bettors appear to believe the party, which currently has five MPs, could win the most seats next time.

Labour won a landslide victory in July but there is a growing reception that Keir Starmer and his government are struggling in office. The Conservatives, meanwhile, are an unknown quantity under new leader Badenoch.

Farage believes he can beat Starmer and Badenoch

With neither of the main parties convincing at present, Farage, buoyed by Donald Trump's success in November's US election, spies an opening.

Trump supporter Elon Musk has been linked with Farage amid reports that the world's richest man will make a donation to Reform UK.

The next UK election is not scheduled to take place until 2029 and Labour has a working majority of 165 MPs. But the next few years look set to be eventful and the Betfair Exchange odds indicate that some gamblers believe Farage can make an even bigger impact than he has already.


Now read US Politics: Six reflections on Trump's historic election victory


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