UK Politics

Next Tory Leader Live Blog: Badenoch win is 85% chance say latest odds

Conservartive MP Kemi Badenoch
Kemi Badenoch is the favourite to be the next Conservative leader

Get the latest from Betfair's betting markets on the next Tory leader as six candidates compete to reach the next round and eventually succeed Rishi Sunak...


Tuesday 29 October - 10:00 - Badenoch firm favourite to win Tory leadership race

Kemi Badenoch is the 1/61.17 favourite on the Betfair Exchange to become the next Conservative leader when the winner of the contest to succeed Rishi Sunak is announced on Saturday.

Her opponent Robert Jenrick is [6/1] and it would be a major surprise if he were to win the contest.

The contest to become the next leader and rebuild the party has been a long road. Their crushing defeat at the general election in July seems like a long time to go but the next leader will need to reslience if they are to challenge Labour at the next election.

Badenoch was the early favourite, once Sunak announced he would be stepping down, but Jenrick gained momentum and enjoyed time at the top of the market. The same was true of James Cleverly who was unexpectedly knocked out in the penultimate round.

Tory members, who only vote in the final round of the leadership contest, were said to favour Badenoch over Jenrick and that is underlined by the odds.

Whether she is the most popular candidate with the party's MPs is another matter. Badenoch was criticised this week for refusing to bring forward the leadership contest so that the new leader could respond to the chancellor Rachel Reeves' upcoming budget.

Jenrick has said the race should be cut short so that the Tories can provide effective opposition to Labour.

It will be a shock if it is not Badenoch at the opposition dispatch box in the House of Commons in the coming weeks. She is 8/131.61 favourite to lead the party into the next election.


Thursday 18 October - 13:30 - Badenoch leads Jenrick in Tory leadership race

Kemi Badenoch is the 4/71.57 favourite to become the next Conservative leader with just over a fortnight to go in the contest.

One week after the two candidates went through to the final round, her opponent Robert Jenrick 9/52.80 is struggling to make inroads into Badenoch's lead.

Conservative members will elect their new leader in the final round of voting. A YouGov poll at the beginning of October showed Badenoch leading by 52% to Jenrick's 48, compared with 59 to 41 per cent six weeks earlier.

The candidates supporters have been sniping at their rivals, with Michael Gove, who is no longer an MP, saying Jenrick might hold the Tories back because he looks like a "Tory boy".

Gove, for whom Badenoch previously worked as a junior minister, is now the editor of the right-wing magazine The Spectator.

Christopher Chope, who is backing Badenoch, meanwhile, said she would be distracted by her children from the job of leader.

The winner of Tory leadership contest will be announced on 2 November.


Thursday 11 October - 14:30 - Badenoch favourite to succeed Sunak

Kemi Badenoch is the odds-on favourite to become the next Conservative leader as the party continues to digest the surprise news that she will face Robert Jenrick in the final round of voting.

Badenoch is 1.548/15 to win and Jenrick 2.8415/8.

Yesterday, James Cleverly, who was last week the favourite to succeed Rishi Sunak, was eliminated in the fourth round of voting by MPs.

Beforehand, Badenoch and Cleverly were expected to reach the final two. Jenrick drifted to around 10/111.00 in the next Conservative leader market in the minutes before the result was announced.

Today, Jenrick rejected claims that he accidentally made the final round, following speculation that Cleverly supporters had leant votes to Jenrick in a bid to eliminate Badenoch. If that was their intention, it backfired spectacularly.

Badenoch and Jenrick reaching the final two has already caused rancour in the party, with the Tory Reform Group, which represents its One Nation wing, today saying it would not endorse either candidate. The TRG claimed Badenoch and Jenrick both "used rhetoric and focused on issues which are far and away from the party at its best".

Polls have shown that Badenoch, who is on the right of the Tory party, is the favourite candidate with members. The final round of voting is the only one in which members vote. In the past, this way of structuring leadership contests, has meant the party has ended up with leaders that, while popular with members, did not command the confidence of their fellow MPs. This was the case with the shortlived leadership of Iain Duncan-Smith and the even shorter reign of Liz Truss.

It means the market on Conservative Leader at the Next Election may be one to look at. The next general election isn't scheduled to take place until 2029. If Badenoch does become leader next month - the winner is announced on 2 November, just three days before the US election - will she still be in place four-and-half-years later?

Yesterday was a reminder of the chaos with which the Conservatives have become synonmous. The fall out is a reminder that even when there are only 121 of them in parliament, they are deeply divided.

Labour have endured a torrid few weeks, which lead to the departure of Keir Starmer's chief of staff Sue Gray, but they are still 1.9310/11 favourites to win the next election.

Some believe the biggest winners yesterday were Labour and the Liberal Democrats, both of whom will enjoy picking up votes from parts of the electorate who are put off by a Tory party lead by either Badenoch or Jenrick.


Wednesday 9 October - 15:45 - Badenoch favourite after Cleverly shock elimination

Kemi Badenoch is the favourite to be the next leader of the Conservative Party after she and Robert Jenrick reached the final round following the shock elimination of James Cleverly.

Badenoch is 1.528/15 at the time of writing with Jenrick 2.568/5.

Jenrick's place in the final round was a big surprise. He drifted to 10/111.00 shortly before the results of today's vote was announced. Cleverly was trading at shorter than 2/13.00. But when the results came in, Cleverly was out, Badenoch and Jenrick were through to the final round.

Conservative leadership election fouth round of voting result

Kemi Badenoch: 42

Robert Jenrick: 41

James Cleverly: 37

Party members will choose between Badenoch and Jenrick in the final round. A recent poll showed that Badenoch was the most popular candidate with members.

The winner will be announced on 2 November.


Tuesday 8 October - 15:45 - Cleverly favourite as contest reduced to three

James Cleverly is the favourite to be the next Conservative leader after Tom Tugendhat was knocked out of the contest in the third round of voting.

As ist stands, Cleverly is 1.991/1 to win the race to succeed Rishi Sunak, Kemi Badenoch 3.9 and Robert Jenrick 4.1.

Today saw a third round of voting from Tory MPs and the outcome was:

James Cleverly: 39 (up 18 from last round)

Robert Jenrick: 31 (down 2)

Kemi Badenoch: 30 (up 2)

Tom Tugendhat: 20 (down 1)

Tomorrow there will be a further round of voting when one of the remaining three MPs will leave the contest. At the moment, Cleverly looks likely to make the final round and it will come down to a close battle between Jenrick and Badenoch for the final spot.

Tory party members will choose between the final two MPs left in the contest and the winner will be announced on 2 November.


Monday 7 October - 12:00 - Cleverly has narrow lead over Jenrick

James Cleverly became the new favourite on the Betfair Exchange to be the next Conservative leader ahead of this week's crucial votes in the contest to succeed Rishi Sunak.

At 2.526/4 (a 39.7% chance) Cleverly has a narrow lead over Robert Jenrick 2.789/5 (36%) after emerging from last week's Tory conference as the candidate with the momentum and possibly the best vision for winning back power.

Kemi Bednoch is 4.67/2 after beginning the contest as the favourite while Tom Tugendhat 38.037/1 is the big outsider.

Voting on Thursday (10 October) will decide which two out of the four candidates lwill reach the final round.

At the moment, that looks likely to be Cleverly and Jenrick and all the talk is about the former. He is regarded by many as the one candidate who could unite the party and be a reliable media performer.

Badenoch has received criticism for her campaign and caused controversy with her remarks about maternity leave last week.

Jenrick is distrusted by some who think he is prepared to change his political spots to casually for the sake of power. He began his career as a liberal Tory under David Cameron's leadership but has since adopted the stance of a hardliner in a bid to woo right-wing supporters.


Wednesday 2 October - 11:00 - Jenrick and Cleverly heading for final round

Robert Jenrick is the odds-on favourite on the Betfair Exchange to be the next Conservative leader but, of the four left in the contest, James Cleverly is the candidate with the momentum.

Jenrick is 1.728/11 after addressing the Conservative Party conference yesterday while Cleverly is now his closest rival at 3.953/1 after overtaking Kemi Bedenoch who drifted to 7.87/1.

Tom Tugendhat 21.020/1 is the big outsider of the quartet.

Favouritism switched between Badenoch and Jenrick for weeks before the latter pulled away to become the clear favourite.

Badenoch endured a damaging few days at the party conference and drew criticism for her remarks about maternity pay. There are rumours of a campaign to keep her out of the final round of the leadership contest.

There will be two further rounds of voting from Tory MPs on 9 and 10 October, as they reduce the contest to three then two candidates.

Unlike earlier rounds of the leadership contest, the final round will be voted for by party members, not just MPs. At the moment, it looks like they will be choosing between Cleverly and Jenrick, so Badenoch has a lot of work to do if she is defy the odds and make the final two.

The result of leadership contest should be announced in early November just before the US election.


Monday 16 September - 10:00 - Jenrick is clear favourite to be next Tory leader

Robert Jenrick is the odds-on favourite on the Betfair Exchange to be the next Conservative leader after the list of candidates was reduced to four.

Jenrick came top of the second round ballot on Wednesday, winning the support of 33 of his parliamentary colleagues, ahead of Kemi Badenoch who got 28 votes. James Cleverly and Tom Tugendhat both received 21 votes, while Mel Stride was eliminated with just 16.

Jenrick is 1.845/6, Badenoch 3.613/5, Cleverley 8.27/1 and Tugendhat 15.5.

The four will make their pitch to members at the party's conference in Birmingham (29 September - 2 October) before two further rounds of voting from MPs on 9 and 10 October.

After that the list candidates will be reduced to two before the final round in which Conservative party members will be able to vote for their next leader.

The ultimate winner will be annoucned in early November - possibly just days before the US election.

Whoever gets the job will be tasked with rebuilding the Conservative Party which was reduced to just 121 seats a the general election in July. At the moment, Jenrick is 2.01/1 to be the party's leader at the next election which is scheduled for 2029.

Labour are 1.9420/21 to win the most seats next time Britons go to the polls.


Thursday 5 September - 11:00 - Jenrick favourite after winning first round

Robert Jenrick extended his lead in the next Conservative leader market on the Betfair Exchange after Priti Patel was eliminated in the first round of voting by MPs.

Jenrick came top of the ballot on Wednesday, winning the support of 28 of his parliamentary colleagues, ahead of Kemi Badenoch who got 22 votes, and James Cleverly (21).

Jenrick is 2.35/4 on the Exchange ahead of Badenoch 3.02/1 and Cleverley 5.49/2.

Tom Tugendhat 19.5 received 17 votes but his odds indicate that he has little chance of closing the gap on the leading trio.

Likewise, Mel Stride received 16 votes to reach the second round but a price of 55.054/1 on him become the Tories' next leader means that he is not a serious contender.

Patel was knocked out after coming last in the first round with 14 votes.

The final four candidates, who look set to be Jenrick, Badenoch, Cleverley and Tugendhat, will pitch to the party at the annual conference later this month.

The list will be reduced to two candidates before the voting is thrown open to party members for the final round. The winner is expected to be announced on 2 November, three days before the US election.


Monday 2 September - 12:00 - Jenrick leads Badenoch before this week's vote

Robert Jenrick and Kemi Badenoch are a long way ahead of the other four candidates in the race to be next Conservative leader and are set to battle it out for the job, according to the latest Betfair Exchange odds.

Jenrick 2.8415/8 has a narrow lead over Badenoch 2.9215/8 as MPs return to Westminster and the leadership contest intensifies for the six candidates.

In the past few days, the leading pair, along with fellow candidates Tom Tugendhat 6.86/1, James Cleverly 8.415/2 Priti Patel 26.025/1 and Mel Stride 50.049/1 have all given speeches, marking the start of the leadership election in earnest.

This week will see Tory MPs vote in ballots this week that will result in two candidates being dropped from the race. At the moment, that looks likely to be Stride and Patel.

But there is still a long way to go in the contest to succeed Rishi Sunak. Conservatives have committed to a lengthy process, as they try to find the candidate who will have the best chance of rebuiling the party and regaining power at the next general election.

The final result of the leadership contest will not be announced until 2 November and we will have news of all the latest betting moves along the way.


Tuesday 20 August - 11:00 - Jenrick overtakes Badenoch on Betfair

Robert Jenrick is once again the favourite on the Betfair Exchange to become the next leader of the Conservative Party after he pulled away from Kemi Badenoch in the betting.

Jenrick is 3.052/1 to succeed Rishi Sunak while Badenoch has drifted to 3.45.

The pair were level in the Betfair Exchange next Conservative leader market on Friday but Jenrick gained momentum over the weekend and is now the frontrunner.

He has been busy, getting plenty of media coverage and, according to reports today, receiving the most leadership campaign funds from Tory donors.

Critics have questioned Jenrick's willingness to adapt his views and move in whichever direction the political wind is blowing, however. Some have pointed out that he was an enthusiastic supporter of David Cameron's liberal brand of Toryism before moving to the right under the leadership of Boris Johnson then Rishi Sunak.

Elsewhere in the betting, meanwhile, James Cleverely has shortened to 5.95/1, overtaking Tom Tugendhat 8.27/1, to go third in the market.

The odds indicate that, while Jenrick and Badenoch have dominated the betting, there is not clear frontrunner, no candidate who can be confident of victory the way that, for example, Johnson was in 2019.


Friday 16 August - 15:00 - Leading candidates neck and neck on Betfair

Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick are the joint favourites in the Betfair Exchange next Conservative leader market.

Both of the leading candidates are 3.185/40 after Jenrick regained support from bettors and Badenoch drifted in the betting.

Earlier this week, Badenoch pulled away from Jenrick but he mounted a comeback on the Exchange and the pair are now at parity.

The Conservative leadership has a long way to run, and we will not know the winner until early November, but it is less than three weeks until the leading pair and the four other candidates - Tom Tugendhat 6.86/1, James Cleverly 7.613/2, Priti Patel 17.016/1 and Mel Stride 26.025/1 - will take part in hustings before MPs vote on the four to go through to the penultimate round.

Tugendhat shortened to around 5.95/1 earlier this week, and it looked as though he was building momentum to challenge the leading pair, but he has since drifted back out to his current price.

Badenoch and Jenrick have been ahead of the rest for weeks and, based on the current odds, party members will have to choose between them in the final round.


Monday 12 August - 15:00 - Badenoch pulls away from rivals on Betfair Exchange

Bettors continued to back the favourite Kemi Badenoch on the Betfair Exchange to become the next leader of the Conservative Party.

The former-business secretary is 2.89/5 - getting close to her shortest ever price - and is starting to open up clear distance between herself and Robert Jenrick 3.259/4.

Badenoch began as favourite after Rishi Sunak resigned, following the Conservatives' defeat at the general election, but fell behind Jenrick in the betting.

Last week, Jenrick was criticised for saying that any protester who shouts "Allahu Akbar" should be arrested and lost ground in the betting shortly afterwards.

Badenoch regained favouritism on Thursday and continued to shorten across the weekend, from 3.1511/5 to her current odds.

Both Badenoch and Jenrick come from the right of the Tory party but she will have noted hoe badly his remarks, which were seen as a deliberate pitch to the party's hardliners, went down.

Tom Tugendhat 7.06/1, who comes from the Conservatives' liberal wing, is still third in the market but he has drifted at the same time as James Cleverly has shortened to 8.27/1.

Priti Patel is in from 16.5 to 15.014/1 but bettors continued to be unconvinced by the former-home secretary's chances of succeeding Sunak.

Mel Stride 40.039/1 is the big outsider in the six-candidate contest and will need to do something extraordinary at the hustings in September, when the shortlist will be whittled down to four, if he is to keep his chances alive.


Thursday 8 August - 10:30 - Badenoch regains favouritism

Kemi Badenoch is the marginal favourite to become the next leader of the Conservative Party after she overtook Robert Jenrick on the Betfair Exchange.

The former-business secretary was the early favourite in the market but Jenrick usurped her last week, only to drift on the Exchange in the last 24 hours, following his controversial statements about Islam.

Badenoch is 3.1511/5 and Jenrick is 3.259/4 so the betting is close and the contest looks open to a candidate who grab the initiative and win the support of Tories from across the party. Both leading candidates are pitching to the right of the party.

Tom Tugendhat 5.95/1 and James Cleverley 9.08/1 cannot be ruled out, although bettors appear to be cool on Priti Patel's 16.5 chances of succeeding Rishi Sunak. Mel Stride is the big outsider at 40.039/1.

The six will be whittled to four candidates after hustings which will be held when parliament returns from its summer recess on 2 September. Two days later, Tory MPs will pick their final four.

The two final candidates will be decided on 10 October and party members who will vote in an online ballot on 31 October, the winner of which will be announced on 2 November.


Friday 2 August - 15:00 - Favourite Jenrick says Tories can win next election

Robert Jenrick 2.767/4 is favourite on the Betfair Exchange to become the next Conservative leader after he officially launched his campaign to succeed Rishi Sunak.

The former-immigration minister told his party that he believed they could win the next general election, as he vowed that under his leadership the Tories would regain the electorate's trust.

Jenrick has enjoyed the momentum in the Exchange betting on the next Conservative leader and overtook Kemi Badenoch 3.259/4 to become the new favourite earlier this week.

The Tories were reduced to 121 seats at the last month's general election as Labour secured a landslide majority.

Jenrick admitted at his launch that under the next leader the party have a mountain to climb if they are to win back power at the first attempt. But he believes it can be done.

The early betting on the Betfair Exchange for the next general election, which is schedule to take place in 2029, has Labour odds-on to win the most seats with the Conservatives 3.1511/5.


Wednesday 31 July - 14:30 - Jenrick is the new favourite

Robert Jenrick 2.767/4 is new favourite on the Betfair Exchange to become the next Conservative leader after he overtook Kemi Badenoch 3.412/5 in the betting.

The market moves came as Badenoch, the longtime frontrunner for the role, was accused of bullying staff during her 17 months as business secretary. Badenoch has denied the allegations.

Jenrick was second in the Betfair Exchange market (see below) when nominations for next Conservative leader closed, with six candidates on the list.

But he has been gaining momentum with Exchange bettors and has taken pole position in the contest.


Tuesday 30 July - 10:15 - Badenoch heads list of six contenders

Kemi Badenoch is the favourite on the Betfair Exchange to be the next Conservative leader after nominations for the job closed on Monday.

Badenoch 3.07 is closely followed in the betting by Robert Jenrick 3.711/4.

The other contenders, in order of their prices on the Betfair Exchange, are Tom Tugendhat 5.39/2, James Cleverly 8.415/2, Priti Patel 12.5 and Mel Stride 15.5.

Nominees needed the backing of at least 10 Tory MPs to be on the list.

It will be whittled to four candidates through a series of hustings which will be held when parliament returns from its summer recess on 2 September. Two days later, Tory MPs will pick their four.

The list will be reduced to two final candidates on 10 October. They will make their case to party members who will vote in an online ballot on 31 October.

The winner will be announced on 2 November and it will then be up to them to rebuild the Conservative Party following its crushing defeat in the general election.


Monday 29 July - 09:15 - Long-time favourite Badenoch announces she will run

Kemi Badenoch has been favourite to replace Rishi Sunak as Tory leader for some time now but she has kept us waiting before announcing her intention to run.

Badenoch finally broke the silence on Sunday evening when declaring she would run. The annoucement has done little to shift her odds, Badenoch remaining the 3.185/40 favourite followed by Robert Jenrick at 4.1 with Tom Tugendhat next in the betting at 5.49/2. James Cleverly 7.413/2 and 11.521/2 Priti Patel and 44.043/1 outsider Mel Stride round out the current list of nominees.

Nominations close today.


Wednesday 24 July - 15:00 - Badenoch still fav as Cleverly declares he's running

James Cleverly is 7.613/2 on the Betfair Exchange to become the Next Conservative Leader after becoming the first candidate to declare he is running to replace outgoing Tory leader Rishi Sunak.

The former home and foreign secratary called for the Conervatives to show more self-discipline and blamed "too much time rowing amongst ourselves", for his party's landslide defeat in the general election earlier this month.

Candidates need to get the backing of at least 10 colleagues to be able to stand in the contest to replace Sunak, which is expected to last three months. The deadline for candidates to secure those nominations is this coming Monday (29 July).

Kemi Badenoch reamins the 3.55/2 favourite to be the next Tory leader ahead of Robert Jenrick at 4.57/2, Tom Tugendhat at 5.69/2 and Priti Patel at 12.011/1.

However, one man who now seems extremely unlikely to replace Sunak is Reform UK leader Nigel Farage after Cleverley declared that his party doesn't do mergers when asked if it could move closer to Farage's party. The controversial 60-year-old is now available to back at around 200.0199/1 having been as short as 4.03/1 in early April.

Next Conservative Leader:

- Kemi Badenoch 3.55/2
- Robert Jenrick 4.57/2
- Tom Tugendhat 5.69/2
- James Cleverly 7.613/2
- Priti Patel 12.011/1
- BAR 28.027/1

*odds correct as of 15:00 Wednesday 24 July


Monday 8 July - 17:00 - Jenrick backed in to second favourite

Kemi Badenoch shortened to 3.211/5 on the Betfair Exchange to become the next leader of the Conservative party as MPs returned to Westminster following Labour's landslide victory.

The former business and trade minister has long been touted as a potential successor to Sunak and received more support on the Exchange across the weekend.

It is not yet known when the leadership race proper will begin nor what format it will take. There have been arguments already about the participation of party members, with some Conservatives insisting that ordinary members must be able to vote.

None of that has stopped Betfair punters backing MPs who are seen as likely contenders. Badenoch was 4.216/5 on Friday and has seen her odds shorten in the immediatate aftermath of the election.

Robert Jenrick is the potential candidate with the momentum in the market. He was 13.012/1 on Friday but is now 4.67/2 second favourite after making media appearances over the weekend, as the Tories digested the scale of their defeat.

Tom Tugendhat 7.613/2 is also in the mix and expected to run again for the leadership, as is Priti Patel 11.521/2 who is also yet to declare that she's standing but has ruled out doing a deal for Nigel Farage and the Reform Party.

Suella Braverman is probably the most right-wing of the potential candidates and has talked in positive terms about Farage but she was reported to be losing support for a possible leadership bid. The former-home secretary drifted from 10.09/1 to her current price of 17.016/1.


Friday 5 July - 11:00 - Badenoch early favourite to be next Tory leader

Kemi Badenoch is the favourite on the Betfair Exchange to the next Conservative leader after Rishi Sunak resigned following his party's crushing election defeat.

At the time of writing, with two of the 650 seats left to declare, the Tories have 121 seats, a loss of 251, and Keir Starmer will govern with a landslide majority in the House of Commons.

There will be a lot of soulsearching among Tory MPs and speculation is already rife about while lead them in opposition. Some of their big name politicians, who may have been in contention to succeed Sunak, lost their seats, including Penny Mordaunt who has previously stood for the leadership.

Ex-prime minister Liz Truss was also defeated in her constituency.

Badenoch is 4.2 to be next Tory leader and will have her supporters on the right of the party. She served as secretary of state for business and trade in Sunak's government and has been regarded as one of the Conservatives' rising stars.

She previously stood for Conservative leader in 2022 - an experience she will be able to draw on if she runs again this time around. Asked recently if she wanted to succeed Sunak, she said: "We will talk about leadership things after an election".

Tom Tugendhat 4.9 has also stood for Conservative leader in the past and subsequently had a job in government. He comes from the party's more liberal One Nation wing and could position himself as an antidote to some of the more right-wing candidates.

Priti Patel 8.8 would certainly fall into the latter category. As Home Secretary under Boris Johnson she was an uncompromising figure but remained popular with many party members. Patel has also proved that she can bounce back, having been sacked by Theresa May before returning to the frontline under Johnson.

Patel's successor in the Home Office, Suella Braverman 10.0, also has leadership ambitions. She is a divisive figure, however, and was sacked by Sunak. But she would not be afraid of taking the fight to the Labour government or Reform MPs.

Robert Jenrick 13.0 and James Cleverly 13.5 may also choose to run after holding on to their seats.

The former campaigned in the build-up to the election as if he was already positioning himself for a crack at the job.

Cleverely said last night that he would not rush to quick judgements about the election result and took a swipt at Reform.

Nigel Farage became an MP at the eighth attempt, winning Clacton for Reform UK last night. Now he is 24.0 to become the next Conservative leader.

He attacked the Tories throughout the campaign but there are many within their ranks who admire him.

Could Farage switch from Reform to the Tories and mount a bid to be leader? The odds indicate that there are some punters who believe it could happen. His party won plenty of votes last night, taking them from both Labour and the Conservatives.


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