Irish Election: Punters back favourites Fianna Fail and Fine Gael drift on eve of vote

• Get the latest odds for Irish General Election

• Vote takes place on Friday 29 November

• Fianna Fail favourites to win most seats

• Fine Gael odds get bigger on eve of election

It's election day in Ireland on Friday and the closer we get to voting, the longer the odds on a Fine Gael victory.

Fine Gael are lead by current Taoiseach (Irish prime minister) Simon Harris. They are currently the biggest party in the Dáil (lower house of the Irish parliament) after they won the most seats at the last election.

But the chances of Fine Gael winning the most seats in 2024 are diminishing, according to the Betfair Exchange market, and if that proves correct the blame could be laid squarely at Harris's door.

Who will win the most seats in the Irish election?

Fine Gael have drifted to 4.77/2 (a 21% chance) since Wednesday when they were 3.55/2.

In the same period, support for Fianna Fail has firmed up and they are now the 1.4640/85 favourites (68.5%) having shortened from 1.768/11.

You can view the odds in a snapshot view in the below Betfair Predicts graphic.

The odds reflect polls which have shown support for Fine Gael dwindling from around 25% to 20% in the last two weeks. This was attributed in part to a campaign gaffe from Harris who was caught on camera dismissing the concerns of a careworker.

The footage was seen as so damaging that Fine Gael's subsequent polling plummet has been dubbed the "Simon slump" and the odds on him winning another term as Taoiseach have drifted to 3.47 (29%)

Every Irish government for the past century has been led by one of Ireland's two centre-right parties, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. At the last election, in 2020, the two main parties went into coalition together for the first time, joined by the smaller Green party.

That was after Sinn Fein won the popular vote and finished with the second most seats. Sinn Fein's popularity has declined since then and at 8.07/1 they are third in the Exchange market for Friday's election.

Who will be Ireland's next Taoiseach?

Fianna Fail and Fine Gael are seen as the most likely partners in another coalition government, as the two parties of the centre have both pledged to govern without Sinn Fein.

If the Betfair Exchange odds are correct and Fianna Fail take the most seats, their leader Micheal Martin is 1.4740/85 (68%) to become the Taoiseach (prime minister) - a job he did from 2020-2022 - again.

Ireland uses proportional represenation as its electoral system, meaning voters put an X against their candidate of choice, ranking them in order of preference.

This can lead to a protracted count so don't expect a quick result. After the count, coalition negotiations are expected to begin.

It has been a busy year for elections, with voters in the UK and US going to the polls in July and November respectively. Donald Trump's recent victory meant that the Betfair Exchange has correctly predicted the outcome of 23 of the last 25 major elections, so the markets are a valuable way of guaging which way the electorate is leaning.

Now read US Politics: Six reflections on Trump's historic election victory