Politics Explained

US Election: Americans are voting for more than their president on 5 November

United States Senate sign
The Republicans are favourite to win control of the Senate on 5 November

For the next instalment in our Politics Explained series Cai Wilshaw takes a deep dive into the US election to discuss what Americans are voting for on 5 November and finds that is much more than their next president...


On Tuesday 5 November, millions of Americans will go to the polls. To the outside world, they will be electing the President of the United States. But in reality, many more electoral choices are on the ballot paper.

Here's a rundown of the one that everyone is talking about as well as a few more that may have slipped under the radar.

The Presidential Election

The big election on everybody's minds is the Presidential contest between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. At the minute, the betting markets are showing Harris ahead at 20/211.95, while Trump is around 11/102.11.

There are also a number of parties and candidates with majority ballot access, or access to write-in voting, meaning in theory that they have the possibility to win the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.

These are:

Chase Oliver of the Libertarian Party

Jill Stein of the Green Party

Claudia De la Cruz of the Party for Socialism and Liberation

Cornel West - an Independent

Peter Sonski of the American Solidarity Party

Shiva Ayyadurai - an Independent

None of them feature in Betfair's polls for Next Election Winner - showing how much of a long shot Presidential bids outside of the two-party system are.

Republicans favourites to win US Senate on 5 November

A total of 34 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate are due to be decided this November.

For context, US Senators' six-year terms are staggered, meaning that every two years while a new batch of Senators is elected, the entire composition of the Senate does not change. This means around a third of the Senate seats are up for re-election every two years.

These contests are serious business - the average campaign spending for a winning Senate candidate in 2022 was $26.53 million.

And the Senate is often a launch-pad for an attempt to become a Party's candidate for President, meaning a number of Senators are household names - current Senators include Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Mitt Romney, Rand Paul, and Republican vice presidential candidate JD Vance.

Trump and Vance.jpg

Senate elections are important because they will dictate which party holds majority control of the US Senate. The US Senate coordinates with the US House of Representatives to pass legislation, but also holds a critical role in conducting confirmation hearings for Cabinet Secretaries, federal judges, and many other officials in the US Government.

This year, the current slim Democratic control of the Senate is in jeopardy.

FiveThirtyEight, a pollster that also aggregates polling results, suggests that it is no surprise that the Republicans are favoured to win control of the Senate in this year's election.

The Betfair Exchange Senate markets suggest the same thing. Republicans are well ahead in the market for Senate Control after 2024 at 3/101.30 (a whopping 77% chance of winning).

Meanwhile, the Democrats are trailing at 14/53.80.

US House of Representatives election betting

By contrast to the US Senate's staggered timeline, the US House of Representatives - the Congress' lower chamber - has elections for all its seats every two years, with the elections in between presidential elections called "Midterm Elections".

This means that all 435 members of the House of Representatives are running for election every two years - making governing and campaigning at the same time a mean feat.

On this front, the Democrats have something to celebrate. In the polling average by FiveThirtyEight, Democrats still hold a 2.3% advantage over the Republicans, which has improved of late.

This is mirrored in the Betfair Exchange odds where the Democrats to win back the House of Representatives is 4/61.67 (60%). But it's still close - the Republicans can be backed at 5/42.25.

If the Republicans clinch the House, that will present a huge challenge to Harris's Presidency should she win the White House.

State elections on 5 November

Looking away from Washington, D.C., on a state-wide level there are a number of important elections that also take place on 5 November.

The first is elections for Governor. Governors of States in the US have huge decision-making and legislative power - over government budgeting, official appointments, and sometimes roles as commander of their state's National Guard.

Eleven Governorships will be up for renewal in this Election.

Other state-wide elected positions on the ballot

There are a number of other critical state-wide positions that are voted on in elections, including the election in November.

Attorneys General - the chief legal advisors to state governments - will be elected in 10 states. Secretaries of State - who administer the business of state government - will be elected in 7 states. In addition, most state-level legislatures will hold elections in 2024.

US local elections

One shouldn't forget that US voters will have a whole range of local elections to consider. Some may be familiar to UK punters - mayoral elections, which in the US are held throughout the year at different times.

They will also elect county council members for their local area, and even executive officials for counties and cities who perform a civil service-type role enacting the laws passed by local politicians.

In some states, they will elect roles such as the state auditor, the agriculture commissioner, the insurance commissioner, and elect members to the state boards of education! This adds to the lengthy list of considerations for the average American voter as they go to the polling booth to cast their vote.


Now read Betfair US election live blog for the latest betting news


GET £50 IN FREE BETS MULTIPLES WHEN YOU SPEND £10 ON THE BETFAIR SPORTSBOOK

New customers only. Bet £10 on the Betfair Sportsbook at odds of min EVS (2.0) and receive £50 in FREE Bet Builders, Accumulators or Multiples to use on any sport. T&Cs apply.

Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.