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Why did age become big question in US election?
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Why was the Biden-Trump matchup a record-breaker?
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Is the US governed by the elderly?
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How does Harris switch the dial on age concerns?
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The constitution is clear on age
As we explained in a previous article, one of the few rules about who can run for President of the United States is that they must be aged 35 or over to serve.
This is set out in the US Constitution and there are rules for other offices too. To be a US senator, a person must be 30 or over. To be a Representative, someone has to be 25 or over.
There are also age requirements for some other state-wide offices, and some states even have a minimum age for any elected office.
Yet recently, the debate has not been about the lower age limit, but rather the higher age limit.
Age has become a big flashpoint in US Politics, but how did that come about, why is it such a big deal, and what will happen next?
The Biden-Trump matchup was a record-breaker
When Joe Biden was the Democratic candidate for president against Donald Trump for the Republicans, the match-up was a record-breaker. The pair became the two oldest candidates ever to seek the US Presidency.
Joe Biden was 81, while Donald Trump was 78. For context, only 12 out of 45 US Presidents were aged 60 or older when inaugurated. Biden and Trump were the only Presidents older than 70 at the start of their terms as president in 2020 and 2016 respectively.
So we spent much of this year with a record-breakingly elderly presidential election matchup.
In June 2024, a Gallup poll suggested 67% of Americans thought Biden was too old to be President. Only 37% of Americans said the same about Trump, despite the small age gap between them.
Much was made of Biden's age during his candidacy, with the press capitalising on high-profile gaffes such as stumbling or falling during rallies, mistaking countries (twice saying Russia was losing its "war on Iraq"), seemingly freezing during press conferences, and losing his train of thought during press conferences or indeed, famously, the debate between himself and Trump.
This was reflected in the Betfair Exchange US electionn winner market. On the 19th July - just a few days before Biden stepped aside after the fallout from his disastrous debate with Trump - Biden's odds of winning the Presidency lengthened to 15/116.00.
At that time, Trump was on the up at 3/51.60, while Harris - still not a shoo-in to be the Democratic nominee - was at 9/25.50.
Trump is not immune from age concerns
Trump has made similar errors to those of Biden's candidacy. The former-president recently suggested there was an audience at his September 10th debate with Kamala Harris when there was none, and he has also mixed up countries.
A New York Times analysis found that Trump's speeches have become more rambling - they now last 82 minutes on average, compared to 45 minutes in 2016.
He uses definitive terms such as "always" or "never" 13% more than he did in 2016. He also uses 32% more negative words than positive words, and 69% more swear words than his first campaign.
Many experts suggest these are all signs of ageing.
Anthony Scaramucci, who was briefly communications director in the White House under Trump, said of his former-boss: "He's lost an ability to put powerful sentences together"
Claims that US is a gerontocracy are fueling concerns
All this might be dismissed, if it weren't for the fact that the US political elites have trended much older in recent years.
The US has faced claims that it is a gerontocracy - i.e. a state governed by old people - given that so many national politicians in positions of power have been older than the norm in recent years.
The Senate Majority Leader for the Democrats, Chuck Schumer, is 71. Mitch McConnell, who is Schumer's opposite number for the Republicans, is 81.
McConnell himself suffered a series of gaffes last year where he seemed to freeze in the middle of a press conference or interview, and has since announced he will retire from his leadership role after the election.
When Nancy Pelosi was the Speaker in the House of Representatives, many criticised her for continuing to pursue re-selection as the Democratic leader in the House. She is now 84, though she is no longer leading the Democrats in the House.
This is the third-oldest House and Senate since 1789, and every one of the 20 oldest members of Congress is over 80.
In 1981, the median age of a US Senator was 52 - in 2022, it was 65.
This is where Kamala Harris comes in...
This trend has given Kamala Harris an opening, politically.
At the sprightly age of 59, she can well claim the advantage on Trump when it comes to age. This may make her more appealing to younger voters, too, and more in-tune with what those voters are expecting to hear.
As the graph above shows, the Betfair Exchange odds for the Democrats to win the presidency in 2024 have improved dramatically since Biden stood aside.
Harris and Trump have been neck-and-neck for weeks now, although has pulled away in the past 48 hours, when almost £2m was traded in the election winner market. Trump is the favourite at 20/211.95 while Harris sits at odds of 11/102.11.
Yet this is still a drastic improvement for the Democrats since the final days of Biden's candidacy.
Given the primary worry about Biden's candidacy was his age, it wouldn't be a stretch to assume that Harris' youth may have played a part in bringing voters back over to the Democratic side.
Polling by Pew Research Centre in September did suggest that young voters see Harris' youth as an asset, and Trump's age as a liability.
Time will tell if this makes a key difference on 5 November.