Canadian Politics: Mark Carney evens favourite to succeed Justin Trudeau

• Trudeau will step down as PM and Liberal leader

• Carney evens to succeed Trudeau ahead of election

• Conservative Party heavy odds-on to win power in 2025

Mark Carney is evens on the Betfair Sportsbook to succeed Justin Trudeau as leader of Canada's Liberal Party after the PM announced his decision to stand down.

Trudeau has been in office since 2015 and will remain at the helm until a new Liberal leader is selected. He has prorogued parliament, meaning all debates and legislation are suspended until 24 March, while the Liberals elect their next leader.

The Liberals hope to have a new leader in place by the end of the prorogation period.

Carney 1/1 to be next Liberal Party leader

Carney is the favourite to succeed Trudeau as leader of the Liberal Party. UK readers will recognise his name from his period as governor of the Bank of England from 2013 to 2020.

Former-finance minister Chrystia Freeland 5/42.25 is not far behind in the early betting while, at longer odds, transport minister Anita Anand 7/42.75 is also thought to be a potential candidate.

Who will win Canada's next election?

Whoever becomes the next Liberal leader could call a general election almost immediately. The country's law says it must have an election by October 2025 so it is just a question of when, not it, they hold one this year.

The market indicates it will happen soon after the prorogation with a March to May election 4/111.36 on Betfair Sportsbook.

June to September comes next in the market at 2/13.00 and, if you think the new Liberal leader will play for time and hold off holding the vote, you can get 11/26.50 on it happening anywhere between 1 September and the cut off date of 19 October.

As for who will win the next Canadian election, many of the latest polls give the country's Conservative party a double digit lead. They have brought no confidence votes in parliament in an attempt to trigger an election and are likely to do so again when parliament returns.

So whoever succeeds Trudeau as Liberal leader could go straight into a doomed election campaign. The Betfair odds certainly don't make encouraging reading for Liberals which make them 10/111.00 to win while the Conservatives are 1/501.02.

Put like that, the leadership of the Liberal Party looks like a poisoned chalice.

Betting.Betfair is where you can read the best politics betting coverage in 2025.

Donald Trump's victory in November's US election meant that the Betfair Exchange has correctly predicted the outcome of 23 of the last 25 major elections, so the markets are a valuable way of gauging which way the electorate is leaning.

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