Saturday Horse Racing Tips: Katie Midwinter's best bets including 33/1 Cesarewitch fancy at Newmarket

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York, 13:30 - Back Divine Whisper E/W @ 8/19.00

In York's opening contest on Saturday, the Listed Rockingham Stakes, Divine Whisper is one to note for George Boughey in the hands of Tom Marquand. She has to find further improvement on ratings compared with some of the boys ahead of her in the market, but is entitled to continue progressing having made only three starts to date.

The daughter of Mehmas was only narrowly denied by subsequent dual Listed winner Big Negotiator on debut over 5f here in June, before getting off the mark at Windsor, justifying short odds of 2/91.22 on that occasion.

When last seen at Goodwood, the filly performed well in third to Wild Blossom, and there could be more to come from her. She needs to take another step forward as she makes her first appearance in Stakes company, but may be worth keeping onside having shaped with promise to date.

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York, 14:05 - Back French Duke E/W @ 9/110.00

Hamad Al Jehani-trained French Duke was only narrowly denied at the Ebor Festival here over a mile-and-a-half in his penultimate start, beaten a nose by Plage De Havre at odds of 14/115.00 in a close finish.

Over a shorter distance in the hands of in-form rider Danny Tudhope this time around, the five-year-old could gain redemption on the Knavesmire. He wasn't at his best at Newbury over a trip just shy of a mile-and-three-quarters when last seen, but the return to York and the drop back in distance could suit, and he has proven stamina over further which should allow him to stay on well in the closing stages.

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Dewhurst Stakes, Newmarket, 15:00 - Back Great Barrier Reef E/W @ 6/17.00

A small but select field is set to line up in the Group One Dewhurst Stakes won last year by the brilliant, sadly ill-fated Gewan, and by a number of hugely talented juveniles before him, including City Of Troy in recent renewals.

Team Ballydoyle are strongly represented this time around with exciting Camelot colt Darkness Falls, whose hugely impressive Group One win at the Irish Champions Festival was franked by runner-up Jesus Green on Wednesday. 

The mount of Ryan Moore, Darkness Falls is the biggest threat to unbeaten favourite Desert Castle, a recent Group Two winner for Charlie Appleby, according to the market, but Great Barrier Reef shouldn't be discounted and makes appeal at the prices.

The Coventry Stakes winner lost his unbeaten tag when narrowly denied by Push The Boat Out in what could prove to be a good quality renewal of the Group Three Round Tower Stakes at the Curragh in August. The winner that day was subsequently beaten in the Middle Park Stakes here, but that run at Group One level could be worth upgrading as he stayed on well when fourth to Orthodox.

Great Barrier Reef needs to step up further, but he has gained some valuable experience to date and is unexposed at this level. He may not be the yard's first string, according to jockey bookings and the market, but neither was 2020's 10/111.00 winner St Mark's Basilica.

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Notable winners from Katie in recent weeks

• King Cuan @ 7/4
• Green Empress @ 2/1
• Haffner @ 4/1
• Tribal Chief @ 10/3
• Dragon Of Malta @ 13/2
• Good Morning Alex @ 14/1
• Copper Knight @ 13/2
• Tyger Bay @ 14/1
• Who's Glen @ 15/2
• Brian @ 11/2
• Sunriseontheboyne @ 11/1
• Giant @ 20/1

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Bet of the day: Fairyhouse, 15:10 - Back Smallcraftwarning @ 10/34.33

Bidding for a hat-trick, likeable gelding Smallcraftwarning could be worth keeping onside back over fences on a potentially lenient rating of 97. He recently won over timber from a mark of 105 when sent off as the well-backed 4/15.00 favourite at Gowran Park, and, with proven form over fences, could go in again in current form.

Difficult to oppose for John Patrick Ryan, the nine-year-old has been running consistently well of late and should give another good account of himself under Daniel King.

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York, 15:17 - Back Ardisia E/W @ 28/129.00

Three-year-old gelding Ardisia shaped with promise as a juvenile last term, achieving Listed success as well as finishing a close second to a subsequent Group One winner in Mission Central at Ascot. He performed well over course-and-distance in the competitive Harry's Half Million by Goffs, won by Song Of The Clyde, placing third in that valuable juvenile contest.

This year, the Hugo Palmer-trained contender has proven he has trained on but is yet to add to the five wins he recorded during his debut campaign.

In his penultimate start at Goodwood, he was beaten only a length by Flash Harry from the same mark, following on from a creditable fourth in Listed company, and he could outrun his odds in this field, holding each-way claims at the weights under David Probert.

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Cesarewitch Handicap, Newmarket, 15:40 - Back Mountain Road E/W @ 17/29.50

Jim Goldie-trained Mountain Road has been in good form since returning from a 582-day break in the spring, recording form figures of 435132 this year. He has emerged with great credit in both of his latest two runs in tough company, and could put in another threatening effort.

No stranger to outrunning his odds, and still potentially on an upward trajectory despite being a seven-year-old, Mountain Road is a likeable performer over the staying trip and has put in noteworthy efforts in both of his latest two runs, including at the Ebor Festival. He makes each-way appeal under Paul Mulrennan, likely to be running on strongly late on.

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Cesarewitch Handicap, Newmarket, 15:40 - Back Tactician E/W @ 33/134.00

Tactician is another stayer who returned from a lengthy absence this season, finishing third in Listed company at Chester on the back of a 700-day layoff during the summer. He stayed on well over the extended mile-and-three-quarters that day, and, if he can improve for his return to action, he could be able to make his presence felt from a mark of 102 with 7lb claimer Charlie Tucker in the saddle, easing his burden off top-weight.

Unexposed and lightly-raced, the five-year-old son of Lope De Vega shaped with promise during his debut campaign in 2024, winning twice for Andrew Balding. There may be more to come from the gelding, who is a contender to note at a price.

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Chepstow, 16:02 - Back The Mighty Celt E/W @ 13/27.50

The Mighty Celt had shown promise last year in France when trained by Noel George and Amanda Zetterholm, particularly when chasing home subsequent Grade One-winning Leopard Du Berlais in an Auteuil Grade Two. He finished an encouraging third on stable debut for Dan Skelton earlier this year, before putting in an eye-catching run when sixth at odds of 22/123.00 in the juvenile handicap hurdle won by Saratoga at the Cheltenham Festival.

Sent off at odds of 12/113.00 at Aintree, he finished seventh of 21 runners, again shaping with some potential but perhaps needing further experience and a bit more luck, too.

The return from a break shouldn't be an issue for the gelding considering he has form when fresh previously, including when winning on debut over the talented, sadly ill-fated Precious Man, and when finishing a length second in a Listed contest last autumn. Should he be ready for this challenge following a 183-day absence, the four-year-old could be dangerous from a potentially lenient mark for a formidable operation.

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York, 16:32 - Back Real Dream E/W @ 20/121.00

Top weight Real Dream wasn't at his best in the Ebor here during the summer despite travelling well into the race. He weakened quickly in that competitive feature contest, but bounced back to some form when fourth at Newbury when last seen.

Although he failed to make a serious impact in his latest outing, he stuck to the task well, showing encouraging signs that he's still capable of performing. Should he take a step forward in this drop in class, he could have a part to play.

The Ian Williams-trained contender has form over the staying trips and was notably a creditable close fourth to Sons And Lovers in a Grade Two Riyadh handicap last winter. He finished fifth of 22 runners in the Ebor last year behind subsequent Breeders' Cup winner Ethical Diamond, following a narrow defeat at Listed level, and, despite being inconsistent this year, has shown glimpses of form.

This could be a feasible opportunity for Real Dream to make the frame once again. He's a likeable performer on his day and may be worth keeping the faith in.

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Newmarket, 16:50 - Back Silver Sovereign @ 7/24.50

Silver Sovereign is bidding for a hat-trick of wins, upped 7lb from her latest success at Newbury on handicap debut. The rise in the weights may not be enough to deter the progress of this unexposed Ten Sovereigns filly, and she could pose a threat in this 7f handicap. 

Trained by Clive Cox, the well-bred daughter of Silver Dawn is a granddaughter of Strictly Dancing, daughter of Nunthorpe Stakes winner Lochangel. There's plenty of black-type in the family and this filly could go on to bigger things in future.

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