Dewhurst Big Race Verdict: Back Desert Castle to be toppled in Saturday feature

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Saturday 10th October, 15:00 at Newmarket
Live on ITV Racing

Appleby and O'Brien have dominated Dewhurst in recent times

Racing was robbed of last year's Dewhust winner Gewan and the champion two-year-old who sadly never got to justify his one-time 2,000 Guineas price when he suffered a fatal injury galloping at Kempton.

Gewan was Andrew Balding's second winner of the race since 2022, so he can lay a glove on Charlie Appleby and Aidan O'Brien's dominance, who between them have won seven of the last 10 editions.

A fair-to-middling trainer cannot get a look in, and it's where the big bucks reside as the field potentially is overloaded with talent. A stallion-maker race too.

Appleby's Desert Castle is a 4/51.80 favourite on the Sportsbook, followed by O'Brien's pair of aces in Darkness Falls 7/42.75 and Great Barrier Reef 6/17.00. It's 40s bar if you fancy a shock with just two others.

Form and trainer quotes

Desert Castle, a really imposing colt with a build that befits a son of Frankel who won this race in 2010, is a perfect two-from-two.

2 (3)

Desert Castle

• J: William Buick
• T: Charlie Appleby
• F: 11

• SBK 8/11
• EXC 1.85

He looked a horse of some merit winning on debut on the July Course when travelling strongly, in fact too powerfully and galloped away with hooves that looked like giants plates of meat. He is some unit.

At Doncaster, winning the Champagne Stakes, his potential brilliance was again evident as he travelled strongly early on but still looked a touch green with the head in the late stages. Perhaps he was wondering where the others were?

The Timefigure wasn't as impressive as debut, but it's worth noting his penultimate furlong in both has been rapid. In the Champagne he clocked 11.09. On debut he ran 10.88 which takes some doing first up off the shelf.

From 94P he was marked up to 113p from the Halifax Timeform crew and his trainer Appleby said post Doncaster: "Desert Castle was more professional at Doncaster compared to his debut and I think he has come forward again since.

"We are taking on a horse who is already a G1 winner in Darkness Falls, but we are pleased with our horse and he has developed. It looks a good race and we are looking forward to it."

Darkness Falls is a different model. Already proven over 1m and 1m1f, he won the Group 1 Golden Fleece at Leopardstown.

1 (5)

Darkness Falls (Ire)

• J: Ryan Moore
• T: Aidan O'Brien, Ireland
• F: 311

• SBK 13/8
• EXC 2.74

That performance didn't smack of speed despite its quality. He broke well early but found himself quite far back into the straight. However, Ryan Moore was boxing clever and when he was let go down that wide, golden Leopardstown path, he looked as majestic as an Admiral's ship.

His penultimate furlong on decent ground timed at 11.95 off a perfectly run 100% finish speed is nowhere near as fast as Desert Castle, but his end product was the only furlong to go under 13 seconds.

He did make all the running in rain-softened ground previously for his maiden - scoring by 7L.

His Timeform rating is 112p but the biggest burden comes from the man himself. The trainer glowingly said: "Darkness Falls could be our first Triple Crown horse since Camelot.

"He looks to have the capacity to stay, he has that speed," he told Coolmore.

"The next place to go with him is the thing. Do we go to the Dewhurst or the Futurity Trophy?

"It's possible he could go to the Dewhurst, he could have the pace for it. He is unusual, he has a super mind, he's a great traveller and he quickens so we'll see how he is, but he's obviously really exciting."

This is true Aidan. He is exciting.

Great Barrier Reef's claims of getting 1m in the future are not so certain, neither is the 7f a gimme either after his defeat in the Group 3 Round Tower last time.

It was all going so well at the Curragh, but his final furlong time was a full second slower than his penultimate one and he was chinned by Push The Boat. A piece of form that doesn't look so hot and his in-running backers came away from that with a 1.444/9 defeat in-play.

There was every chance he might have needed the run.

His Coventry Stakes win at Royal Ascot seems a long time ago now, and he did miss the Middle Park Stakes recently due to a poor scope. Plan A now goes to Plan B and he looks a good Breeders' Cup horse.

O'Brien said before the Middle Park: "We've been thinking of the race for him and we just thought it was quite a long time between runs if he hadn't run since the Coventry, so we've just been trying to get another run into him."

"We're not sure what his best trip is yet, we'll see as we go along, but he could stay a bit further," he added.

Big Race Verdict

It looks a fairly straightforward race to breakdown tactically. Jassas and Great Barrier Reef could both set the pace and Darkness Falls will be sure to get a tow from either with Desert Castle waited with for his customary penultimate furlong livener.

As brilliant as Desert Castle is, backing him at odds-on in my view is a risk just with how he carries his head at the end and the extra furlong.

Darkness Falls will be at his minimum distance back to 7f but he looks more of a polished product and finisher.

It's a great race to savour but at the 7/42.75 price discounting Great Barrier Reef, he might just have the staying abilities that are beyond the Godolphin fav, who has to get balanced in and out of the famous dip, which doesn't look certain.

Now read Betfair's Mark Milligan for his best bets of the day!