Horse Racing Tips

Saturday Epsom Derby Meeting Cheat Sheet: Expert tips and insight

Betfair ambassadors, Epsom Derby
Get the best bets and insight for Saturday at the Epsom Derby meeting

Get the best bets for Saturday at the 2024 Epsom Derby meeting live on ITV from our tipsters, the big race verdict for the feature and read Ryan Moore's exclusive insight on his rides...

  • Ryan Moore on City Of Troy's Derby chance

  • Daryl Carter gives his Derby verdict

  • Tony Calvin looking at a huge price in the Epsom feature

  • Kevin Blake Picks apart the Saturday Classic

Ryan Moore Superboost

If you fancy City Of Troy to bounce back from his 2,000 Guineas disappointment and run well in today's Epsom Derby for Ryan Moore, then you can back the champion 2yo to finish in the top five at the super-boosted price of 1/12.00 (from 2/51.40).

Betfair tipsters recommend their best bets for the 2024 Epsom Derby Meeting while our ambassador Ryan Moore provides exclusive insight on his chance in Saturday's feature contest in Surrey.


Daryl Carter's Epsom Derby Runner-by-Runner Guide

Daryl Carter: "As with the 2,000 Guineas, much of this race revolves around the well-being of 2-year-old superstar City Of Troy , who could easily rip this field apart if at his outstanding best.

"I don't believe he was beaten on merit at Newmarket, and I am happy to put a line through that effort.

"The confidence in the camp is high, but all eyes will be on how the market takes to him throughout Saturday.

"Diera Mile could outrun his wild odds and looks best of those at a price."

1. City Of Troy
2. Deira Mile
3. Los Angeles

Listen to Racing Only Bettor...

Tony Calvin adds a further three bets on Derby day

Tony Calvin: "The six in the betting immediately behind City Of Troy all have plausible claims, but a horse that used to be owned by Al Shakh (and for all I know he still may be involved in the Green Team Racing syndicate - actually it sounds as if he is, so I hope he has a very good day), Deira Mile, could also have a part to play in here from stall 14.

"He is available at 30.029/1 on the exchange, but I like the 25/126.00 and four places that the Sportsbook offers. That's the best combination in the marketplace, so I am going each way.

"He got beaten at 1/51.20 on his final start for Charlie Johnston before being moved to Owen Burrows under the new ownership structure, and he duly came out and ran a cracker when a staying-on 2 ¾ length fourth to Ancient Wisdom, Devil's Point and God's Window in the Group 1 Futurity as a 50s chance, with Dancing Gemini and Diego Velazquez in behind.

"That's a tidy bit of form for a horse trading as big as he is.

"He confirmed his well-being with a smooth win over 1m2f at Windsor on his return and his sire, Camelot, would give you hope he will adequately see out the extra 2f here. The dam stayed 1m3f, too.

"Now, I wouldn't be a particular fan of the jockey, as regular readers will know - prove me wrong, Jimbo - and I don't know what to make of the first-time cheekpieces (the stable has a poor record with these, see below, and the horse's two siblings did nothing when tried in them) but I do rate Owen Burrows and I am happy to give the ground-versatile selection a spin at the price.

Ryan Moore: City Of Troy the one to beat if back to best

Ryan Moore: "Now, this is an open Derby, everyone can see that, though undoubtedly most of the focus will be on my horse. Perhaps understandably so, given how good he was last year and how he ran in the Guineas.

"We were clearly all a touch bemused by that performance at the time but hopefully Aidan has got him back to somewhere near his brilliant 2yo best at home, and if he has then he will take all the beating. We always thought this trip would suit him at three but he has to go out and prove it now, and even more so after Newmarket. But there is only one place to find out, and we are here.

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"I think you can make good cases for his stablemate Los Angeles, Ambiente Friendly and Ancient Wisdom, but the ratings tell you that they probably all have to step up on what they have achieved to win an average Derby. That is why so many are fancying their chances here and, outside of them, I'd throw Macduff and Dancing Gemini into the mix, too.

"Let's just hope my horse can show his true worth. He is drawn one, but there is no point dwelling on that."

Kevin Blake's Epsom Derby Verdict: City Of Troy to stamp his class

Kevin Blake: "In terms of the contenders, the Derby has entered arguably it's most fascinating phase in over a decade as the Galileo era comes to an end and we enter a new phase. Galileo's sons and grandsons still feature prominently, but they are scattered all around the bloodstock world and this new era is likely to be characterised by deep competitiveness and a wider cast of characters.

"Mind, Galileo may have left us, but Aidan O'Brien is still very much with us and even without one of his sons of Galileo putting his hand up high enough to make it to the Derby, he still has the top two in the betting in City Of Troy and Los Angeles.

"City Of Troy is sure to divide opinion. A brilliant European Champion Two-Year-Old, the second highest-rated that O'Brien has ever trained, but he ran very poorly indeed in the 2000 Guineas. Why did he run so poorly? Can he bounce back? I believe he can. Let me tell you why.

"From the outset of City Of Troy's career, his stride frequencies of 2.3/2.13 max/min strides per second (sps) have suggested he is a middle-distance horse in the making. Indeed, those frequencies are very close to the average stride frequencies of the last 10 winners of the Derby (2.32/2.11).

"He was able to express himself so brilliantly as a two-year-old as the pace in his races was kind enough early to keep him in his comfort zone and allow him to do his thing late on. The 2000 Guineas was different. He was up in the heat of a well-run race that saw him cover the first four furlongs approximately 12 lengths faster than he had in any of his races as a two-year-old. He was out of his comfort zone and paid for it. I believe it can be forgiven.

"The much longer distance of the Derby and the lower speed of the early stages will be much more like what City Of Troy was designed for. Given just how brilliant he was as a two-year-old, with his form being far in excess of anything his Derby rivals have yet produced, I believe that it would be very dangerous to bullishly proclaim his price as being too short based on his Newmarket disappointment.

"It will be fascinating to see how the market develops around him, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if he is stronger in the market than many seem to expect."

Daryl Carter's five for Epsom Derby Day including a 3pt NAP

Daryl Carter: "I strongly fancy the chances of Persica - 9/25.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - a horse I had high hopes for last year and on that holds outstanding claims on the back of an excellent run in the London Gold Cup just 14 days ago.

"The always typically strong Newbury London Gold Cup is a race to follow through the season, and this looks like a far weaker assignment for the Richard Hannon three-year-old, who is clearly on a feasible mark on the latest evidence. He had to come from well off the gallop at Newbury to score and made his challenge away from the favoured rail, which the first four adopted for an advantage.

"That run was a step forward from his seasonal return where he bumped into the 2,000 Guineas winner Notable Speach at Kempton and a horse who has been given an opening rating of 97 (5 lb higher than the selection) at the same time the fourth is a winner since rated 90 (receiving six pounds) and the fifth chased home Never So Brave at Chester off of a rating of 97.

"Looking back at last season also indicates that he is a well-treated horse with a brilliant win at Salisbury over the now 95-rated Finbar Furey and 109-rated Ten Bob Tony in effortless style.

"Today's conditions will not hold any fears, and he can kick off Derby day with a good victory. Back him at 5/23.50 or bigger."

Eight bets from Betfair's best for the Epsom Derby

James Mackie: "In what looks like an extremely open year for an Epsom Derby there will be many different opinions on who can win the great race in 2024.

"The question you have to ask yourself is City Of Troy too short off the back of his flop run in the 2000 Guineas, and for me he is.

"For that reason, I am taking a chance on the second string for Aidan O'Brien with Los Angeles, who has plenty going for him.

"Unbeaten on his three starts showing versatility when it comes to ground conditions, which may be needed looking at the forecast ahead of Saturday, he has won on both good and testing ground.

"A winner of a Group 1 on just his second start as a two-year-old in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud over 1m2f, he came back this year looking to have improved again.

"Over the same distance at Leopardstown in the Group 3 Derby Trial, the further he went the better he became, and it was a perfect prep run for the Epsom feature, winning comfortably by a length.

"He is sure to improve again, should handle the tricky Epsom track and looks a clear stayer who will revel in the extra 2f."

Alan Dudman - Back two Saturday chances on Derby Day for Epsom double

Alan Dudman says: "I certainly like something at a price in the Derby with Deira Mile at 25/126.00 each-way, but at the start of the week having toyed with Ancient Wisdom as a runner, many people have been on weather watch with him.

"He needs some sort of soft in the description, and we could get our wish in what looks a wide-open race.

"Dante form is to the fore here, and while he was thumped by Economics in that at York by 6L, he didn't have his ideal set of circumstances as the ground was on the quicker side and he'll surely come into his own over 1m4f.

"It didn't help matters that William Buick got into a bit of a mess in behind when meeting trouble, but there were no excuses at all as he wouldn't have laid a glove on the winner.

Stamina looks his forte, and the more rain the better and his stamina won the day in last term's Group 1 Futurity. His trainer Charlie Appleby has been steadfast in saying he's a Derby horse in terms of the trip - even going back to his excellent win in the Autumn Stakes as a juvenile."

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Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.