Daryl Carter Tips

Daryl Carter's Tips: Daryl's five for Epsom Derby Day including a 3pt NAP

Daryl Carter.
Daryl Carter has a 3pt Saturday NAP.

Daryl Carter has five selections for Saturday's racing, all from Epsom. He hopes to kick off with a 3pt NAP and says City Of Troy can win the Derby...

  • Hannon can strike in the opener on Saturday

  • Astral Beau is overpriced

  • Don't be foolish and take on Troy


Ryan Moore Superboost

If you fancy City Of Troy to bounce back from his 2,000 Guineas disappointment and run well in today's Epsom Derby for Ryan Moore, then you can back the champion 2yo to finish in the top five at the super-boosted price of 1/12.00 (from 2/51.40).


13:25 Epsom - Back Persica @ 9/25.50 3pt win

I strongly fancy the chances of Persica - 9/25.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - a horse I had high hopes for last year and on that holds outstanding claims on the back of an excellent run in the London Gold Cup just 14 days ago.

The always typically strong Newbury London Gold Cup is a race to follow through the season, and this looks like a far weaker assignment for the Richard Hannon three-year-old, who is clearly on a feasible mark on the latest evidence. He had to come from well off the gallop at Newbury to score and made his challenge away from the favoured rail, which the first four adopted for an advantage.

That run was a step forward from his seasonal return where he bumped into the 2,000 Guineas winner Notable Speach at Kempton and a horse who has been given an opening rating of 97 (5 lb higher than the selection) at the same time the fourth is a winner since rated 90 (receiving six pounds) and the fifth chased home Never So Brave at Chester off of a rating of 97.

Looking back at last season also indicates that he is a well-treated horse with a brilliant win at Salisbury over the now 95-rated Finbar Furey and 109-rated Ten Bob Tony in effortless style.

Today's conditions will not hold any fears, and he can kick off Derby day with a good victory. Back him at 5/23.50 or bigger.


14:00 Epsom - Back Royal Dress @ BSP 1pt

There are two to consider in this race. The first is our big-priced Goodwood winner Royal Dress who took a good step forward on seasonal return for new connections sporting a first-time hood and remains entirely unexposed at this 1m distance.

It was frustrating watching Richard Hannon drop her down in the distance last year when her dam's side screams stamina, and her visual performances and time figures all pointed to moving to 1m or further. She holds a good record on ground soft or worse, with form figures reading 1011, with her only blip under a claiming jockey at Haydock over six furlongs last season.

She again has ideal conditions to strike today, and it is well worth chancing her at 8/19.00 or bigger considering the good start to the year she made last term.


14:00 Epsom - Back Astral Beau @ 14/115.00 1pt

The second selection, and possibly the most compelling, is Astral Beau - 14/115.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who needs forgiving a below-par run at Newmarket last time but holds brilliant claims outside of that.

She was a strong second in this race last year on unfavoured good to firm ground, and returning to today's softer surface is a big plus. The five-year-old has found only three horses too good on a softer surface. Those are Group 1 Lockinge, second Charyn, and two Group 1 winners in Al Husn and Via Sistina.

Today's contest is much easier on paper than she has had for some time, and she looks overpriced at any bigger than 7/18.00.


14:35 Epsom - Back Epictetus @ BSP 1pt

Perhaps this race is asking for an upset, and it may pay to give Epictetus another chance now faced with a slower surface and having had the reappearance to blow away the cobwebs following a gelding operation.

The cheekpieces go back on today and have been worn in all his big assignments (to no good effect). He has bounced back out of the blue previously when scoring at Goodwood.

This race is asking for something to step forward, and it is hard to rid the early promise that he offered when second to Auguste Rodin in the Group 1 Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes at Doncaster. He is a course winner and handled this track really well when landing the Blue Riband Trial, and today's 1m is more suitable than the ten furlongs he tackled there.

He gets the vote at 8/19.00 or bigger with Regal Reality, unsure to enjoy today's ground conditions, and the rest have questions to answer.


16:30 Epsom - Back City Of Troy @ 4.94/1 2pt

City Of Troy could go either way in the market, and to be honest, it's tough to price him up on the back of his Newmarket flop. However, I have little doubt that he is the most talented horse in the field, and I am surprised by how many people are unwilling to forgive his first run of the season.

It was too bad to be true - only one horse was slower than him in the fourth furlong and that was Night Raider. Given how far horses beat him he had trounced last season, it simply could not be his true running. Therefore, he was not beaten on merit, and I am happy to keep the faith with him. Improvement is surely forthcoming over this Derby distance on his pedigree, and it's wise to remember the leap forward he took on the figures from his debut run to his Superlative Stakes victory on his second outing last term.

Only Pinatubo has bettered the speed figures he clocked at Newmarket that day in recent years, and the confidence in the camp is folly to ignore. However, the nonsense that Justify progeny doesn't train on is worth ignoring. It's simply too small of a sample size to suggest such a thing, and that's without me listing the winners this season.

This is not a strong renewal of the Derby, and the fact that the market has his stablemate Los Angeles as next in the market and a horse that was beaten out of sight in the Dante by a Maiden winner should give enough indication of the depth of this race.

If City Of Troy is near his two-year-old form, where his best furlong was always his last, he will take a world of beating in this race. I am happy at 4.94/1 and price is very subjective, he could easily go off 8.07/1 in which I will go back in or he could go off closer to 3.02/1.


Now Read: Daryl's Runner-By-Runner Epsom Derby Guide Here.


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DARYL'S P/L

2024 P/L = Next update (monthly) June 2ND

2024 P/L = +74.43 ROI 18.10%

BSP P/L = +79.1 ROI 19.34%

2024 P/L Ante-post = +4

DARYL'S P/L HISTORY

2021 P/L = +187pts 12% ROI

2022 P/L = + 137.1pts ROI 8.72% +22.7pts BSP 1.44% ROI

2023 P/L = +112.63pts ROI 8.86% +99.4pts BSP 7.84% ROI

2023 P/L (Incl ante) Total = +146.63 ROI 11.5%

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