Saturday Racing Tips: Josephine and the Boy can team up for Donny win

I covered the November Handicap in my ante-post column on Tuesday and I am more than happy with my position on Fattsota in the 1m4f handicap at 15:35.

He got declared for starters, unlike Higher Power who was a no-show on Thursday morning after being backed from 12/1 to 8/1 on Wednesday, and all my arguments for him earlier in the week stand.

He ran OK last time, he has come down in the weights this season, is proven on fast ground and has run excellent races on both his starts here. He hails from a stable who have been in fair nick in the past fortnight or so and if he gets an easy time of it on the lead, so much the better.

He hasn't plummeted in the betting by any means - he currently trades at 30.029/1 - but I think he is set to outrun those odds, which remain very fair.

Wrangler just squeezed in at the bottom of the weights - there's a joke in there, but I will leave it to the commentator should he win - and I suspect he would be nearer 7/2, than his current odds of around 7/1, if the ground had any ease in it.

He is thought to need soft ground by connections and the formbook backs that up - both of his wins have come on soft ground and he has never raced on anything this quick - but at least anyone who backs him now will get their money back if he doesn't run.

He was a massive eye-catcher when ridden from well off the pace over course and distance last time - the jockeys reported it definitely rode on the easy side that day, despite the official good - and is 2lb lower than winning a decent Haydock handicap in 2014, so I fully get the form argument for him.

It is just the ground argument doesn't stack up - and the same applies to Litigant, surely - unless Doncaster gets a hefty amount of rain that isn't forecast. That's not a massive price, though, I grant you.

Another who I like is Prize Money in a first-time hood and Qassem is a fascinating contender upped 4f in trip on his first start for Hugo Palmer after leaving Andre Fabre, while I am not totally surprised to see John Gosden put blinkers on favourite Cape Cova for the first time.

He raced lazily when winning over an extended 1m6f here last time, and they may well sharpen him up, but I think he could struggle for pace down in trip on expected good to firm ground.

No, I will stick with Fattsota, thanks.

Boy In The Bar can raise a cheer

I think Withernsea will make a bold bid to follow up his win in this race on heavy ground last season, as he acts fine on better ground and comes here in top form.

But at a much bigger price I have really warmed to Boy In The Bar who rates a bet at 15.014/1 in the 13:50.

He ran perfectly well in a first-time visor when fourth at Goodwood last time, beaten under two lengths, but the handicapper has eased him 1lb.

That looks generous to me. And he had earlier been in sparkling form in blinkers, which are re-fitted here, when winning over 6f at Newbury and Ascot on fast ground and then chasing home Kimberella at Ripon.

The big question mark for him is the 7f trip. His run-style over 6f suggests he should enjoy it but on the three occasions he has gone beyond 6f he has been unplaced.

But take a look at his sixth over 7f at Ayr last season, when not getting anything like a clear run, and that suggests to me that he is well worth chancing over it again.

The Ian Williams stable is ticking over very nicely, and everyone knows what good value Josephine Gordon is for her 3lb claim. He rates my bet of the day at the prices.

Sugar can burn it up at huge odds

If you are a leading member of the PJA, then look away now - you know who are you are, you old silver fox - as I am going to suggest one last hurrah win and place on Burnt Sugar at massive odds in the 6f Listed race at 14:25.

He has no chance on his recent form, I know that, but that is why we are getting the price.

It you are a bleedin' obvious punter who loves a shortie, then Growl will be right up your strasse after his Group 1 second to The Tin Man at Ascot, but I am going to take him on with a horse 21lb his inferior off levels.

Stupidity? Yeah, probably, but I'll be throwing a few quid away, so feel free to join me. Or not as the case may be.

His form appears to have fallen off a cliff since his sixth off 106 in the Wokingham - Growl is rated 114 - but I have seen just enough promise in this Group 3 winner's efforts at Ascot and over course and distance last time on his last two starts to give him another whirl at massive odds.

His peak rating of 112 in 2015 was only just 2lb shy of Growl's 114. Back him at 55.054/1 win and 9.08/1 place.

The fillies' Listed race at 15:00 looks devilishly difficult to me. Pass.

Over in the National Hunt...

The unseasonably fast ground has decimated some of the fields, so I will cut straight to the chase with two fancies in the jumps races on Channel 4.

I do like the strong-travelling Some Buckle on his first start for the in-form Tom George in the 15:10 at Aintree - more of that trainer in a bit - but I have just sided with Thomas Brown.

The horse was in the 3m1f Badger Ales at Wincanton but I think Harry Fry has made the sensible move of coming here over a shorter trip, even if he is on record as saying he thinks his charge is an out-and-out stayer.

He clearly stays 3m well, and he could find this trip on the sharp side for him on good ground, but I am willing to take a chance.

He is on a very fair mark, and has won first-time out for the last two seasons, and I think he rates a bet to small stakes at 7.06/1 or bigger.

***

I will be tipping a George horse in the Badger Ales in the shape of Roc D'Apsis in the 15:20 at Wincanton. Back him at 17.016/1 or bigger.

I think Present Man is the likeliest winner of the race and a fair price at 5/1-plus but I really like Roc D'Apsis at the odds, not least because the stable is absolutely flying.

The horse did run poorly at Hereford on his reappearance but he will at least strip fitter here, is 3lb lower than when third in the Betbright Chase at Kempton in February, and connections believe faster ground suits him best, despite his recent wins coming on the soft.

There is plenty of pace in here and I think he will be played late.

Recommended Bets
Back Boy In The Bar at 15.014/1 in the 13:50 at Doncaster
Back Burnt Sugar at 55.054/1 win and 9.08/1 place in 14:25 at Doncaster
Back Thomas Brown at 7.06/1 in the 15:10 at Aintree
Back Roc D'Apsis at 17.016/1 in the 15:20 at Wincanton

Already Recommended
Back Fattsota at 34.033/1 ante-post in the November Handicap

You can read Paul Nicholls' exclusive verdict on his Saturday Runners behind the link.