Tony Calvin: Take a chance on O'Meara's gelding at a Fatt price

Fattsoto a big price on Donny's fast ground

Normally, the November Handicap is staged on borderline-unraceable ground but unless the weather forecast is way off the mark - or the course over-water - then this year it will take place on fast ground. It is currently good to firm at Doncaster, and there isn't any significant rain due this week, from what I can see anyway.

So, if trainers have plotted up a soft-ground horse for this handicap - not unreasonable given it is November and the last two runnings, won by Litigant and Open Eagle, have been on heavy - then it looks like they are going to be bang out of luck.

And William Haggas is probably top of that unlucky list.

Wrangler has already been backed from 12-1 on Monday afternoon, and is into as low as 7-1 in places - and he trades at 9.417/2 on the exchange - but I don't really understand the move at this stage, given the forecast. On soft ground, I'd be with him all day long, though he would probably be nearer a 5-1 poke, granted.

I know the horse ran a bit of an eye-catcher when third to easy winner To Be Wild from off the pace on officially good ground over course and distance latest - more than a bit, in fact - but the jockeys reported that it was riding very much on the easy side there.

And I don't think there is any doubt that Wrangler wants it soft to judge from both the formbook and connections' comments down the years.

It does look as though he has been laid out for the race and is undoubtedly handicapped to win, or at least go very close, on his 2014 form, but you would have to question whether he will even be declared if it is still good to firm on Thursday morning.

Of course, he may be left in and be balloted out, as he is still not guaranteed a run - in which case ante-post punters will get their money back - but I'd see him as an unlikely runner in the circumstances, unless connections see this as an end-of-season opportunity too good to pass up.

The recent 1m6f132yd course 1-2 of Cape Cova and Higher Power - and they pulled five lengths clear of the third - are set to lock horns once again and they are the other horses towards the top of the market.

Cape Cova has won over course and distance but that was a five-runner race and he has looked as though this trip is on the sharp side for him since, and Higher Power could reverse the placings here on 3lb better terms for a neck defeat.

There are currently 49 in the race, though, and nothing immediately screamed out "back me" at this stage, especially as each-way punters will probably get enhanced place terms on Saturday morning. Or so I thought.

My current short-list features Fattsota, Prize Money and Green Light, but the last two probably want rain. Or some over-exuberance with the watering can.

So if you are looking for an interest at this stage I would suggest Fattsota at odds of 34.033/1 or bigger, and there is some 33-1 in the marketplace, too, though the Betfair Sportsbook are rightly ducking him (in my humble opinion at least...) at 20s.

He is proven on fast ground, has dropped 8lb since the start of the season, ran okay at Leicester last time, and has run well on both his starts here. He looks like running - he has no other weekend entries - and represents the stable that won this race two years ago.

Furthermore, the David O'Meara yard is in great form - and I imagine the trainer will be in Santa Anita rather than Doncaster on Saturday - having had nine winners in the last fortnight.

In fact, the more I look at it, the more I think that Fattsota is a decent bet at 33-1. Let's hope he is the only pace in the race come Saturday afternoon, though everyone keeps me telling me that horses can't make all in big fields at Doncaster. They can jog on, though.

Nicholls to the fore in Saturday's big jumps affairs

There is some quality National Hunt action this weekend, and Wincanton hosts the Elite Hurdle, and the Badger Ales.

Running plans appear up in the air for both - no surprise given the dry spell, I suppose - but Sceau Royale is the short-priced favourite in the Elite at 2.1211/10 and if he is as half as good as he looked at Cheltenham last time then I don't expect a 10lb rise will stop him, albeit in a far stronger race.

There is no surprise to see Paul Nicholls has the favourite for the Badger Ales with Present Man - the horse is part-owned by someone with links to the sponsors - and 5lb claimer Jack Sherwood, in my good books after steering home Silsol last weekend, is already jocked up. Nicholls likes to win this race at his local track.

But I am happy to revisit those races on Friday morning, and the same is true on the JNWine.com Champion Chase at Down Royal, 127894865, where Silviniaco Conti is set to try to boost Nicholls' decent record in the race with the likes of Kauto Star, Kauto Stone and Taranis.

A hugely impressive Ascot win in first-time blinkers aside, Silviniaco Conti had a 2015-16 season to forget but he is the class horse among the entries at his best, and his trainer reports that he has had a clear run with him this autumn, which he certainly didn't last year.

But the home team also have a strong look about them, and Gigginstown in particular, with the likes of Don Poli, have plenty of firepower to take him on with.

The Breeders' Cup is not my really my bag when it comes to betting - my punting history tells me that - but I'll reserve judgement until I have had a good look at the meeting later in the week.

Expect to see that missive appear on Thursday afternoon, for what it is worth...

Recommended Bets
Back Fattsota at 34.033/1 or better in the November Handicap at Doncaster on Saturday