Daryl Carter Tips

Daryl Carter's Tips: Chester Vase winner is Hidden in plain sight

Daryl Carter Betfair ambassador
Daryl Carter likes a Charlie Appleby runner for the Chester Vase on Wednesday

Daryl Carter has four selections on Wednesday from Chester, Kempton, and Kelso, and he says his NAP must have been lined up for this assignment...

  • Chester Vase can go to Godolphin team

  • 5/16.00 NAP Lily Du Berlais set up for this Kelso final?

  • Chance Metabolt to be fit and ready first time up at Chester

Chester comes under the spotlight this week on Wednesday through to Friday with some good, strong, flat action, and I, for one, enjoy this meeting. The tight track favours a specific type of horse and can hinder other big galloping types, and recognising those that will or won't handle the track can be an edge the market lacks to cater for.

Yes, we know the inside draw over sprint trips is very much favoured, and the market will typically price up those well-drawn front-runners out of a betting possibility.

Still, knowing what the market is looking for is a good thing, and it's down to punters to exploit it, find alternative angles and use it to their advantage.

15:40 Chester - Back Hidden law @ 3.3512/5 1.5pt

Talking of an advantage, this track may prove just that for impressive Newbury scorer Hidden Law - 3.3512/5 on the Betfair Exchange - (recorded at 2/13.00 Sportsbook price - whose performance there looks to have been underestimated, and he should be well suited by the nature of this sharp-turning track.

Charlie Appleby's runner impressed on debut when almost overcoming greenness at Southwell behind today's rival Cadogan Place, who dominated a steadily run affair. That effort was worth upgrading.

The Godolphin runner made no mistakes next time and switched to turf, running out a very ready winner of a Maiden contest at odds-on, producing a fine turn of foot under hand and heels, resulting in good closing splits.

The Maiden contest married up well on the clock with the Group 3 winner Hamish, and with this track almost certain to suit his sharp turn of foot and small stature, he could take some stopping with a repeat performance.

Charlie Appleby's runner is not the biggest by all accounts, but he is up against some sizeable rivals, and he might just be able to jump on them as they organise themselves.

He needs to improve on the bare form of what he has achieved, but he looks the here-and-now type with a race fitness advantage over the favourite, and he couldn't have impressed more on his latest outing.

Agenda is not one to write off and can follow the selection home ahead of the favourite.

Back Hidden Law at 2/13.00 or bigger.

15:40 Chester - Back Hidden Law @ 3.3512/5

Bet Here

15:45 Kelso - Back Lily Du Berlais @ 5/16.00 2pt

I felt Lily Du Berlais - 5/16.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - would ruin her handicap mark by taking in a Maiden Hurdle 19 days ago, but to my surprise, the handicapper has raised her just four pounds for that effortless victory.

That's highly surprising, considering she won by more than seven lengths on the bridle. The suspicion is that J J Slevin was keen to keep his rivals at arm's length, coming down the home straight with one tap of the stick between the second-last and final flights.

Interestingly, she qualified for this final event at Catterick on seasonal return when given a suspect ride behind Sweet Fantasy. It would make sense now that this valuable race has been her target since then.

Her back form in Novice company in Ireland, when contesting two Grade 2 contests and a Grade 3, was eye-catching, so I think she is ahead of the handicapper from this rating of 120.

The drying ground is perhaps a small concern, and this is a sharp enough 2m at Kelso for her. The stiff finish should suit though, and her profile has plenty of upside.

I am very aware that there could be more to come from Brucio, who is not discounted at the top of the weights and went off at just 5/16.00 for the Grade 2 Premier Novices here on her penultimate start.

Still, her presence keeps Lily Du Berlais from saddling top-weight in this contest and outside of that, this is no more than a 0-115 contest for a prize of £25k to the winner. That could be some excellent placing by Stuart Crawford, and the percentage call is to back Lily Du Berlais, who is the fresher horse, having had just two starts this year and left the impression we haven't seen the best of her.

I am looking at 4/15.00 as the basement price, so take no less.

15:45 Kelso - Back Lily Du Berlais @ 5/16.00

Bet Here

16:45 Chester - Back Metabolt @ 12/113.00 1pt

Divine Libra heads this market at the time of writing. He was a horse very much on the radar last season, but I felt he wanted a strong run six furlongs, and today's trip of seven from a wide draw in stall 12 could see him falter at the finish through stamina. The same comments apply to Legal Reform, who has never been strong at the death over this trip at Chester.

The one who appeals the most is Metabolt - 12/113.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who looks overpriced on the promise he offered early last season and has a fair record first time out.

He scored at Haydock, having to have the placings reversed, but suffered significant interference during his run and was worth a considerable upgrade.

He continued his fine start to last term with a decisive victory at Windsor before going close at Haydock. He was a no-show on his travels to Galway but should have scored at Windsor in August in the Racing League when he was continuously denied a clear run.

He left the firm impression that a mark in the low 80s was not beyond him, and he has a strong effort at this venue under his belt from 2022. He looks to have plenty in his favour to run a big race if fit and well under Rossa Ryan from stall nine, which may allow him to come fast and late down the outside and avoid traffic issues.

He remains a horse to keep on the right side of over this trip, and trainer David Loughnane has finished first, second and third in this race with his last three runners.

Given the traffic issues at this track, I'd be happy to play at 9/110.00 or bigger but win only.

16:45 Chester - Back Metabolt @ 12/113.00

Bet Here

19:30 Kempton - Back Ultramarine @ 16/117.00 1pt e/w

I was all set to back Richard Hannon's Rich until the prices came to light as I made her at least a 8/19.00 chance, having gone backwards last year after a very encouraging seasonal return at Kempton over 1m when bumping into Running Lion (105) and Dancing Goddess (94) when beaten just two lengths.

The Kempton form is a little dubious given what the pair has achieved since comparable to Rich, and she lacked pace on that occasion. Still, it does bode well that the winner, Running Lion, ran an excellent race on this year's seasonal return, suggesting it may prove more reliable than at first glance, but the market hasn't missed it.

Still, despite the drop in class, she is a risky proposition, but being fresh and returning to the AW from a good draw could see her go well.

Ultramarine - 16/117.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - looks like a fair price now returned to the scene of his 100% 2-2 record, and on both occasions, he has won with more in hand than the winning margin suggests.

The five-year-old is well-drawn in stall one and has won very well here twice this year. The latest run was off today's mark when comfortably holding the solid yardstick Revolutionise. That run looks like strong form, and he is still unexposed over 7f.

I am happy to forgive his latest effort under an inexperienced rider at Southwell (0-10).

Still, with Richard Kingscote on board, drawn well at the venue that has twice seen him record his highest RPR ratings since joining this yard in September and the best since his two-year-old days, he must be backed each-way at 10/111.00 or bigger.

Now Read: Ryan Moore Day One Chester May Meeting: Three smart chances on Wednesday

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2024 P/L = Next update (monthly) May 1st

2024 P/L = +74.43 ROI 18.10%

BSP P/L = +79.1 ROI 19.34%

2024 P/L Ante-post = +4


2021 P/L = +187pts 12% ROI

2022 P/L = + 137.1pts ROI 8.72% +22.7pts BSP 1.44% ROI

2023 P/L = +112.63pts ROI 8.86% +99.4pts BSP 7.84% ROI

2023 P/L (Incl ante) Total = +146.63 ROI 11.5%


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Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.