ITV Races - Tony Calvin

Saturday ITV Racing Tips: Tony Calvin's four bets up to 25/1

Betfair tipster Tony Calvin
Tony has four tips to consider at Newbury and Newmarket

We have some quality racing at Newbury and Newmarket to look forward to on ITV Racing on Saturday, and returning with his best bets for the afternoon is our resident tipster Tony Calvin...

  • Tony's hoping for a bit of Room Service at 12/113.00

  • Our man won't be on his own in backing 14/115.00 Individualism

  • 25/126.00 and 10/111.00 bets in Newmarket's 7f handicap


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Betfair Ambassador Ryan Moore rides favourite Chantilly in the 15:00 at Newbury today, and the Betfair Sportsbook have super-boosted his price to finish in the top five from 2/51.40 to 1/12.00.

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Newbury - 13:50: No Bet

Newmarket is arguably the better punting card but let's start with Newbury's Group 1 meeting.

It opens up with a tricky Group 2 over 1m4f at 13:50, in which just 6lb splits seven of the nine runners on official ratings and the other pair, Bolster and Maxi King, come into the contest as big improvers.

Bolster is one of three potential front-runners in here alongside Cemhaan and perhaps So Moonstruck, and the latter is undeniably interesting on his first start for Owen Burrows.

The 5yo hasn't been seen since being beaten in a three-way photo for the German Derby in July 2022 but I have a lot of time for his new handler Owen Burrows, and quotes of 12/113.00 for him are probably a touch dismissive.

However, this is not a race I could have a strong opinion on, given I could make a fair case for all nine, including the Sportsbook's 40/141.00 outsider Maxi King.

I appreciate his Newmarket handicap success only came off a mark of 90, but he was impressive there and the opening 40s could just underestimate this progressive and ground-versatile 4yo a touch.

But, then again, he has 17lb to find with 6/42.50 favourite Desert Hero.

I should touch on the going, as I mentioned ground-versatile above.

It is currently good, good to soft in places, after 2mm at the course on Thursday night. There is no more appreciable rain due, but of course the forecasts are a moveable feast.

Newbury - 14:25: Back Room Service

The 6f Listed race at 14:25 has a similar look to the opener, in that it is a tight-knit contest on the figures.

I thought the pick of the Sportsbook prices was Room Service at 12/113.00, attractive odds if you forgive him an underwhelming return over 7f in Greenham. That is the best quote going.

You can make excuses for him there if you were of a generous disposition, as he didn't get the best of passages, and maybe a strongly-run 6f (which he should get looking at the pace map below) with a bit of dig in the ground could be more his bag.

He really impressed me when winning a Doncaster sales race on soft ground last season, from the form horses Dragon Leader and Johannes Brahms, and I was tempted, but will being drawn 14 of 14 be a help or a hindrance?

He should be okay, the forward-goers are in 7, 9, 11 and 12.

I wrote the first draft of this column on Thursday afternoon, and I said to myself that I'd tip him if the 12s was still there on Friday morning, when I look at all the races and prices afresh, and tweak and change my copy accordingly.

And, lo and behold, it is still. So back him at 12s, win-only to small stakes.

Newbury - 15:00: Back Individualism E/W

Never feel duty bound to back in races just because of their high-profile nature. For example, the 1m2f handicap at 15:00 has a great history in throwing up future Group winners, so you almost feel pressurised to have a strong opinion.

Everyone likes to spot a horse with two stone in hand, and puff that chest out, though hopefully stopping well short of a cretinous boom....

All of the 14 in here are potentially dangerous from their current marks, but surely none more than Individualism at the foot of the weights off just 78.

I think the handicapper may have been lenient in leaving him unchanged after a second over 1m on his return at Musselburgh.

Sure, the winner - who is clearly a Group 2 horse, and who went up 12lb to a mark of 109 - dotted up by 5 ½ lengths and the third and fourth have been well beaten since.

But he did beat the rest by a fair margin in finishing second, and that Musselburgh form is not all doom and gloom. The fifth, Silent Move, won at Haydock last week.

What I liked about that run was that he travelled strongly with the winner on the front end - well up until the point when that one's after-burners kicked in - and a mile really should be the minimum for him as a 3yo, given his pedigree.

His sire wouldn't scream stamina at you but his dam stayed 1m2f well and she has been responsible for Gold Cup winner Subjectivist and other stayers like Sir Ron Priestley (also a Group 2 winner over 1m4f), both trained by the stable.

The yard won this race with Communique in 2018. He was rated 84 at the time and he ended the season rated 25lb higher; hopefully, Individualism similarly has a bit in the tank from his current lowly mark, too. Ill settle for 15lb, and not 25lb.

I'm not greedy.

That's two tips in as many days for a Charlie Johnston horse; don't let me down, Chaz.

To confirm then. Back Individualism at 14s each way, four places. I am not worried about any ground for him and he'd be my bet of the day at the current odds.

Even without the promise of that Musselburgh return, a mark of 78 is surely highly exploitable on his fifth at Newmarket last season, a race that has worked out ridiculously well.

The winner was second in the Greenham, the runner-up won on his reappearance, the third is now rated 94 after winning his next two, and the fourth was a certain Economics. The selection was meeting the placed horses off levels.

Newbury - 15:35: No Bet

I have no strong opinion in the Lockinge at 15:35, a race which the Sportsbook opened up with 2/13.00 joint favourites with Big Rock and Inspiral.

If they managed to lay the pair at those odds - nice work if you can get it - they'd have had the rest running for them at 6/42.50.

I'd probably rather have the field running for me at odds-against too, if truth be told - the trainer switch with Big Rock would have to worry you, as would any further rain for the mare - and other options would include Poker Face and Royal Scotsman at 13/27.50 and 16/117.00 each way respectively.

However, I feel no need to force a bet here just because it is a Group 1.

By the way, there is a lot of potential pace in this race and I am proud of myself for not mentioning Big Rock's jockey.

Yes, the 1,000 Guineas still stings a touch.

Newmarket - 14:05: No Bet

Over to Newmarket then where an unforecast 10mm of rain on Thursday turned the ground good from good to firm. I hope they weren't doing some sneaky watering earlier in the week, as I fancy two horses that prefer a decent surface.

The current forecast looks largely dry, though.

Only seven runners go in the 7f handicap at Newmarket at 14:05 but four like to go on. Love Billy Boy isn't one of those, and he probably makes most appeal at 6s, the best price around.

He appreciated the step up to this trip when just touched off here last time and, though raised 4lb for that - adding insult to injury for connections - he could still remain fairly treated.

I can give this race a pass, but he is the one to concentrate on if you want an interest.

Newmarket - 14:40: Back Rainbow Fire E/W

I like Rainbow Fire and Final Watch against the field in the 7f handicap at 14:40, and I am happy to back the pair each way, four places, at 10/111.00 and 25/126.00 respectively with the Sportsbook. They are drawn next to each other in ten and nine.

Importantly, the above bets are are the best combination of price and each way terms in the marketplace.

Let's just hope we get no more significant rain, and it dries up again.

I wanted to be with Rainbow Fire at Haydock last time - a race which he won the year before - but I couldn't back him on the ground (or at least the predicted going 24 hours beforehand), so I was surprised to ran a screamer in third on official soft ground (Timeform actually called it heavy, so that run was unexpectedly good).

Off the same mark here, and with the ground surely more suitable for him, then he has a big run in him on a track on which he won his maiden back in 2020, his sole outing on the Rowley course.

Timeform have him racing on good to firm once, and winning.

Newmarket - 14:40: Back Final Watch E/W

There is no way I am letting Final Watch go ignored at 25s.

His trainer flagged pre-race he would need his return here earlier in the month (as his record suggests he tends to), and so it proved. He only got dropped 1lb for it, but every little helps in these tight handicaps.

He is now 1lb lower than his last winning mark, on the July course last summer, and he has won on the Rowley course, too.

He hasn't officially raced on fast ground before but Timeform have him being on good to firm twice, winning one and finishing a ½-length second on the other occasion.

I may be going overboard about the ground for him as actually some of his best efforts have been on official good to soft, but I'd prefer it to stay dry for him.

He looks a very good each way bet to me at 25s. Looking at the pace angles, hopefully the draw wont be a deciding factor here.

I am certain Saint Lawrence is getting down to a winnable mark - he again shaped well last time, and was dropped another 2lb for it - but they may not pull that particular trigger until the Wokingham again.

He is on 105 now and he won the Royal Ascot handicap off 100 last season. That 20s was tempting, especially with his stable now going much better than it was earlier in the campaign. And this is a 100k pot, so perhaps I am being overly-cynical

Newmarket - 15:15: No Bet

I could only narrow down the 11-runner 1m handicap at 15:15 to three, so I'll leave it there.

Best of luck.


GOING & WEATHER

Newbury: Good, good to soft in place (no appreciable rain currently forecast; maybe odd showers)

Newmarket: Good (no appreciable rain forecast other than minor showers)


FIRST TIME HEADGEAR

Tom Dascombe cheekpieces 14-157 since 2016


PACE MAPS

1.50pm Newbury: Bolster, Cemhaan, So Moonstruck

2.05pm Newmarket: Venture Capital, Gressington, Miss Information, So Logical

2.25pm Newbury: Action Point, Dawn Charger, Inishfallen, James Delight

2.40pm Newmarket: Make Me King?, Quinault, Carrytheone?, Gorak, Chola Empire

3.00pm Newbury: Black Run, Chantilly, Hot Fuss, Persica?, Poniros, Brioni, Fighter Command, Into Battle, Prepschool, Spirit Of Acklam, Individualism

3.15pm Newmarket: Dashing Roger, Cabinet Of Clowns, He's A Gentleman

3.35pm Newbury: Audience, Big Rock, Dear My Friend, Flight Plan, Hi Royal, Poker Face


BALLOTED OUT (money back for ante-post punters); N/A


TRAINER FORM - for all with entries in Saturday's ITV races (does not include Friday's results):

Good: Easterbys, Ollie Sangster, Tom Dascombe, David O'Meara, Ralph Beckett, Aidan O'Brien, Owen Burrows (very few runners, Geoff Oldroyd (no recent runners but good 2024; 4/11 so far), Andrew Balding, Ed Walker, Crisfords, Charlie Hills, Newland/Insole

Fair: Michael Bell, Karl Burke, Hugo Palmer, Clive Cox, Dominic Ffrench Davis, Roger Varian, Gosdens, Marco Botti (improving), William Haggas (probably still moderate by his standards), Jamie Osborne, Archie Watson, Brian Meehan, Rod Millman, Coles, David Menuisier (winner on Thursday), Muir/Grassick, Saeed Bin Suroor (not many runners), Richard Hannon, George Boughey, William Stone, James Ferguson, Richard Fahey, Charlie Appleby, James Horton (very few runners), Ed Bethell (winner on Thursday)

Moderate: Eve Johnson Houghton (though an 8-1 winner on Thursday, and horses running better of late), Kevin Ryan (borderline fair), George Baker (very few runners), Harry Charlton, Mauricio Guarnieri, Stuart Williams, Charlie Fellowes (despite last weekend), David Simcock, Pat Phelan, Alan King, Charlie Johnston (maybe more fair)

New trainer in town: H Al Jehani


Now read Ryan Moore on his Saturday rides at Newbury here.


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PROFIT AND LOSS

2024 Flat season (day-of-race; Apr 26 onwards):

STAKED:  33
RETURN: 64.15
P AND L: +31.15

2023-24 NH season:

STAKED: 127
RETURN: 143.4
P/L:    +16.4

April 16-Oct 31; 2023 Flat season:

STAKED:  202
RETURNS: 168.9
P AND L:  -33.1

March 26 2022 -April 15 2023:

Staked: 436
Returns: 643.6
P/L: +207.6

April 14 2021 to March 25 2022:

P/L: + 183.1

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