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Today's Racing News: Varian to maintain 100% record with Angel Power in Ayr feature

Daryl Carter
18 May 2022
4:00 min read

Ayr's Listed Fillies' contest is today's feature race.

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Wednesday's racing action comes from Ayr, Yarmouth, Warwick, Cork and Southwell. On hand with all your daily news, stats, and betting information is Daryl Carter...

"Still, class-act Angel Power edges the vote for a trainer bidding to win this for the third time with as many runners."

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At Ayr in the 13:35, trainer Karl Burke saddles two newcomers, Bon Marine 4.57/2 and Georgiava 4.03/1, and he has struck with five of his last 25 first time out two-year-olds at this venue (20%).

The Whyte & Mackay Handicap at Ayr is split into two divisions, and thrice winning trainer Jim Goldie has runners in both. Still, his best chance for a fourth win in the race comes in the second division at 14:45 with Classy Al 4.03/1.

Trainer Charlie Appleby has only run six two-year-olds this season, scoring with a very smart one, so it's only right his runner Changing Colours 1.910/11 is worth close inspection in the 14:00 at Yarmouth.

Trainer David Simcock has had a 24% strike rate with three-year-olds at Yarmouth in the last five years and today sends one runner, Masterclass 7.06/1 in the 15:45.

At Warwick in the 14:55, Quid Pro Quo 2.47/5 makes his hurdling debut for Dan Skelton and owner JP McManus. When the owner and trainer combined, they have a 45% strike rate.

Trainer Nicky Henderson had a 35% strike rate at Warwick during the 2021/2022 season and today sends Gipsy De Choisel 6.511/2 in the 16:40.

In the 17:10 at Warwick, Sir Tivo 5.59/2 is six from 14 when running on left-handed tracks, including here. Trainer Gary Haanmer has booked Kevin Brogan, and the pair have a 22% strike rate.

Undoubtedly the stat horse of the day is First View 3.55/2 at 18:00 at Kempton. Saeed bin Suroor has a 37% strike rate with first time gelded runners - also, check the stat of the day!

Jockey Jim Crowley has a 38% strike rate for Joseph Tuite, and the trainer will be looking to break his (0-24) duck with first time out two-year-olds on the all-weather with Hill Cove 8.07/1 in the 19:00.

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Horses for courses

This section highlights the best bets from horses that have won twice or more at today's tracks.

16:52 Yarmouth - Spanish Mane - Has won here twice (17%)
16:58 Ayr - Royal Regent - Has won here five times (17%)
18:00 Kempton - First View - Has won here twice (100%)

Weighted to go well

"Weighted to go well" highlights horses running that are more than 10lbs below their last winning handicap mark.

13:00 Ayr - Just Hiss - Has won off 82 runs off 64
16:52 Yarmouth - Catch My Breath - Has won off 68 runs off 55
20:20 Southwell - Dan Gun - Has won off 92 runs off 73

Furthest traveller

Today's furthest traveller is trainer David Menuisier who has made the 421-mile trip to Ayr with his sole runner in the 15:20 Twisted Reality 29.028/1. This is the trainer's second runner at this venue.

Race of the day

We head to Ayr today for the highly competitive 15:20 Listed Fillies Rothesay Stakes. There are angles for a few here, and interestingly all eight runners have travelled more than 320-miles to compete in this race.

My Astra tuned up for this with a close second at Kempton 30 days ago, and she should strip fitter for that outing and has both the step up in distance and the ground in her favour in a bid to claim further black type.

There are few negatives to her chances today, for all this is the deepest contest she is yet to contest, but the half brother to the useful My Oberon should continue on her upward curve.

Achelois ran a blinder on seasonal return at Epsom when narrowly touched off by the course specialist winner, but she will need to improve on the balance of her form to land this more competitive event.

She is entitled to take a step forward for her latest run, which came off the back of 164 day-break, and although reliable, that may not be enough to score at this level.

Angel Power had issues last term highlighted by her only making the track three times. Still, it was an encouraging reappearance run at Nottingham when narrowly touched off, and although the winner has let the form down next time, I wouldn't judge her too harshly on that one's performance.

She sets a good form standard in this contest and was rated as high as 108 just four starts ago. And she is the only dual Group winner in the field and is highly likely to improve from her latest outing.

Big race verdict

A good race this when something to recommend most, including furthest traveller, Twisted Reality, for who her best is yet to come. Still, class-act Angel Power edges the vote for a trainer bidding to win this for the third time with as many runners. She is likely to get a soft lead, and a step forward from her latest run will almost certainly see her in the mix at the business end.

Reader's Questions

hi pal, wondering how much emphasis is put on "who the jockey is" when making selections. so often i fancy one but dont like the jock and so often the said jock is shocking but still rides the same horse time and time again. how much do the riders influence your picks if any?
-- gjc (@dolforganview) May 15, 2022

Thanks for your question @dolforganview.

In all honesty, it's pretty low on my down on my list. The majority of jockeys are more than capable of getting a horse to win a race if that horse is good enough and has the right conditions.

That doesn't mean I don't look at jockey bookings. It can give you a telltale of what chance the horse has to an extent. For example, you know if Frankie Dettori is out on a Tuesday afternoon at Yarmouth, the yard probably fancies their chances.

Still, it's something I look at after analysing a race. Why has this jockey gone there rather than riding this horse today here, that will then factor into confidence levels and price etc., but jockey booking alone or lack of wouldn't determine if it was a bet or not.

Like you, there are some I like to avoid simply because their ride style, in my opinion, is not effective at specific courses or on certain horses, and it is frustrating when a trainer continues to use them when they don't fit the horse. I agree.

Conditions of the race and the horse's ability and reasons for him to improve should all come before a jockey booking, though.

Final Word - short enough sir

There's only one person I discuss in-depth betting punts or potential strategies with. It's not uncommon for us to have three or four hour-long conversations on the phone once a fortnight when we think there is an excellent bet to be had - we should probably turn it into a podcast, although some of the language may not fly.

Still, Monday, we had one of our long discussions about the potential upside of backing Downtown Getaway at Huntingdon in the lucky last on Tuesday.

The more we spoke, the more we thought he was a bombproof bet, and we made his odds around 1/3. Still, my partner, being the brains of the operation and far superior to myself when it comes to numbers, suggested we stick in a bet at 2.01/1 on the opening markets of the exchange and hope that a bot lays the bet - that would be excellent value.

He stuck in the £200 win bet - there was a hell of a lot more due to be going on between us once the market saw more liquidity with me stupidly hoping something close to this 1.99 (almost evens) would hold - but the high price of 1.99 meant it didn't get matched, and low and beheld, the free-fall quickly began 1.51/2.

The market barely moved throughout the day. Although his BSP of 1.55 should have been taken, given we made it a 1.33 chance, it wasn't, well, not on my end. There's something about backing at short odds that doesn't sit right with me unless I am getting outstanding value - some will suggest the 1.55 was, and they're right! Still, despite the confidence in the selection, hesitation set in. Stange, this never happens at odds against!

The math will tell you there was still around 8% to work with against our odds. It's the same as watching a 9/1 chance move to 9/2 or 4/1 (8% increase) or thereabouts.

I am pretty sure there are many out there - myself included - that would have jumped on this fancy if falling from 9/1 into 9/2.

He traded at no higher than 1.5 in the running, which was a pain as I sat there and watched him scoot home in comfortable style without a penny on.

It's strange how odds can affect your betting. Some have more on at shorter odds than they would at the higher prices and vice versa.

Every day is a school day, and this is another lesson learnt from the betting mistress, but this felt like a costly one, even if no money left the pocket.

Until tomorrow, be lucky.

Follow Daryl Carter on Twitter @DarylCarter7