The Derby: Katie Midwinter's runner-by-runner guide and 1-2-3 prediction for the Epsom Classic

---

Benvenuto Cellini

5/23.50 favourite to win the Derby

Benvenuto Cellini made a significant impression when a dominant winner of the Chester Vase last month, beating stablemate Proposition by four-and-a-quarter-lengths when justifying short odds of 2/91.22 under Ryan Moore.

The Chester Group Three provided the winner of the Derby last year for team Ballydoyle in the form of Lambourn, and this son of Frankel could follow in his stablemate's footsteps by keeping the prestigious trophy in County Tipperary for the fourth year running.

The unique chestnut enjoyed success during his juvenile campaign last term, but was beaten in his sole Group One appearance when third in the Futurity Stakes at Doncaster. It was a run worth forgiving and he has shown improvement over a further distance this term, capable of taking another step forward from his reappearance now with experience over this middle-distance in his favour.

Out of dual Grade One winner Newspaperofrecord, there's plenty of class in Benvenuto Cellini's pedigree, and he could emerge as another special colt for Aidan O'Brien, with plenty to like about his profile and record so far.

---

Item

10/34.33 to win the Derby

Dante Stakes winner Item provided a small surprise when landing the York Group Two at odds of 11/26.50, beating the field convincingly by two-and-three-quarter-lengths in good fashion. He was able to maintain his unbeaten record on the Knavesmire, landing a third win from as many starts.

The son of Frankel remains unexposed and is on an upward trajectory with the ceiling of his ability unknown. He has been progressing well, improving with each run, and could be capable of showing plenty of further progression for Andrew Balding.

The unbeaten colt demands the utmost respect on the back of an impressive success at Stakes level, but he'll need to prove himself over this extra distance in likely softer conditions. An intriguing contender, he could take another step forward and prove himself at the highest level for the Juddmonte team.

---

Pierre Bonnard

4/15.00 to win the Derby

Camelot colt Pierre Bonnard shaped with plenty of promise as a juvenile following a debut defeat at Leopardstown, in a maiden which previously featured Delaxcroix and Scandinavia, claiming Group Three honours followed by a Group One success during the second-half of the campaign.

He appeared to improve for the step up to a mile-and-a-quarter in softer conditions at Saint-Cloud, having coped with a quicker surface at Newmarket previously, and looked the perfect specimen for a Derby.

An imposing, good-looking colt, Pierre Bonnard should hold stamina in abundance being by a strong staying stallion out of Nassau Stakes winner Sultanina, who has also produced Crepe Suzette, Group Two-placed over an extended mile-and-three-quarters. He's also related to a number of other stayers including Dal Harraild and French Master, plus multiple Grade One winner Anisette, whose accolades include the Del Mar Oaks, and Mohaafeth.

This challenge could perfectly suit the well-bred likeable colt, and the best may be yet to come from him as he steps further up in distance in these conditions.

---

James J Braddock

15/28.50 to win the Derby

Joseph O'Brien-trained James J Braddock provided the knockout blow when beating hot favourite Pierre Bonnard in a Leopardstown Derby Trial last month, finishing strongly to pounce late on, narrowly denying the reopposing Ballydoyle colt. He had previously been beaten by Christmas Day at the same venue, but was able to take a significant step forward from that reappearance effort and resume his progression.

Last term, the son of Zarak shed his maiden tag by a convincing six-lengths at the Curragh, beating subsequent winner Cannes, now rated 95. He has shaped as though there's plenty more to come and has been improving as he gains experience, still unexposed and on an upward trajectory.

His latest run was noteworthy and significantly enhanced his Derby claims as he beat a fancied Group One winner, flashing speed and determination in the closing stages. This extra distance could suit and if he can produce a similar effort at Epsom, he holds a strong chance of Classic glory.

---

Maltese Cross

8/19.00 to win the Derby

Sea The Stars colt Maltese Cross is bidding for a fourth successive win having landed Listed success over Bay Of Brilliance in the Lingfield trial last month.

He's out of Camelot mare Nabatea, who is a half-sister to multiple black-type achievers, including German Derby winner Nutan, therefore has plenty of stamina as well as class in the pedigree which bodes well for his chances over this trip.

Further improvement is required, but the William Haggas-trained contender has done very little wrong to date, performing consistently well whilst only doing enough to finish in front, narrowly beating his rivals in each victory. He remains unexposed and, as a trial winner, could be capable of a bold showing.

---

Bay Of Brilliance

9/110.00 to win the Derby

Second to Maltese Cross in the Lingfield trial, Ralph Beckett-trained Bay Of Brilliance wasn't far behind the reopposing winner when last seen and could improve for that opening run of the season.

He was beaten on debut in a hotly contested Newbury novice event last term, before beating Study Of Words and Poker respectively in subsequent runs, impressing visually by eight-and-a-half-lengths to win at Redcar in his concluding run during his debut campaign. 

The New Bay colt, who is out of a mile-and-a-quarter winner in Incroyable, is a half-brother to Ebor winner Absurde as well as black-type achiever Impertinente. There may be more to come from him over this intermediate distance, and, on the back of a promising reappearance at Listed level, could put in a bold showing.

---

Ancient Egypt

11/112.00 to win the Derby

Frankel colt Ancient Egypt was purchased for 1,100,000gns as a Book 1 yearling before winning both of his first two starts at Beverley and Goodwood respectively. He couldn't make any impression in the Royal Lodge Stakes when upped into Stakes company, but returned to form on reappearance this term with Listed success at Newmarket, and remains unexposed with a classy profile. 

The Charlie Johnston-trained colt is related to many classy performers including the likes of multiple Group One winner Midday, who was just touched off Sariska in the 2009 Oaks, as well as Eclipse winner Elmaamul, who placed in the 1990 Derby behind Quest For Fame.

There's Classic credentials in the family and Ancient Egypt could outrun his odds. He has the scope for further improvement and cannot be discounted for the Amo Racing team, who have enjoyed a big run from an outsider in this race previously with the classy King Of Steel.

---

Action

14/115.00 to win the Derby

Equipped with first-time cheekpieces, Frankel colt Action could improve for the addition of headgear following a decent second-placed effort to Item in the Dante Stakes.

The good-looking chestnut pulled a length-and-three-quarters clear of third-placed Christmas Day on that occasion, emerging with credit in defeat and shaping markedly better than on reappearance at Sandown.

Whilst he doesn't appear to be the most straightforward colt, the Aidan O'Brien-trained runner has shown to possess ability. He finished a length-and-a-half third to Bow Echo in a Newmarket Group Two as a juvenile, before chasing home Hawk Mountain in the Futurity Trophy Stakes when ahead of Benvenuto Cellini at Doncaster.

The Coolmore-homebred is a half-brother to last year's Derby hero Lambourn, therefore has strong credentials as he seeks Classic glory, but will need to handle the occasion and undulations of the track if he is to emulate his sibling and stablemate.

---

Christmas Day

20/121.00 to win the Derby

Third in the Dante Stakes when last seen, Christmas Day lacked the speed to pose a threat on the major honours at York, but this step up in distance on a softer surface could allow him to fare much better.

By Camelot out of Sea The Stars mare Beauly, and a half-brother to useful Stakes level performer Missed The Cut, there should be plenty of stamina in the reserves of this 450,000gns purchase.

His form with the likes of Pierre Bonnard, James J Braddock, A Boy Names Susie and Causeway is noteworthy and, although he has been exposed on occasion, he remains unexposed over this extra distance which is likely to suit on pedigree.

---

Poker

100/1101.00 to win the Derby

Karl Burke-trained Poker fetched 4,300,000gns as a Book 1 yearling but is yet to get off the mark in three starts and hasn't appeared to be the most straightforward colt. He failed to justify 11/82.38 favouritism on debut at Haydock in the autumn, and was well beaten by Bay Of Brilliance when second in his subsequent run, but did fare better when beaten only two-lengths on reappearance over a mile-and-a-half when last seen, and the penny may have dropped for the inexperienced son of Wootton Bassett. 

From the family of Derby winner New Approach and Oaks winner Was, there's Classic credentials and plenty of class in the pedigree, and Poker may be capable of taking huge forward strides this term with some racing experience in his favour.

On the form he has shown so far, however, a significant amount of improvement is needed and, whilst shedding his maiden tag in the Derby would be a huge feat, he's in extremely deep waters against proven rivals and may be found wanting.

---

Rebel Rocker

100/1101.00 to win the Derby

Second to Saxon Street in the Blue Riband Trial here earlier this term, Rebel Rocker stuck to the task well to outrun his odds of 33/134.00 on that occasion, earning himself a place in this line up with course experience in his favour.

He had previously made a successful start in a Kempton maiden that has produced a number of subsequent winners, but this is a much tougher assignment and, whilst he remains unexposed, he'll need to markedly improve on his previous performances.

The son of Cityscape is related to a number of staying performers as well as black-type achievers, therefore the step up in distance could well bring out further improvement from him and he may turn out to be a classy type, however, this may be too tough a task in only his third outing.

---

A Taste Of Glory

150/1151.00 to win the Derby

Soldier Hollow colt A Taste Of Glory has gained some valuable experience so far during his career, appearing six times including in the Saint-Cloud Group One won by Pierre Bonnard last term.

His form in Stakes company has left a lot to be desired so far, but it's too early to completely rule him out in a race of this nature, although a huge amount of improvement will be required for him to make his presence felt.

Trained by Andrew Balding, the dual winner, who has picked up a Brighton maiden and a Lingfield handicap, has shown to possess ability but he's yet to emerge as a lively performer at Group level and would likely need plenty of others to disappoint if he is able to make the frame.

---

Balzac

150/1151.00 to win the Derby

Japan colt Balzac finished third to Maltese Cross in his sole start as a juvenile, before getting off the mark on reappearance at Kempton, winning nicely over a mile.

He gained valuable Epsom experience when third to Saxon Street here in Listed company earlier in the campaign, but, although staying on late, didn't strike as a Derby winner in waiting and failed to improve on the effort at Lingfield when last seen.

Significant improvement is required but there could be more to come from the half-brother to Claymore, who has shown to possess some ability.

---

Alderman

200/1201.00 to win the Derby

Richard Hannon-trained outsider Alderman remains a maiden following three attempts, but wasn't completely disgraced behind a potential Group performer in Water To Wine at Newbury on reappearance and could take a step forward for the outing.

He could be capable of showing further improvement during his second season and further in future, but this appears a stiff task at this stage in his career and he's lacking obvious Classic-winning credentials having been seen solely in maiden company to date.

There is a significant number of classy types in his family, however, therefore the son of Study Of Man may be better than shown so far. There are black-type achievers in his pedigree, and, although a huge outsider, may be able to give a decent account of himself.

---

Katie Midwinter's Derby Prediction

1. Pierre Bonnard

2. James J Braddock

3. Action

---

Find more horse racing columns here!

---