The Derby: Sam Turner pinpoints his Epsom 1-2-3 and expects more O'Brien artistry

O'Brien well-placed for fourth successive Derby win

The O'Brien dynasty dominated Sunday's French Derby and six days on there could be a recurring theme at Epsom this weekend.

Of the 17 possible runners that still remain in Saturday's Betfred Derby, Aidan O'Brien trains seven of the entries as he searches for an unprecedented fourth successive victory in the blue riband event, while son Joseph also boasts a leading contender in James J Braddock, game winner of Leopardstown's Cashel Palace Derby Trial last month.

Much has been written about  stride profiles ahead of recent Derbys and further analysis of this year's anticipated field throws up some revealing data.

While many in the past month struggled to separate the respective Epsom merits of ante-post favourite Benvenuto Cellini and high-class stablemate Constitution River, their handler was unerringly accurate in his view that the latter would be better suited to the demands of Chantilly given his stride is a rapid, high-revving cadence, more suited to distances around ten furlongs than a gruelling mile-and-a-half like Saturday's venue.

In contrast, Chester Vase winner Benvenuto Cellini displayed an incredibly slow and energy-efficient maximum stride which featured a peak low on the Roodee (the lowest figure in Saturday's field) of just 2.0 strides per second, ideal for a test like Epsom.

Slow striders which boast massive peak strides and also possess natural speed like Benvenuto Cellini - he broke the track record when winning at Chester - have enjoyed great success in recent renewals of the Derby and Saturday's likely market leader looks to have the ideal biomechanical blueprint for Epsom providing the draw Gods are kind on Wednesday and ground conditions at the Surrey venue do not deteriorate markedly with thunderstorms forecast.

So what of his rivals?

Item left behind low key juvenile wins at Kempton and Bath to announce himself on the Derby stage with an impressive reappearance win in the Group 2 Dante Stakes at York just three weeks ago, in the process beating two Ballydoyle rivals in Action and Christmas Day by a growing margin at the line.

Both Golden Horn (2015) and Desert Crown (2022) used York as a springboard from which to launch a successful Epsom challenge, but my one nagging doubt about Item's Classic claims is his early keenness on the Knavesmire and the way in which he overraced in the formative stages of that trial.

In contrast to Benvenuto Cellini who boasts a peak stride extension in excess of 26 feet - a figure synonymous with Lambourn last year - Item's peak stride length in the Dante was 24.75ft with his progressive stride pattern arguably more suited to flat tracks like York.

Given he was modestly campaigned as a two-year-old and was reported to have taken time to recover from his Dante exertions, he is reluctantly overlooked even if his York speed figure marks him as a leading contender.

Which of the bigger-priced contenders catch the eye?

Like his 1930s boxing namesake, James J Braddock delivered a last-gasp knockout blow to his Leopardstown rivals last month and it would be some result for his connections, which include esteemed journalist, broadcaster and former Betfair writer Kevin Blake, should the 40,000gns purchase capture this prestigious prize.

The son of Zarak displays a grinder's stride profile which allows him to sustain his output throughout his races so his chance would be favoured by a solid tempo and a true gallop from the outset.

While his stride length doesn't match that of Benvenuto Cellini, James J Braddock's average cadence of 2.11 strides per second is in keeping with many past winners and will allow his rider to enjoy an energy-saving spin aboard a slow strider who did well to win at Leopardstown given his track position.

Any heavy rain and an easing of conditions shouldn't inconvenience his chance and, if there are any chinks in the armour of the more fancied contenders, James J Braddock could be the last man standing when the bell sounds for the final time.

Trainer Charlie Johnston enjoyed Classic success in Germany at the weekend when capturing the German 1,000 Guineas with Timeforshowcasing and the English Guineas-placed Venetian Lace could prove a major player for the stable in Friday's Betfred Oaks.

The Middleham handler also has a live contender in Ancient Egypt who familiarised himself with Epsom's contours with an encouraging spin at a recent gallops morning.

An impressive winner of the Newmarket Stakes on his comeback last month, the beautifully bred son of Frankel possesses a vast stride extension which has been measured at a whopping 26.4 feet (matches last year's winner Lambourn) so it was encouraging for a horse with such a giant stride that he handled both the Dip at headquarters so well before coping with the demands of Tattenham Corner adroitly in his recent gallop there.

An average stride cadence of 2.10 strides per second fits perfectly within the ideal metric for a Derby winner and showcases his ability to slip into a rhythmic grinding stride from an early stage, while his temperament lends itself to sitting close to the speed, allowing rider David Egan to pursue an uncomplicated path, should his draw allow.

Amo Racing have twice finished runner-up in the Derby at sizeable prices, but Ancient Egypt looks to have stronger claims than either King Of Steel or Moko Star if the data is to be taken on trust and his trainer was responsible for last year's runner-up Lazy Griff so will fancy his chances of going one better with a tailormade contender.  

Epsom Derby 2026 - the conclusion

Benvenuto Cellini boasts the lowest stride cadence in the field and a vast open stride which contributed to a record-breaking performance at Chester, so appears to possess the perfect blend of speed and stamina required for Saturday's test.

He is difficult to dismiss granted a kind draw - albeit that didn't seem to matter last Sunday - for all that he is prohibitively priced at 13/82.63.

James J Braddock and Ancient Egypt are also expected to take high rank with their stride data suggesting Saturday's test should see them at their optimum.

Only heavy rain and a marked deterioration in conditions would dent confidence in the latter with his handler insisting good ground is the slowest he would ideally like for the son of Frankel.

It would come as no surprise to see the stamina-laden Pierre Bonnard make another huge step forward, even if his head carriage didn't match that of his Leopardstown conqueror last time and James J Braddock provides his fabulous trainer a major chance of going two better than last year's third place with Tennessee Stud.  

Sam Turner's Epsom Derby 1-2-3

1 Benvenuto Cellini

2 James J Braddock

3 Ancient Egypt

Now read Katie Midwinter's latest horse racing tips here