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Today's Racing News: Net Tuesday's cash with Ernie at Newbury

Daryl Carter
31 May 2022
4:00 min read

Newbury is the host of today's feature event.

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Tuesday's racing brings action from Newbury, Leicester, Brighton, Ballinrobe, Tipperary, Thirsk and Yarmouth. Daryl Carter is searching for his third consecutive headline winner and is on hand with all your daily stats and betting info...

"...ready preference is for Ernie's Valentine, who has plenty of reasons to improve, including stepping up in distance for the first time, and with the fastest time performances in the book, he is very hard to ignore."

Money Talk

Money Talk continues to highlight the Betfair Sportsbook big-money moves to keep you in the loop. This section highlights market moves between 1:00 am and 9:00 am.

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Mark your card

The Betfair Sportsbook is paying extra places today!

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At Newbury in the 13:00, trainer Alice Haynes is six for 15 with her two-year-olds this season, and today, she saddles Expeditious 12.011/1, who made need further in time but looks a good each-way proposition against the favourite.

Short priced double?

In the 14:40 at Newbury, Eternal Pearl 1.84/5 looks like a winner in waiting for the Charlie Appleby yard. It would be extremely disappointing should she not get the job done after an excellent run at Goodwood 11 days ago.

At Yarmouth in the 20:04, trainer Chris Wall has a 20% strike rate in the last five years at this venue and has booked Hollie Doyle for the ride on Mango Boy 1.910/11, and she has a 26% strike rate.

The double pays 2.27

Trainer Simon Crisford has a 23% strike rate with handicap debutants. Today he runs Another Romance 3.7511/4 in the 16:00 at Leicester.

In the 19:52 at Thirsk, trainer Roger Varian has only sent one first time out three-year-old to this venue. Today he sends his second in Qabilah 3.55/2. The trainer has a 33% strike rate with this age group at Thirsk.

Last seen chasing home Derby favourite Desert Crown and trainer Alan King boasting a 19% strike rate with first time gelded runners, Forward Flight 3.55/2 in the 20:34 at Yarmouth is worth a second look.

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Horses for courses

This section highlights the best bets from horses that have won twice or more at today's tracks.

15:20 Brighton - Little Boy Blue - Has won here three times (60%)
16:55 Brighton - King Crimson - Has won here five times (42%)
17:29 Yarmouth - Spanish Mane - Has won here twice (11%)

Weighted to go well

"Weighted to go well" highlights horses running that are more than 10lbs below their last winning handicap mark.

14:20 Brighton - Minhaaj - Has won off 80 runs off 65
18:22 Thirsk - Blackheath - Has won off 87 runs off 71
20:27 Thirsk - Just Hiss - Has won off 82 runs off 64

Furthest traveller

Today's furthest traveller is trainer Simon Hodgson who has made the 246-mile journey to Thirsk with his sole runner on the card Charlie Arthur 5.04/1 18:52. This is just the second time the trainer has had a runner at this venue and the first for five years.

Race of the day

We head to Newbury for our race of the day the 16:10 7f Handicap. A good field of nine runners goes to post with many unexposed and open to improvement.

Hebrides landed a Nottingham Novice event on seasonal return needing every yard of the six-furlong trip to score and should be well-suited by today's step up in distance. He is a steady improver, although the bare form of what he has achieved doesn't warrant him such a short price in this competitive field.

It's highly likely his "yard form" has compressed his price.

Galiac won well at Goodwood ten days ago, and a seven pounds rise from the handicapper may not be enough to stop him going in again here. That race on paper looked far more competitive than this one, and despite the fact that a few in behind had excuses, it was a career-best effort.

He looks like the type to continue his progress and must be feared.

Ernie's Valentine had a productive two-year-old campaign and showed that he had trained on at Newmarket last time with a fast-finishing effort doing the best of those from off the pace. That sprint form looks strong, and on breeding, he is expected to relish this step up to seven furlongs for the first time. Connections switch out the blinkers for the cheek-pieces and retain the talented seven-pound claimer who looks excellent value.

He arrives on an upward curve and has clocked the two best time figures in this race.

Big race verdict

This is a good event, but the ready preference is for Ernie's Valentine, who has plenty of reasons to improve, including stepping up in distance for the first time, and with the fastest time performances in the book, he is very hard to ignore.

Carter's Royal Ascot NAP, NB and each way shout

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With Royal Ascot on the horizon, Daryl Carter gives us his ante-post NAP, NB and each-way shout for the Royal meeting...

Read Carter's tips here.

Final Word - Trainer form, again!

Everyone that follows me knows that I think "yard form" is nothing but mythological nonsense, and now and then, I like to throw a comment at it after I have been wound up again to release the stress. So look away now.

There is nothing more frustrating than seeing pundits constantly reiterating how many winners the yard has had in the last week or month to make a case for a horse's chance - interesting at times, yes, relevant, no.

Yard form is nothing but variance, and following it is a way to the poor house; why? Because the price contracts if a yard is talked about being "in form" regardless of what the individual horse has done, so why would you play into the bookie's hands? When a yard is so-called "out of form", the price of the horse is naturally bigger than it should be.

I really don't understand why this has become a thing that people just fall in line with, like brainwashed monks, when there is no way to quantify it.

Trainers, yard staff and those closest to horses are all quick to say that they have their own individual personalities, so why don't most treat them this way when it comes to betting?

A yard is never constantly in form, and the reason is that their horses become poorly handicapped, exposed, or older and not as good as they once were and, on some occasions, just don't fancy it. That's not in or out of form. That's the natural cycle of horse racing.

At the beginning of March, Nicky Henderson commented on this when interviewed, "O Nicky, are you worried about the yard form going into Cheltenham?" "No", he said, "I just haven't been running horses of any quality because the others are awaiting the festival."

Another prime example was Paul Nicholls' Dolos scooting up at Sandown at odds of 10/1 in January despite being the best-handicapped horse in the race and having an excellent track record - If the yard were not "out of form", he would have been a 3/1 chance.

William Haggas has been cock of the walk this month, yet variance is now starting to kick in.

Haggas has had four winners from his last 32 runners, including eight beaten favourites, three of which were odds on. Is he now suddenly "out of form"? No, there are reasons why a horse will or won't get beat, and I tell you, for one thing, it's not because his stablemate who he had breakfast with wins or doesn't.

This term, Charlie Appleby has had an excellent season, but he has had six beaten favourites from his last 15 runners. If Royal Ascot was tomorrow, would it stop you from backing the 2,000 Guineas winner Coroebus if he was 3/1 instead of 2/5? No should be the answer.

Until tomorrow, be lucky.

Follow Daryl Carter on Twitter @DarylCarter7