Money Talk continues to highlight the Betfair Sportsbook big-money moves to keep you in the loop. This section highlights market moves between 1:00 am and 9:00 am.
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The Betfair Sportsbook is paying extra places today!
Trainer Charlie Appleby seems to have an excellent strike rate wherever he goes, and it's no different at Goodwood. He has a 50% (7-14) strike rate here with two-year-olds in the last five seasons and today starts off Mischief Magic 2.68/5 in the 13:00.
The 14:10 Height Of Fashion Stakes at Goodwood looks like a cracking race with plenty of potential on the show but none more so than Sea Silk Road 2.68/5, who scored decisively at Nottingham and is representing a trainer with a 25% strike rate with three-year-old's here in the last five years.
Eternal Pearl and Emotion both have Oaks entries, and the former showed up well on debut at Ascot!
Sir Michael Stoute has a 21% strike rate with three-year-olds at Goodwood, and he has booked William Buick for the ride on Crystal Estrella 6.511/2 in the 15:55. The trainer and jockey combo has had a 23% strike rate in the last five years.
Over at Bath, trainer George Boughey has a 31.7% strike rate with last time out winners. Colombe 1.75/7 will attempt back to back wins at 15:30.
Every winner in the last ten years of the 14:30 Cecil Frail Listed contest at Haydock has recorded an RPR of 101 plus, and three-year-olds have won the last three runnings. Flotus 3.02/1 and Illustrating 12.011/1 look like the two that fit the bill. Four-year-old Ventura Diamond 7.513/2 sets the form standard.
In the 16:15 at Haydock, trainer Nigel Tinkler is 0-9 with last time out all-weather winners switching to the turf, so Dougies Dream 3.55/2 may be worth taking on. Rogue Star 6.511/2 represents Tom Clover, who has a 50% ROI with his handicap debutants.
Horses for courses
This section highlights the best bets from horses that have won twice or more at today's tracks.
14:30 Haydock - Mo Celita - Has won here twice (100%)
14:45 Goodwood - Spanish Star - Has won here twice (33%)
14:55 Bath - Sarah's Verse - Has won here three times (33%)
Weighted to go well
"Weighted to go well" highlights horses running that are more than 10lbs below their last winning handicap mark.
13:10 Bath - Grey Galleon - Has won off 65 runs off 55
17:20 Catterick - Spanish Angel - Has won off 81 runs off 59
18:28 Catterick - Red Force One - Has won off 81 runs off 66
Today's furthest traveller is trainer Robert Cowell who makes the 203-mile journey from his base to Catterick with two runners. Corporate Raider 5.04/1 17:53 and Isle Of Lismore 19:03 - both have good chances.
The double pays 14.013/1
Race of the day
Our race of the day comes from Goodwood the 15:20 where seven runners head to post, and there looks as though there will be a good shift around in this market come post time.
Lysander is the current favourite at the time of writing and bolted up in an ordinary Novice event at Newcastle last time, which gave off a good visual impression. Still, that form took multiple knocks, including from the runner-up at Sandown yesterday, and he did no more on the clock than the 93 rated handicap winner on the card.
The visual impression of that performance has been over-egged by this market today, and he was behind Lionel on his debut, so he has a bit to prove in this deeper contest with likely competition for the lead.
This easier track should suit Natural World, but he has shaped like he wants a drop-in distance after dictating falsely run races from the front the last twice and only came out on top on debut by circumstance.
He clung on to the lead from the runner-up and subsequent winner Ottoman Fleet who came from further back, and Lionel was also unfavoured by his racing position when a fast-finishing third. He needs to take a step forward, but his future may lie over 1m.
I am not sure if he is as highly thought of at home as the market suggests he is.
Lionel has come from unpromising positions in both starts to date, and granted luck in-running could have the measure of those at the top of today's market.
He was value for much more when conceding the first run to Ottoman Fleet and Natural World at Newbury after having to switch behind runners when denied a clear passage. He had Derby and Dante aspirations at the start of the season, so he is clearly highly regarded.
Big race verdict
This is a cracker, and it's hard to write off even those at bigger odds. Still, this is a cracking opportunity for Lionel to get Newbury revenge after being far better than the bare result, and the market has underestimated his ability.
Thanks for your question @brysonbonus
I can only speak for myself in this regard, for which I keep an extensive excel profit and loss sheet that records SP, BSP and advised odds. I also record trainer, jockey, course, class, surface, official rating, the in-running highs and lows, drifters, win or place, and finishing position. This is filtered by day, month, course, price bracket, official rating bracket and points staked.
I am not going to add BOG to that list because I don't get that luxury, and it's a bonus if people do and should be looked upon as such. A tipster is advising a price is doing so for value and therefore, the advised price should be good enough to make a healthy profit, and best odds will do nothing but inflate this (and some will claim it), so recommended prices should be the minimum one should expect.
Also, where does it stop? I agree entirely any tipster worth their salt should have an extensive profit and loss - not just a basic one!
Still, a free tipster should be working hard to find the value winners, not spending most of their time filling in a spreadsheet. Providing they offer a balanced sheet to advised prices, SP prices and BSP prices, I think that should be enough, but I see your point, and there's no harm in adding it in if you have the time.
Carter's Saturday fancies
There are lots to like on Saturday but at the top of my list is Ascot Adventure, who can strike in the 16:55 at Haydock. The four-year-old takes on mainly exposed rivals today and is well worth another chance at this seven-furlong trip after catching the eye with a fast-finishing fourth at Doncaster. That race that has produced four subsequent winners and four next time out second-place finishes.
He has only raced one other time over seven furlongs, and that came on heavy ground at Newbury on his penultimate start when doing too much too soon on the front end in a race where it paid to be held up (1st, 2nd, 34d, 4th, 5th all came from off the pace). That run was well below his average figures, so it's easy to put a line through it, and he was subsequently gelded before his latest run at Doncaster.
He is entitled to improve for his latest run on the back of a 156-day break, and he has two excellent pieces of form over 6f when sticking on strongly behind some unexposed three-year-olds that are higher in the weights. His Salisbury win last term now sees the runner-up 12lbs higher in the weights, so he must have a big shout today.
Earlier on the card 15:45, Existent 13.012/1 looks too big a price after his fast-finishing second behind Khadem at Newmarket. That was his first attempt at five furlongs on turf, and he recorded a figure ten pounds clear of anything else he has achieved on turf. I am not convinced by Winter Power away from York.
Over at York in the 14:55, I do want to follow Winter Power's form line with Atalis Bay 9.08/1, who returns to the scene of his excellent second to that one when recording an electric figure. This track really suits front runners.
Royal Ascot is just over the horizon, and I am about to put pen to paper for Betfair with an ante-post NAP, NB and each-way shout, and in all honesty, I could write down about ten names! I love this meeting every year - it's the Cheltenham Festival for the flat in my mind.
First, we have the Epsom Derby two weeks tomorrow, and it's a market I have been going through and through, and I just don't see the appeal in this talking horse Piz Badile nor any of the Irish runners, in all honesty.
Piz Badile is to be ridden by Frankie Dettori, but is he a bigger asset than a Ryan Moore or a William Buick? I don't think so. While he is a fantastic jockey and has achieved so much in his career I am not sure he is miles ahead of the other top jock's in the country.
His rides at Epsom in Group 1-3 company have had winners with Snowfall, Anapurna, Willamina, Enable, Cracksman and Golden Horn. Now I could have won on four of those! Cracksman was a 2/7f and Golden Horn 13/8f.
I just don't understand this hysteria around who Frankie rides in the Derby? Cue a Dettori Derby win...
Until Monday, be lucky.
Follow Daryl Carter on Twitter @DarylCarter7