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Daily Racing News: Look to Irish raiders at Ayr and Pauling stats at Southwell

Alan Dudman
29 November 2022
5:00 min read

Trainer Ben Pauling is a man in form at Southwell this season

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Alan Dudman has Tuesday's betting news, stat of the day horse, furthest traveller and race of the day selections in the latest Daily Racing News column...

Alan's headline 4/1 winner landed the feature at Wolves yesterday
Three jumps cards for Tuesday including Punchestown, and Extra Place Specials on the AW
Alan Dudman has Tuesday's Daily Racing News and provides the stats, movers and betting angles for a busy afternoon and evening
Away from racing, follow all our best World Cup content in our Live Blog here

A decent day of action on Tuesday, and a busy one too with jumping from Ayr and Southwell in the UK plus an eight-race card to look forward to Punchestown with some big fields and a plethora of runners. Twelve months ago, Kerry National winner Busselton landed the Novice Chase on this card, so there's some quality in awaiting and a dry afternoon is in store so expect yielding turf. A fine race over fences is one to look forward to at Ayr with Captain Quint, Gold Cup Bailly and Doctor Ken doing battle - sadly without Donny Boy who is a non. Southwell have seven races and like Ayr, a dry day lies ahead with the best races at 0-120 level.

On the All-Weather, there's an early start at 11:40 for the eight races on the polytrack at Lingfield, and Wolverhampton goes into the evening with a matinee card and another nine-race bonanza.

Money Talk

Money Talk continues to highlight the Betfair Sportsbook big-money moves to keep you in the loop. This section shows market moves between 1:00 am and 9:00 am.

Which horses is the Betfair Sportsbook market suggesting to back?

12:00 Ayr: Andre Le Notre 26.025/1 into 16.015/1.
12:35 Ayr: Jet Legs 13.012/1 into 9.08/1.
14:40 Ayr: Asking For Answers 21.020/1 into 11.010/1, and Bannside 29.028/1 into 19.018/1.
13:00 Southwell: Feivel 10.09/1 into 7.06/1.
15:35 Southwell: Large Action 26.025/1 into 15.014/1.
12:50 Punchestown: Ellis Boyd Redding 23.022/1 into 13.012/1.
14:55 Punchestown: Aide De Camp 26.025/1 into 12.011/1.

Which horses is the Betfair Sportsbook market suggesting to lay?

11:40 Lingfield: Deep Sigh 2.89/5 out to 3.259/4.
13:35 Southwell: Zuckerberg 1.910/11 out to 2.1011/10.
16:50 Wolverhampton: Baccarat Baby 2.3811/8 out to 3.02/1.

Click here to read about the best backed runners for the day's action in a regular feature for the biggest market mover from 10:30am

Mark your card

The Betfair Sportsbook is paying extra places today!

Plenty of Extra Place Special action on the Sportsbook for an extremely busy Tuesday and seven races for the each-way punters to look forward to.

At Lingfield, two divisions of the 1m4f Handicap are both Extra Place races with 14 runners in each at 13:20 and 13:50. The 14:50 is another with 14 runners over 2m and course specialist Capricorn Prince is bidding for his fifth Lingfield victory.

One Extra Place Special at Ayr, and it's the 14:40 2m4f Handicap Chase. Lucinda Russell won the race 12 months ago with Rapid Raider, and is looking to do so again with Spark Of Madness. He's progressive, and won for the second time over fences in four starts at Newcastle last time out.

At Wolverhampton, three Extra Places await punters for another workaday card in the Midlands. The 15:15 6f Handicap has 12 runners for Amateur Jockeys.

The 18:20 is another Extra Place Special over 1m, and the finale 18:50 over 1m4f completes the set.

Stat Of The Day

Trainer Stuart Edmunds holds a perfect 100% record with his two runners at Southwell this season, and his sole representative on the afternoon in the Midlands is My Girl Lollipop in the 15:35 2m4f Handicap Hurdle.. It's her second run in handicap company today and is better than what she showed on her final start last spring at Uttoxeter.

Horses for courses

This section highlights horses that have won twice or more at today's tracks and could be in with a chance today.

12:35 Ayr: Charm Offensive has won here twice (25%).
14:40 Ayr: Ardera Cross has won here six times (30%).
11:40 Lingfield: Classy Dame has won here twice (29%).
13:20 Lingfield: Catch My Breath has won here three times (18%), and Laurentia has won here twice (20%).
13:50 Lingfield: Miss Elsa has won here three times (23%).
14:50 Lingfield: Capricorn Prince has won here four times (57%).
15:20 Lingfield: Coolagh Magic has won here twice (40%), and Come On Girl has won here four times (31%).
14:45 Wolverhampton: Tathmeen has won here three times (15%).
15:15 Wolverhampton: Burtonwood has won here twice (40%), Peachey Carnehan has won here four times (10%), Glorious Charmer has won here twice (12%), and Camachess has won here twice (25%).
15:50 Wolverhampton: The Daley Express has won here twice (15%), and Second Collection has won here twice (15%).
16:20 Wolverhampton: Lady Percival has won here twice (67%), and Peripeteia has won here twice (40%).
17:50 Wolverhampton: Light Up Our Stars has won here twice (22%).
17:20 Wolverhampton: Inexplicable has won here five times (25%).
18:50 Wolverhampton: International Law has won here five times (13%).

Weighted to go well

"Weighted to go well" highlights horses running that are more than 10lbs below their last winning handicap mark.

14:40 Ayr: Ardera Cross has won off 114 and today runs form 91.
15:05 Southwell: Ratfacemcdougall has won off 133 and today runs from 117.
12:15 Punchestown: Spancil Hill has won off 107 and today runs from 95.
13:20 Lingfield: Catch My Breath has won off 69 and today runs from 51.
13:50 Lingfield: Maykir has won off 58 and today runs from 46, and Colonial Love has won off 66 and today runs from 52.
15:20 Lingfield: Boom The Groom has won off 72 and today runs from 62.
14:45 Wolverhampton: Tathmeen has won off 71 and today runs from 50.
15:15 Wolverhampton: Camachess has won off 64 and today runs from 52.
15:50 Wolverhampton: Lihou has won off 85 and today runs from 73.

Furthest traveller

Olly Murphy sends Doctor Ken out from his Warwickshire base to Scotland, and he wins the race at least for the furthest traveller section today at 323 miles. The 6yo won his chasing debut last time at Aintree and has gone up 4lb for today's 13:40 2m4f Novices' Handicap Chase. Murphy has described him as a 'gorgeous, big horse' and he jumped well in Liverpool, which surpassed anything he achieved in five runs over hurdles.

Form Watch

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Young Patrick Wadge is enjoying some good numbers of late with a month's strike-rate of 57% and four wins from seven. He rides Bannside in the 14:40 2m4f Handicap Chase, and was backed too from 28s into 18/1 last night on the Sportsbook.

Callum Bewley is the man with a 100% record however at Ayr this term, and is 2-2 thus far. His first of two mounts Jet Legs was another mover on the Sportsbook last night from 12s into 8s for trainer Martin Todhunter and had previously shown some promise in novice hurdles before his 17L effort in handicap company last time at Newcastle.

The two Nicks - Richards and Alexander are the leading trainers at Ayr in the last five seasons, with Richards on 38 and Alexander on 34 and both show profits at 5.89 and +2.00 from over 400 runners between them. Maughold Head is the best chance for the Greystoke man, but he's in opposition to a 1/2 favourite in the 13:10.

Nicky Richards 1280 .jpg

Alexander has the odds-on favourite Gaillimh A Stor 1.84/5 in the opening 12:00 2m3f Novices' Hurdle and is also 4-17 this season on the west coast of Scotland.

Sam Twiston-Davies is less on the hot scale at the moment, and the Twister is without a winner from his last 34 rides. He only has one mount on the afternoon and it's in the closing 15:45 2m4f Handicap Hurdle with Balinesker Beach 9.08/1.

Danny Brooke heads to Southwell with confidence, as the trainer is 4-9 at 44% and has struck with two of his last three runners. His Humps And Bumps 15.014/1 also runs in the 15:45 and had attracted some support last night from 18/1. Conditional Emma Smith-Chaston is on, and she is 3-15 in the last two weeks and she's a jockey I rate.

Nico De Boinville is 2-4 at 50% at Southwell this term, and Ile De Jersey at 11/8 should add to his tally in the opening 12:25 2m4f Novices' Handicap Chase. She was 6L ahead at the last on her chasing debut last time out before falling at Taunton.

A trainer that continues to be in the good books is Ben Pauling. He's 4-10 at Southwell this season - which is superior to his 15-92 record over the last five seasons here. His last six runners recently have finished 221122. I know the feeling with those seconds!

The Gloucestershire man has a good chance of a double this afternoon with Mrs Grimley 2.56/4 in the 14:35 2m Maiden Hurdle and Sporting Mike 4.03/1 in the 15:35. The former won her bumper at Southwell and looks to have a fair enough claim with Keilan Woods on - a jockey who is 6-18 at the venue this term and the leading rider.

The double on the Pauling two pays 9/1 on the Sportsbook and is worth a look.

Jack Kennedy and Bryan Cooper are two jockeys in the black in terms of their profit at Punchestown this term. Kennedy is +19.16 at 27% this far, with Copper second in the table at +14.00.

Joseph O'Brien is 30% from his 10 runners but in the last five seasons, Willie Mullins has sent out an astonishing 672 runners with 146 winners. And guess what? He shows a loss.

Race of the day

Ayr Races Richard Johnson - 1280.jpg

The ground could be bordering on the better side of good to soft with a dry couple of days for the forecast, and a good collection of novice chasers line up in the 13:40 2m5f Limited Handicap Chase</a.

The apple of my eye Donny Boy sadly was taken out last night and is a non-runner for what essentially looks the quality on the day in Scotland.

Stuart Crawford's Gold Cup Bailly only had three runs over hurdles over two seasons, so the trainer and owners have wasted little time in getting him over the larger ones. He won his chase debut at Wexford, and that didn't look a bad Beginners', but his most interesting piece of form was 4L behind Ahoy Senor in 2021 over hurdles. It's good to see him back up a run so quickly considering he's not stood much racing thus far.

Doctor Ken is another with limited amount of hurdles' experience but sent chasing quickly. He won well at Aintree on his fencing bow too, winning by nearly 3L. His jumping stood up well, while Captain Quint's didn't on Saturday and he unseated at the first at Newcastle. Can we trust the cognatively challenged chaser?

Craig Nichol will hopefully last longer on Tuesday and shows a profit of +28.00 in five years here.

Aidan Coleman is riding Doctor Ken, despite no longer being the retained Murphy jock, and he's quite successful in his Scottish raids with 6-23 at 26% in the past five seasons and shows a profit of +5.25.

The 5yo Hasty Brook might be unfancied, but he didn't fare too badly in a couple of runs over hurdles at Ayr last term and looks every inch a chaser as he has plenty of size about him. He was bred by French trainer Guy Cherel and will certainly get 3m down the line.

Big race verdict

With no Donny Boy, it leaves me with Gold Cup Bailly, as there looked some depth to his Wexford victory and winning on heavy last term means he'll have no issue with the stamina. His jumping was pretty good bar one sloppy error and could outstay his rivals. Captain Quint looks a bit erratic. Stuart Crawford's runners can be a little overbet on their sorties from Ireland, and the trainer has an 11-96 record here in five seasons.

Minus one of the star attractions, the price isn't wild at 6/4, but 130 could seriously under-play him considering he was 4L within Ahoy Senor as a young hurdler, and he can make up for lost time.

Daryl Carter's latest Cheltenham Festival Focus from a top weekend

Daryl Carter Saturday Racing Tips.png

Daryl Carter's seventh Cheltenham Festival Focus column reflects on one of the best Saturday's jumping days of the season so far and with his latest round-up has found two more bets to add to his ante-post punting list. Click here to read what Daryl says, and to find out who the horse is whom he said "I loved everything about him".

Tony Calvin on the Betfair Tingle Creek

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Click here for the latest Ditcheat Diary from Betfair Ambassador Paul Nicholls, and the champion trainer reflects on one opponent he is keen to avoid in the future and the latest on Bryony Frost.

Tony Calvin on the Betfair Tingle Creek

Tony Calvin Grand National fence.png

Our big price tipster Tony Calvin was in fine form at the weekend and gives his latest ante-post take on Sandown this weekend. Click here to read TC's latest preview.

Timeform preview Tuesday's action at Punchestown

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Adam Houghton is once again at the Timeform helm with three selections for the Punchestown card on Tuesday. The Halifax team have identified a trio of bets in Ireland, including a 12/1 swing each-way. Click here to read the tips.

Final Word

It's a personal punting few words today. Last week wasn't a bad one with Dorking Boy winning at Kempton at a decent price, but a string of seconds in the Daily Racing Multiple column included a second in the Troytown, and a another at Dundalk at a BSP of nearly 18.0. For good measure Island Run finished runner-up and chinned at 1.011/100 the basement price and yesterday's double was denied with a one-two. Those seconds really do grate.

The question is whether to trade out and how often do you back to lay? With a few of those, I'd gone old school as I occasionally like to have a bet in a betting shop - although I didn't appreciate someone next to me cheering on every single winner - just as it came up to the winning line without a word at any point before any race. I am not sure he backed a loser!

Trading on every runner requires a lot of discipline, and while some smooth travellers are prime B t L material, you have to stick to your guns.

However, on the plus side, I have been in a decent run with three successive bumper winners on the spin in the Multiple column, and while some might say it's because it's nearest to Flat racing (tongue in cheek), I often think bumpers are overlooked and readily ignored - much like a Hunter Chase. Although I know nothing about the latter in the quest to find winner - I'll leave that to that man in bookies.

Daryl Carter is back for his Wednesday to Friday shift, so good luck with the punting today. You can follow me on Twitter @DudmanAl.

Take advantage of the extra places on offer at Betfair on this weekend's Horse Racing. T&Cs apply.

Recommended bets

Back Gold Cup Bailly @ 2.56/4 in the 13:40 at Ayr Back Mrs Grimley @ 2.56/4 in the 14:35 at Southwell

Join

View market

Read past articles

More Daily Racing News

Tony Calvin Tips

Racing...Only Bettor

Rhys Williams Tips

Rachael Blackmore Insight

Today's Racing News

Racing Results & Replays

Alan's headline 4/1 winner landed the feature at Wolves yesterday

Three jumps cards for Tuesday including Punchestown, and Extra Place Specials on the AW

Alan Dudman has Tuesday's Daily Racing News and provides the stats, movers and betting angles for a busy afternoon and evening

Money Talk

Click here to read about the best backed runners for the day's action in a regular feature for the biggest market mover from 10:30am

Mark your card

Stat Of The Day

Horses for courses

Weighted to go well

Furthest traveller

Form Watch

Race of the day

Big race verdict

Daryl Carter's latest Cheltenham Festival Focus from a top weekend

Tony Calvin on the Betfair Tingle Creek

Tony Calvin on the Betfair Tingle Creek

Timeform preview Tuesday's action at Punchestown

Final Word

Extra Place Races

Recommended bets

Read past articles