Golf Tips: Best bets for the Northern Trust and Czech Masters

  • Max Liu
  • 3:00 min read
Dustin Johnson drives at the Northern Trust
Dustin Johnson won the Northern Trust in 2020

Get the best bets from Steve Rawlings, Dave Tindall and more golf experts for this week's Northern Trust on the PGA Tour while for the European Tour it's the Czech Masters...

Dave Tindall: "Several fit the bill but, as I did at the WGC-St. Jude Invitational, I'll make Daniel Berger the headline pick. He was 22/1 on that occasion and landed the each-way cash by finishing in tied fifth.

The Northern Trust: Is DJ set for the four-timer?

With the top-125 set after the Wyndham Championship, the FedEx Cup Series kicks off in New York on Thursday and Steve Rawlings has the lowdown on the Northern Trust.

Steve says: "With so few events having been played here, finding a decent angle in is hard but there's evidence to suggest anyone that plays links tracks well may appreciate the test this week.

"The winner here two years ago, Patrick Reed, has a reasonable Open Championship record (two top-12s), Jon Rahm, who was third behind Reed, is a magnificent links exponent, and I couldn't help but notice how many links specialists and Open champions contended at Liberty National in both 2009 and 2013, so a high finish at Royal St George's last month could be a big plus..."

"The rejuvenated Jordan Spieth looks a fair price at 20.019/1. He sat second at halfway in 2019 when woefully out of form at the time before a 74 in round three saw him fall off the pace. He eventually finished sixth but that was a cracking result given how poorly he was playing at the time, and it suggests that this is a venue at which he could really shine.

"Having suffered the disappointment of finishing second in the Open Championship in his penultimate start, Spieth started slowly at the WGC FedEx St Jude last time out (52nd at halfway) but he rallied over the weekend to finish 12th and I expect him to be fit and firing here..."

"It's 10 years since the defending champion, Dustin Johnson, won the first of his three Northern Trust titles and I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised to see him nail down his fourth this week.

"DJ comes into the tournament slightly under the radar, just as he did 12 months ago but he led the tournament here two years ago at halfway, so this is another venue that suits.

"I like the chances of Jordan Spieth and Dustin Johnson and the fact that they've both won at Augusta is another fillip."

Steve's bet: Back Dustin Johnson @ 23.022/1

The Northern Trust First-Round Leader Tips: Wolff can wow on day one

Who has the game to take the competition by storm on Thursday? Dave Tindall has three each-way picks to be First Round Leader.

Dave says: "Matthew Wolff has had his struggles this year, his game clearly affected by some mental health challenges. But after a sabbatical from April to June he's showing some good signs again. He returned with a T15 in the US Open and earlier this month was T17 at the WGC-St. Jude Invitational.

"That hints at an ability to step it up when the elite gather and a look at the entry list this week gives him another chance to do so. Notably for this bet, he's got a good record of bursting out of the blocks in big events.

Matthew Wolff.jpg

"In this very tournament last year an opening 65 put him fifth after day one while a Thursday 66 in the 2020 US Open saw him end the first round in second place. He was 11th on the R1 leaderboard at this year's US Open and his opening 64 at St. Jude put him second following the opening lap.

"Wolff didn't exactly excel here at Liberty National in 2019 although his best lap (69) came on day one. Let's chance him to come out throwing early punches again."

Dave's bet: Back Matthew Wolff E/W for First Round Leader @ 86.085/1

Find Me a 100 Winner: Lefty's too big at Liberty National

Steve Rawlings picks his outsiders to trade in both this week's tournaments including a PGA Tour favourite who already upset the odds this year to win a Major.

"There are several US Masters winners in the field this week and five of them are trading at a triple-figure price - Sergio Garcia, Bubba Watson, Phil Mickelson, Charl Schwartzel and Zach Johnson.

"All five look nicely priced but the logical selection must be Phil Mickelson. As also highlighted in the preview, the last three tournament winners have all been top-class major winners that hadn't been at their best but two of them, DeChambeau and Dustin Johnson, just like Lefty, had won a tournament earlier in the season. Mickelson famously won the USPGA Championship in May.

"Lefty is a member at Liberty National and his form figures in the first three editions here read 52-6-71. The sixth in 2013 is a decent effort and he also performed very well here in the Presidents Cup in 2017."

Steve's bet: Back 1 ½ u Phil Mickelson @ 230.0229/1 Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

The Northern Trust Each-Way Tips: Berger can land Liberty loot

Next Dave seeks more profits with three tips for the action at Liberty National and recommends backing a player who's already come up with the goods for the column this season.

Dave says: "It's not an over-complicated week: we're looking for a top 25 player with strong recent TTG numbers. Several fit the bill but, as I did at the WGC-St. Jude Invitational, I'll make Daniel Berger the headline pick.

"Berger was 22/1 on that occasion and landed the each-way cash by finishing in tied fifth. He ranked 1st for SG: Approach and 3rd for SG: Tee To Green but only just managed to creep into positive figures with the putter.

"However, that's the recipe that works in this event and on this course so his modest performance on the greens (he was 25th for SGP) isn't a concern.

"Berger's last four finishes now show T5 at St Jude, T8 at the Open Championship, T34 at the John Deere and T7 at the US Open. That's high-class consistency and, given the variety of courses on which he achieved those top 10s, he looks a good bet anywhere right now."

Dave's bet: Back Daniel Berger E/W @ 29.028/1

The Northern Trust 2021: Form stats

Andy Swales has everything you need to know for the Northern Trust as he shares course info for the Liberty National Golf Club and the players' form.

Andy says: "With the exception of the four majors and Players Championship, this will be the strongest field teeing-up in the world this year.

"The ability to get up and down safely from tight spots will be all-important this week, so pros such as Jordan Spieth and Webb Simpson should fancy their chances. Both Spieth and Simpson have previous top-10s at Liberty National, as does Ian Poulter whose chances of contending this Sunday must be reasonable.

"Another pro whose particularly accurate game should be suitable for Liberty National is Abraham Ancer. The Mexican will still be buzzing from his long overdue victory at TPC Southwind when he won the prestigious WGC St Jude Invitational earlier this month - following four runner-up finishes on the PGA Tour.

One of these came at Liberty National two years ago when he finished one shot adrift of champion Patrick Reed.

"And a final mention for 37-year-old Kevin Na, who is a five-time winner on the PGA Tour including once this year. The South Korean-born American lost a play-off at Sedgefield on Sunday and certainly knows a thing or two about scrambling his way to safety. However, in a field of this immense strength, Na is more likely to offer a strong e/w opportunity."

Andy's bet: Back Kevin Na each-way @ 80/1

Czech Masters: Crocker and Karlberg chanced

The European Tour returns to the Czech Republic after a year off and our man has the lowdown ahead of Thursday's start...

Steve says: "At the very first edition of this event, Sky Sports' Wayne 'Radar' Riley likened the course to the London Club, which was the venue for last week's Cazoo Classic and he may have been onto something given an out-of-form Paul Peterson, the surprise 2016 winner, was in-contention last week until a very poor third round and that the inaugural winner here, Jamie Donaldson, finished third in the last week.

"After a steady run of European Tour action week after week for the first time in some time thanks to the pandemic, we've seen the same players contending every week for the last month or so and I suspect last week's event will be as a good a guide as any..."

"The last five European Tour winners have all been breaking their duck on the Tour and I fancy the talented Zimbabwe-born American, Sean Crocker, might just be the next cab off the rank.

"Quite what happened to him on Friday last week, I've no idea, but the big-hitting 24-year-old ended up missing the cut having sat second after an opening 66 in round one, despite being drawn on the wrong side of the draw on Thursday!

"How he reacts to the 79 in round two is going to be interesting but he has the length off the tee and the approach game to prosper here and recent high finishes of 11th in the European Open and ninth in the Irish Open suggest he's not far off."

Steve's bet: Back Sean Crocker @ 42.041/1

Czech Masters Each-Way Tips: Probably the best story if Karlberg wins

Matt Cooper has three each-way selections with the Betfair Sportsbook paying seven places for the Czech Masters...

Matt says: "Keen followers of the column may recall that I was rather keen to back Rikard Karlberg last week on the Jack Nicklaus design at London Golf Club, but unfortunately he was keeping his powder dry for this week.

"No matter, Jamie Donaldson did us proud, chasing the win deep into the back nine on Sunday before securing the full place payout and a nice profit.

"But perhaps Karlberg knew exactly what he was doing, because this week's venue holds fond memories for him. It was on the par-72 7,467-yard course at Albatross Golf Resort near Prague that the Swede enjoyed a revival of form on the 2019 European Tour after a two year period of ill health.

"In the run-up to that effort, when he flirted with the lead throughout the week, he had played well in Finland and Austria.

"Two years on he's missed a lot of cuts, but he also finished tied second in the Irish Open last month, a result that also got him a start at the Open. His return to Prague is likely to inspire memories of that fine spell of golf two years ago and it can fuel more good stuff."

Matt's bet: Back Rikard Karlberg 1pt each-way @ 56.055/1

Czech Masters: Form stats

Andy Swales supplies the course information and the latest form for the players taking part at the Czech Masters.

Andy says: "With regards to course form, no one can match Andrea Pavan who has twice stood on the podium here, including once as champion.

But probably a better bet this week would be Jacques Kruyswijk who has sufficient length off the tee to take advantage of the normally generous Albatross fairways. The 28-year-old tied-seventh here three years ago and his form this season has been solid - albeit in run-of-the-mill European Tour events.

"Two others who have suitable prowess off the tee are Dean Burmester and young Swede Vincent Norrman. The 23-year-old from Stockholm only turned professional in June but has already made a good impression with four top-12 finishes.

There is certainly no reason why the world No 453 European Tour rookie can't win in this week's mediocre field."

Andy's bet: Back Vincent Norrman @ 29.028/1

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