Golf Tips: Best bets for John Deere Classic and BMW International Open

• Rising star Thompson fits the bill at 20/121.00

• Otaegui backed to continue good form at BMW at 74/175.00

• JT fancied to post a lone one in the first round at the John Deere

• Get expert tips for both the PGA and DP World Tour

John Deere Classic Tips and Predictions

The Punter's Preview

Steve Rawlings: "The last 10 winners here have had an average Driving Distance ranking of 27.9 and an average Driving Accuracy ranking of 22.2 so what you do off the tee is largely unimportant. Lucas Glover only ranked 15^th for Greens In Regulation in 2021 but last year's winner, Sepp Straka, ranked first, JT Poston ranked fourth two years ago and the two winners before Glover ranked second and seventh.

"No winner in the last decade has ranked any worse than 34^th for GIR (Jordan Spieth) and the average GIR ranking for the last 10 winners is 12.2 so approach play is clearly important, but this event is nearly always won on or around the greens...

"Form at Colonial Country Club, home of the Charles Schwab Challenge, is well worth scrutinising and the Valspar Championship at Copperhead is an event to look at closely too. Since this event moved to Deere Run, Steve Stricker, Zach Johnson, Kenny Perry, and Jordan Spieth have won both this and the Charles Schwab. Tim Clark has come close to winning both, finishing runner-up in each event."

Each-Way Tips: Picks from 20/1 to 100/1

Dave Tindall: "The one I like best from the top 10 in the betting is Davis Thompson, also now cut to 20/1. True, he hasn't won either but he's the man in form and with surely the highest ceiling. Thompson really caught the eye at the start of 2023 when finishing runner-up to Jon Rahm at The American Express.

"He didn't really kick on that season but the pedigree was clearly there and this former high-class amateur has really hit his straps in the last couple of months.

"Thompson has added two more second places in his last six starts, those near-misses coming at the Myrtle Beach Classic (-16) and last week's Rocket Mortgage Classic (-17) - two other low-scoring events. Between the two he really showed his class by finishing ninth in the US Open while 17th at Colonial and 27th at Memorial add to his excellent bank of current form."

First-Round Leader Tips: Picks from 40/1 to 100/1

Dave Tindall: "J.T. Poston has the chance to put his name on the leaderboard early as he heads out at 07.29 local from the 10th .

"The 31-year-old has been one of the stars of the show in this event over the last two years, winning in 2022 and adding sixth when defending in 2023.

"Poston's victory was wire-to-wire, the man from North Carolina grabbing the first-round lead with a 62 .

"He again showed his ability to shoot the lights out with a 61 in the final round of this year's Sony Open while just seven starts ago he took FRL honours again when opening with a 63 at the RBC Heritage.

"That's one of a number of fast starts over the last 12 months which include another 63 that put him second after 18 holes of the Shriners Children's Open.

"Poston, who opened with a 66 at the Travelers on his latest start, is 40/141.00."

Find Me a 100 Winner: Three chanced between 139/1 and 169/1

Steve Rawlings: "As highlighted in the preview, form at Colonial and Copperhead crosses over brilliantly with Deere Run so the recent Charles Schwab winner, Davis Riley, is a very obvious candidate.

"In addition to his runaway five-stroke victory at Colonial in May, Riley was fourth there in 2022 and he also finished second in the Valspar Championship, at Copperhead, in 2022, so he may just take to Deere Run like a duck to water on debut this week.

"In his three starts following his stunning wire-to-wire breakthrough win at Colonial, Riley has missed the cut in the Memorial Tournament, and he's finnished 48th at the Travelers Championship and 57^th last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

"A period of readjustment after a first PGA Tour success is nothing new and totally understandable but this is definitely a venue at which he can get back on track and his impressive victory in Texas will give him plenty of belief should he start nicely this week in Illinois."

Place order to lay 8 Us @ 10.09/1 & 12 Us @ 2.01/1

Course and current form stats

Andy Swales: "Following the 2021 edition, the course underwent a comprehensive renovation of its bunkers which were completely rebuilt. TPC Deere Run, which is a truly rural venue, is built on the site of a former Arabian horse farm.

"The John Deere Classic is usually a birdie-fest and, since 2009, the average-winning 72-hole total is 262.7. Therefore, a hot putter is an absolute necessity for any aspiring champion. At just under 7,300 yards, and with few monster par-4s on the scorecard, this is not a course where the big hitters enjoy a significant advantage...

"Two-time Deere Run champ Jordan Spieth 18/1 makes his first appearance at the course for nine years, although his current form is hardly inspiring. Four other pros with strong course histories are Lucas Glover 50/1, Denny McCarthy 25/1, JT Poston 33/1 and Adam Schenk 66/1.

"Of this quartet, McCarthy may provide the best opportunity this week. His recent form has been steady, although not spectacular, but he does have a couple of T10s in the bag this season."

BMW International Open Tips and Predictions

Spaniard the value in Germany at 74/1

Steve Rawlings: "Li won wire-to wire two years ago (although it was far from straightforward) and Hovland was never far away in 2021. He sat tied for 18^th and four off the lead after round one, but he was up to second at halfway and clear with a round to go.

"In 2019, Pavan led after round one, before falling off the pace and rallying on Sunday, while Ernie Els won wire-to-wire in 2013, but a fast start isn't imperative.

"Back in 2006, Henrik Stenson beat Padraig Harrington and Retief Goosen in a playoff after the three had started the event with rounds of only 71, 70 and 73 respectively. Except for Li, Ernie and Pavan, the closest to the front any winner has been after round one in the last 13 events here is tied sixth (Niclas Fasth in 2007 and Romero six years ago).

"Lawrence sat tied for 47^th after round one last year and the losing playoff protagonist in 2022, Thomas Pieters, started slowly too. He sat tied 29^th - trailing by seven. Matt Fitzpatrick was beaten in the playoff in 2019, having sat tied for 85^th after round one, so a slow start can definitely be overcome. Despite Li's wire-to-wire two years ago, this is not an easy place to front run...

"The recent China Open winner, Adrian Otaegui, was a disappointment on Sunday in Italy, having sat just one off the lead with a round to go but he's drifted out to a very appealing price again here.

"Conditions were really tricky on Sunday, and very different to those experienced over the first few days, and he was far from the only player to go backwards in round four. He's clearly in good form and I was very happy to chance him at 75.0."

Each-Way Tips: 100/1 Van Driel can defy the Double Dutch

Matt Cooper: "Darius Van Driel opened the season with a top 10 on the Johannesburg high veldt and backed that up with victory in the equally high Nairobi in the Kenya Open. Nor was his head for heights a surprise. The win was his fifth top 12 finish in Nairobi, he also has a top 10 in Madrid on the main tour and his victories on the second tier came at Geneva (379m) and Adamstal (590m).

"Rather more straightforwardly, he's made four cuts at Eichenried. The first two didn't realise much but he's become a better player and was T10th in 2022 (fourth with 18 holes to play) and T12th last year. Then there is the potential bit-between-the-teeth factor of his non-selection for Paris 2024 by the Dutch Olympic Committee.

"A statement revealed that the DOC felt that neither Van Driel, Joost Luiten or Dewi Weber had "a reasonable chance of a top-8 ranking". It sounded a lot like, well, double Dutch to most people and the golfers were understandably no different.

"Van Driel wrote on Instagram: 'The (DOC) doesn't have a clue about golf and it a shame we're suffering now. We're not going because of political reasons. A sad day for Dutch golf. #shame on you.'

"Needled, in a spot that suits, DVD can make a point this week and good on him if he does."

Course and current form stats

Andy Swales: "It is a tree-lined course where water comes into play on six holes. New trees are planted each year and, to provide a better viewing experience for spectators, numerous mounds have been built on what is a largely flat venue.

"The course has generously spacious fairways, while all putting surfaces were renovated in 2019. The slightly undulating, lightning-fast greens, are said to be among the best in Germany. Tournaments staged at München Eichenried tend to be closely-fought affairs. Just once in the last 14 instalments, has the tournament been won by more than a single stroke...

"Ryan Fox 18/1 is back in Europe having enjoyed a respectable first six months on the PGA Tour. He appears settled in the States thanks to a hat-trick of top-10 finishes since mid-April. The 37-year-old New Zealander stood on the Munich podium in 2022, having finished in a tie-for-14th a year earlier."

Read The Punter's in-play live blog for the latest betting news from both events