-
Silky scrambling skills required at Deere Run
-
Look to Copperhead and Colonial for clues
-
Tournament History
Originally called the Quad Cities Open, the John Deere Classic was first staged as a satellite tournament on the PGA Tour way back in 1971. It became an official event 12 months later and this year's renewal is the 553rd.
Initially played at the Crow Valley Country Club in Davenport, Iowa, the tournament moved to Oakwood Country Club in Illinois in 1975 and since 2000 its permanent home has been here at Deere Run.
The John Deere Classic used to be staged in the week before the Open Championship. But as next week's DP World Tour event - the Scottish Open - is now co-sanctioned with the PGA Tour, for the third year in-a-row, this year's edition is being staged two weeks before the year's final major.
Venue
TPC Deere Run, Silvis, Illinois
Course Details
Par 71 - 7,289 yards
Stroke Index in 2023 - 69.47
Designed by D.A Weibring and sitting on old Native American settlements, TPC Deere Run is a very easy track indeed, where low scores are very much the norm.
J.T Poston won wire-to wire two years ago after opening the event with a nine-under-par 62 and there were three rounds of 62 during last year's renewal.
Paul Goydos shot 59 here in 2010 and the surprise 2018 winner, Michael Kim, amassed an incredible 27-under-par total with rounds of 63, 64, 64 and 66.
Water is in play on five holes and the average-sized bentgrass greens are usually set to run at 12 on the Stimpmeter.
The two nines end with the two hardest holes on the course (both par fours) but they're far from impossible. They ranked one and two last year (as they do year after year) but they only averaged 4.12 and 4.14 and only seven holes averaged over-par for the week 12 months ago.
TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 17:00 on Thursday
Last Eight Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices
2023 - Sepp Straka -21 75.074/1
2022 - J.T Poston -25 50.049/1
2021 - Lucas Glover -19 70.069/1
2020 - Event Cancelled
2019 - Dylan Frittelli -21 90.089/1
2018 - Michael Kim -27 800.0799/1
2017 - Bryson DeChambeau -18 55.054/1
2016 - Ryan Moore -22 32.031/1
What Will it Take to Win the John Deere Classic?
The last 10 winners here have had an average Driving Distance ranking of 27.9 and an average Driving Accuracy ranking of 22.2 so what you do off the tee is largely unimportant.
Lucas Glover only ranked 15th for Greens In Regulation in 2021 but last year's winner, Sepp Straka, ranked first, JT Poston ranked fourth two years ago and the two winners before Glover ranked second and seventh.
No winner in the last decade has ranked any worse than 34th for GIR (Jordan Spieth) and the average GIR ranking for the last 10 winners is 12.2 so approach play is clearly important, but this event is nearly always won on or around the greens.
Poston only ranked 27th for Putting Average in 2022, which is surprisingly high given he's an excellent putter, but Straka ranked second last year, Glover topped the PA stats in 2021 and, although Frittelli only ranked 22nd in 2019, he ranked second for Strokes Gained Putting, and he made all 53 putts he faced inside seven feet. He missed just two of 62 inside 10 feet and Russell Henley, in second place, ranked first for PA.
The 2018 winner, Kim, ranked first for both PA and Strokes Gained Putting, the first two home in 2017 ranked second and first for SG:P and the average Putting Average ranking of the last 10 winners is 12.2.
A hot putter is usually essential but so too is a deft touch around the greens most years. Straka ranked only 42nd for Scrambling but Poston ranked third in 2022, Glover ranked fifth in 2021, and three of the last seven winners ranked first. The average Scrambling ranking for the last 10 winners is 16.1 despite Straka's lowly ranking 12 months ago.
Is There an Angle In?
Form at Colonial Country Club, home of the Charles Schwab Challenge, is well worth scrutinising and the Valspar Championship at Copperhead is an event to look at closely too.
Since this event moved to Deere Run, Steve Stricker, Zach Johnson, Kenny Perry, and Jordan Spieth have won both this and the Charles Schwab. Tim Clark has come close to winning both, finishing runner-up in each event.
Sean O'Hair, who won this tournament in 2005, finished tied for second at the 2017 Charles Schwab Challenge, alongside Deere Run specialist, Jordan Spieth, and the 2014 JDC winner, Brian Harman, finished tied for seventh alongside Stricker. The 2019 Charles Schwab winner, Kevin Na, finished second here in 2021.
Last year's Charles Schwab winner, Emiliano Grillo, finished second here on debut and behind Grillo in sixth in the CSC (beaten by three) was the surprise 2018 JDC winner, Michael Kim, and that was only his third top-six finish on the PGA Tour since he won here five years ago.
Straka again boosted the link between the two tracks when he finished fifth at Colonial in May.
The 2016 John Deere Classic winner, Ryan Moore, should have won the Valspar at Copperhead nine years ago and he was fifth there this year.
As many as four men have won that tournament as well as this one - the aforementioned Spieth, John Senden, Sean O'Hair and Vijay Singh - and the link was boosted again this year when the Cameron Young finished second to the surprise winner, Peter Malnati. Young led here by two last year on his course debut before fading to finish sixth.
Is There an Identikit Winner?
Although they all went off at a double-figure price, none of the last four winners were well-fancied and the 2018 winner, Michael Kim, must go down as one of the strangest ever winners on the PGA Tour.
Matched at 800.0799/1 before the off, Kim came into the event with form figures reading MC-MC-18-MC-MC-MC and although he's been resurrecting his career over the last two years, he's been largely disappointing since he won here.
Brian Harman was another triple-figure priced winner in 2016 but you have to go all the way back to 2001 to find the previous winner to go off at more than a double-digit price. Dave Gossett was around the 125/1126.00 mark.
Bryson DeChambeau was a 50/151.00 chance seven years ago and Spieth was 40/141.00 when he won his first PGA Tour title here 11 years ago.
This is a great place for up-and-coming players and five of the last 10 winners have been getting off the mark on the PGA Tour for the first time here. In addition to the top-class Scott Hoch, who really should have won the 1989 US Masters, major champions, David Toms, Payne Stewart, Jordan Spieth, and Bryson DeChambeau all won their first PGA Tour titles at the John Deere Classic.
Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four
2023 - Sepp Straka T14th - trailing by four 70.069/1
2022 - J.T Poston led by three 2.111/10
2021 - Lucas Glover T12th - trailing by four 50.049/1
2020 - Event Cancelled
2019 - Dylan Frittelli T5th - trailing by two 16.015/1
2018 - Michael Kim - led by five 1.422/5
2017 - Bryson DeChambeau 2nd - trailing by two 9.417/2
2016 - Ryan Moore - led by two 2.166/5
In-Play Tactics
Poston won wire-to-wire in 2022 and prior to 2021 we had to go all the way back to 1981 to find the last player to win the title from outside the top-10 after 54 holes. But that's all changed recently.
Glover caused a bit of a shock in 2021 when he won from tied 12th with a round to go and Straka was matched in-running at 1000.0999/1 after a dreadful start 12 months ago.
The Austrian sat tied for 133rd and 11 strokes off the lead after a two-over par 73 on Thursday and he was still seven back and tied for 27th after shooting 10 strokes less on Friday.
A 65 on Saturday saw him go into round four trailing by four in a tie for 14th and trading at 70.069/1 but after a late stumble by Brendon Todd, who was matched in-running at just 1.758/11, Straka's brilliant 62 on Sunday saw him win by two. And Straka wasn't the only recent winner to start slowly.
Although inside the top-10, Spieth was six back with 18 to play in 2013 but he birdied five of the last six to claim his first title and confounded the stats two years later too. He sat tied for 101st and eight adrift after round one but led by two after round three following a 64 in round two and a 61 in round three.
DeChambeau's finish in 2017 wasn't too dissimilar to Spieth's in 2013 as he birdied seven of the last 10 holes to take the title and in-running drama is quite often witnessed at Deere Run.
Market Leaders
Although he's only finished 26th and 47th in his first two visits to Deere Run, with form at the right correlating courses (two top-tens at Colonial and a fourth at Copperhead), and with current form reading 1-4-MC-9-8-MC-3, Sungjae Im is the understandable favourite.
The 26-year-old Korean tends to putt well more often than not, and he won the second of his two PGA Tour titles (the 2021 Shriners Children's Open) in 24-under-par so he's proved he can win a low scoring birdie-fest.
He won the Genesis Championship on the Korean Tour at the end of April but it's now nearly three years since he won on the PGA Tour and I'd have the defending champion, Sepp Straka, ahead of him in the market.
Straka has been in fine fettle ever since he finished 16th at the Players Championship and 16th in the US Masters, producing form figures since Augusta reading 5-11-8-MC-5-5-56-23.
He lost his way after a decent start at the US Open in his penultimate start and he started slowly at the Travelers Championship last time out but his 61 on Sunday was the best round of the day and he's the one to beat.
Aaron Rai putted brilliantly last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and his second-place finish there came after a solid run of form that produced figures reading 4-39-32-14-19 but he's playing here for the first and he looks very short given he's yet to win on the PGA Tour.
The two-time winner, Jordan Spieth, will have his supporters but he's on a poor run of form and he's another I'm happy to swerve.
I'll be back shortly with the Find Me a 100 Winner piece, which details two longshot fancies here, but other than that, I'm happy to leave the event alone before the off.