BMW International Open: Spaniard the value in Germany at 74/1

• Hot putter required in Munich

• Late drama expected again

• Read my John Deere Classic preview here

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Tournament History

A month after Laurie Canter finally got off the mark at the Porsche European Open, the DP World Tour returns to Germany this week for the 35^th edition of the BMW International Open.

Since 2011, and prior to the pandemic, the tournament alternated between two venues - the Golf Club Gut Lärchenhof and the Golfclub München Eichenried (the event's permanent home between 1997 to 2011). But this year we're returning to the Golfclub München Eichenried for the fifth renewal in-a-row.

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Venue

Golfclub München Eichenried, Munich, Germany

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Course Details

Par 72, 7,284 yards
Stroke index in 2023 - 72.54

Designed by Kurt Rossknecht and opened in 1989, Golfclub München Eichenried is a flat, tree-lined course with greens that usually run quite slowly. There are water hazards on 10 holes and scoring here is generally low - although as the course has matured and the trees have grown, it has lowered slightly.

A 20-under-par score wasn't enough in the early years but players would gladly take that now.

Li Haotong and Thomas Pieters played off for the title in 2022, after both men had posted -22, but that was the first time since 2009 that anyone went deeper than -19. Thriston Lawrence's winning score of 13-under-par last year was more in line with the usual winning total now that the course has matured.

The greens were formerly quite slow but they were changed form a Bentgrass/Poa Annua mix to pure Creeping Bentgrass before the 2019 edition.

Although a fairly easy track, the first three holes are tough, and they ranked as three of the four hardest holes on the layout last year. Combined the trio averaged 0.63 over-par so a slow start isn't unusual.

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Weather Forecast

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 11:30 on Thursday

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Last Eight Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

2023 - Thriston Lawrence -13 120.0119/1
2022 - Li Haotong -22 80.079/1 (playoff)
2021 - Viktor Hovland -19 8.88/1
2020 - Event Cancelled
2019 - Andrea Pavan -15 110.0109/1 (playoff)
2018 - Matt Wallace -10 44.043/1 (Golf Club Gut Lärchenhof)
2017 - Andres Romero -17 510.0509/1
2016 - Henrik Stenson -17 10.09/1 (Golf Club Gut Lärchenhof)

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What Will it Take to Win the BMW International Open?

The 2017 winner here, Argentina's Andres Romero, was a tournament invite and he wasn't a member of the DP World Tour, so no stats were produced for him but I've looked at the stats for the last nine course winners, not including Romero, and here are their average rankings for the nine.

Driving Distance 37.44
Driving Accuracy 29.67
Greens In Regulation 16.56
Putting Average 19.11
Scrambling 19.67

Hitting it a long way used to be the secret to success here before the course matured and the trees grew but length is much less relevant here now. I'd favour accuracy off the tee over power.

The last two course winners have ranked only 43^rd and 49^th for Driving Distance and David Horsey was able to win here ranking just 68^th for DD in 2010.

The last two victors ranked only 42^nd and 46^th for Driving Accuracy and neither driving metric appeared crucial. However, last year's runner-up, Joost Luiten, ranked second for D.A and Horsey ranked seventh for Driving Accuracy in 2010, with the runner-up that year, Ross Fisher, topping the DA stats.

In 2011, Pablo Larrazabal won the title for the first time, ranking second for DA, so there's evidence to suggest being straight off the tee is a plus. As the last two victors have demonstrated, though, keeping it straight off the tee hole-after-hole isn't imperative.

The first and second five years ago ranked second and first for Greens In Regulation, Els ranked first for GIR in 2013. Two years earlier, Larrazabal ranked second when he won, but he won the second of his two titles (eight years ago) ranking 32^nd for GIR so it's not a vital stat.

Lawrence only ranked 35^th last year but Luiten ranked fifth and Daniel Hillier, who topped the GIR Rankings, finished tied for third. Li ranked 14^th in 2023 and the 2022 winner, Viktor Hovland, ranked 10^th.

The 2009 winner, Nick Dougherty, ranked second for Putting Average and Larrazabal ranked 10^th a year later. Next time the event was staged here, in 2013, the second and third had PA rankings of second and fourth but the winner, Ernie Els, ranked 50^th and the next three winners (excluding Romero) ranked 27^th, 35^th and 38^th. But putting has been a key metric in the last three years, since the new greens have been established.

Lawrence ranked fourth for PA last year and the front three in the rankings all finished inside the top-seven and ties, the first four home two years ago ranked second, seventh, first and ninth for PA and the front three in 2021 ranked fourth, first and second.

Looking at the Strokes Gained data for the last four editions here (the only renewals with SG data), it's a bit of a mixed bag but Putting is again the key metric.

Andrea Pavan ranked seventh in 2021, with the player ranked number one for SG: Putting, Sebastian Soderberg, only tied for 14^th, but the top ranked player has finished inside the top four places in each of the last three renewals.

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Is There an Angle In?

Although he'd won the Joberg Open six months earlier, Lawrence went off at a big price last year because he arrived in Germany on the back of a poor run of form.

The South African had missed three of his previous four cuts and he'd recorded just one top-20 finish all year.

Li had inconsistent 2022 form figures reading 12-MC-32-3-33-MC-6-26-MC-37-18 before he won here two years ago and the last nine course winners have all been winning for the first time that year, so being out of form hasn't been a barrier to success. And the two course winners before Viktor Hovland in 2021 were woefully out of form.

Andrea Pavan's best finish in his 12 starts prior to his victory here in 2019 had yielded just one top-20 and he'd missed five cuts, and Romero's form in 2017 was appalling.

In five worldwide starts, 71 was the best round score he'd achieved, and he'd missed every cut. Those two both went off at huge prices this has been a reasonable event for longshots of late.

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Course form not as crucial as it once was

Thomas Bjorn and Pablo Larrazabal have both won here twice and Sergio Garcia traded odds-on before eventually finishing second in both 2011 and 2017. But recent history suggests course form or even course experience isn't essential.

Lawrence had finished 36^th on debut in 2022 before winning last year, Li had missed the cut on his only previous visit six years before he won (also missed the cut when defending last year). Like the 2010 winner, Horsey, Hovland was playing here for the first time when victorious in 2021. The 2019 winner, Andrea Pavan, had previous course form figures reading MC-MC-56.

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Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

2023 - Thriston Lawrence - T4th, trailing by three 12.011/1
2022 - Li Haotong - one stroke clear 4.03/1
2021 - Viktor Hovland - three strokes clear 1.292/7
2020 - Event Cancelled
2019 - Andrea Pavan - T8th, trailing by four 50.049/1
2018 - Staged at Golf Club Gut Lärchenhof
2017 - Andres Romero T4th, trailing by three 32.031/1
2016 - Staged at Golf Club Gut Lärchenhof
2015 - Pablo Larrazabal T5th, trailing by five 22.021/1

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In-Play Tactics

Li won wire-to wire two years ago (although it was far from straightforward) and Hovland was never far away in 2021. He sat tied for 18^th and four off the lead after round one, but he was up to second at halfway and clear with a round to go.

In 2019, Pavan led after round one, before falling off the pace and rallying on Sunday, while Ernie Els won wire-to-wire in 2013, but a fast start isn't imperative.

Back in 2006, Henrik Stenson beat Padraig Harrington and Retief Goosen in a playoff after the three had started the event with rounds of only 71, 70 and 73 respectively. Except for Li, Ernie and Pavan, the closest to the front any winner has been after round one in the last 13 events here is tied sixth (Niclas Fasth in 2007 and Romero six years ago).

Lawrence sat tied for 47^th after round one last year and the losing playoff protagonist in 2022, Thomas Pieters, started slowly too. He sat tied 29^th - trailing by seven.

Matt Fitzpatrick was beaten in the playoff in 2019, having sat tied for 85^th after round one, so a slow start can definitely be overcome. Despite Li's wire-to-wire two years ago, this is not an easy place to front run.

Last year's 54-hole leader, Joost Luiten, who was a 1.75/7 chance when he led by three, hit a low of 1.42/5 in-running. Pieters was matched for plenty at odds-on before losing the playoff in 2023 and, even though he won comfortably in the end, it wasn't plain sailing for Hovland in 2022.

Having drifted to 1.910/11 in-running on Sunday, Hovland was fortunate that none of his closest pursuers played well and his two-under-par 70 was easily enough to win.

Plenty of players have traded at a short price before flaking late on and in 2019 we saw four men trade at short odds without winning.

Martin Kaymer was matched at a low of 2.3211/8, Matt Wallace 2.01/1, Matthias Schwab 1.784/5 and the beaten playoff protagonist, Fitzpatrick, hit a low of 1.21/5!

It's hard to convert from the front here and we've seen winners come from as far as five strokes back but since 1997, no course winner had been outside the top eight places with a round to go.

Romero, who trailed by three in fourth place five years ago, was a 32.031/1 chance with a round to go but after starting the final round with seven straight pars, he was matched at a high of 190.0189/1. He finished the event with seven birdies in his last 11 holes so late drama here is not just a possibility but a regular occurrence.

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Market Leaders

After a reasonable couple of months on the PGA Tour, where his highlights have included a fourth-place finish at the Myrtle Beach Classic and a seventh at the Canadian Open, where he traded at odds-on during round three, Ryan Fox returns to the DP World Tour and he's the man to beat according to the market.

The 37-year-old is in search of his fifth DP World Tour title and his fourth in just over two years. He has course form figures reading 26-14-3 so he's a very worthy favourite.

After that we have a trio of LIV golfers filling the second third and fourth positions in the market - Patrick Reed, Thomas Pieters and Bernd Wiesberger.

I'm really not interested in the ins and outs of how they're in the field as the whole thing bores me to tears but none of the three make much appeal.

Pieters, who was beaten here in a playoff here two years ago, also finished second at the Soudal Open in his native Belgium in-between LIV events. He's an excellent putter but he's not the easiest to get across the line.

Reed is playing here for the first time and he didn't really catch the eye last week in Italy when finishing 29^th, whereas Wiesberger, whose last appearance on the LIV Tour was way back in October last year, has a wealth of course experience to draw upon.

The Dane has figures here reading 51-43-4-27-20-16-5-61 and he has DP World Tour form figures reading 23-24-2-7-42 since May.

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Selection

The recent China Open winner, Adrian Otaegui, was a disappointment on Sunday in Italy, having sat just one off the lead with a round to go but he's drifted out to a very appealing price again here.

Conditions were really tricky on Sunday, and very different to those experienced over the first few days, and he was far from the only player to go backwards in round four.

He's clearly in good form and I was very happy to chance him at 75.074/1.

I'll have at least one more selection in the event later on today with the Find Me a 100 Winner column.

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Read my John Deere Classic preview here

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*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter