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20/121.00 Davis Thompson has the form and stats to get his first win
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40/141.00 Sam Stevens is in form and riding a hot putter
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100/1101.00 Chandler Phillips has strong form at correlating courses
It used to confuse punters why some Claret Jug hopefuls would tee it up in the John Deere Classic in Illinois a week before heading across the Atlantic to contest the Open Championship.
TPC Deere Run is nothing like a links course. The two tests seemed like chalk and cheese.
Except that Zach Johnson took glory at St Andrews in 2015 a week on from finishing third at the John Deere. And three years later, Francesco Molinari followed a second place at TPC Deere Run by winning the Open at Carnoustie.
That can't happen now as the JDC has been played two weeks before the Open for the last three years in order to make the Scottish Open the warm-up for the year's final Major.
But the slightly bizarre link between the John Deere and the Open continued last year as Brian Harman took the Claret Jug. Scroll back and you'll find Harman's name on the John Deere Trophy too. Jordan Spieth also has been engraved on both.
Harman and Spieth have great short games which is one clue as getting up and down at TPC Deere Run is important. The 2022 JDC winner, J.T. Poston, ranked first for SG: Around The Greens when taking the title while 2019 champion Dylan Fritelli was second for ATG.
Putting is key too. Sepp Straka was fourth for SG: Putting when winning last year while the 2015 to 2019 champions ranked seveth, eighth, second, first and second for SGP. There was no tournament in 2020, by the way.
A more logical correlation can be found with form at Colonial and the Copperhead.
As Steve Rawlings notes, Steve Stricker, Zach Johnson, Kenny Perry, and Jordan Spieth have won both this and the Charles Schwab while John Deere winners Spieth, John Senden, Sean O'Hair and Vijay Singh have their names on the Valspar trophy.
Jordan Spieth, Sungjae Im and Sepp Straka head the betting this week at odds of 14/115.00, 14/115.00 and 16/117.00.
They're then followed by three players yet to win on the PGA Tour: Aaron Rai at 18s along with Denny McCarthy and Maverick McNealy at 20/121.00.
The first trio appeal more but the one I like best from the top 10 in the betting is Davis Thompson, also now cut to 20/121.00.
True, he hasn't won either but he's the man in form and with surely the highest ceiling.
Thompson really caught the eye at the start of 2023 when finishing runner-up to Jon Rahm at The American Express.
He didn't really kick on that season but the pedigree was clearly there and this former high-class amateur has really hit his straps in the last couple of months.
Thompson has added two more second places in his last six starts, those near-misses coming at the Myrtle Beach Classic (-16) and last week's Rocket Mortgage Classic (-17) - two other low-scoring events.
Between the two he really showed his class by finishing ninth in the US Open while 17th at Colonial and 27th at Memorial add to his excellent bank of current form.
The University of Georgia grad is 13th Around The Green this season and, most impressive of all, 15th for Strokes Gained: Total.
He's gained strokes with the putter in his last two starts and was second for Putting Average in Detroit last week.
Add in 24th for Par Breakers and he's ready to build upon his promising debut 31st-place finish in last year's John Deere.
The 25-year-old's only other start in Illinois by the way was a fifth in the Korn Ferry's NV5 Invitational in 2022 when he carded a brilliant Saturday 62.
This has been a good tournament for future stars - Spieth won it as a 19-year-old while Bryson DeChambeau was outside the world top 100 when taking the title - so Thompson fits the bill nicely.
Back Davis Thompson each-way @
I'll side with another in-form player with oodles of potential in Sam Stevens.
Without getting too much attention, the Texan has reeled off four top 15s in his last five starts.
One was a second place at the Korn Ferry's Wichita Open and he's added 10th places in the PGA Tour's Myrtle Beach Classic and last week's Rocket Mortgage Classic.
Stevens ranked 15th and fifth respectively for Strokes Gained: Putting in those two top 10s while he was ninth for Putting Average in the Wichita Open. In short, his blade is hot.
There aren't many in the field who sit in the top 40 in those desired categories of SG: Putting and Around The Green but Stevens is one of them. He's also 24th Off The Tee.
He didn't make the cut on his John Deere bow last year due to an opening 73 but he walked away with a Friday 67 under his belt and two other visits to Illinois have brought ninth and 18th in Korn Ferry tournaments.
Stevens has always considered himself a good striker of the ball, who perhaps just needed to work on his chipping and putting.
He's done that and is seeing the results. Time now to get that first win.
Back Sam Stevens each-way @
I'll round off with another 20-something Texan and back Chandler Phillips at a three-figure price.
If form at the Valspar Championship and Charles Schwab Challenge holds up here, that bodes really well for the 2023 Korn Ferry grad.
Phillips caused some stir with his third place in the Valspar (seventh for SG: Putting) and has made an impression again recently with 12th at Colonial and 10th in the Canadian Open where he closed with a 64.
He gained strokes with the putter for the third tournament running when making the Rocket Mortgage cut and is 47th for SGP on the season-long stats. Phillips is a fine iron player too.
Birdie-fests are often about setting up the most possible chances and Phillips is 27th for Strokes Gained: Approach, ranking sixth in that category in Canada.
Just a note on Bentgrass too. In the last 10 events he's played with Bent in the mix, Phillips has six top 12 finishes, the latest two Colonial and Canada.
The other one I considered at 100/1101.00 was Mac Meissner.
The 25-year-old was fifth at Colonial, 26th at the Valspar and has a sharp short game (22nd Around The Green).
He also won a Korn Ferry event in Illinois in 2021 so is an interesting proposition on his John Deere debut.
Back Chandler Phillips each-way @
Read Steve Rawlings' John Deere Classic preview here