France v England Tip - Back the French and goals
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Saturday, 22:00
Live on BBC1
The third/fourth play-off. Or what FIFA are now calling the 'Bronze Final'. The game no one wants to play according to England manager Thomas Tuchel.
After the heartbreak of losing a World Cup semi-final, nobody wants to have to go and play another game after a gruelling season and the mental exhaustion from being so close yet so far. As a result, these games are a difficult betting heat and it's definitely sensible to check you're still happy with your bets once the lineups come out 90 minutes before kick-off.
Even then there is no guarantee of motivation for players who may want to be anywhere else but a football pitch.
Mbappe has Golden Boot motivation
Often teams who expected to reach the final will rotate some of their superstars and first choice players to allow others who have had little or no minutes the opportunity to play at a World Cup.
For example, French captain Michel Platini played in neither of the 1986 or 1982 third place matches. If Kylian Mbappe starts here, he should see this a great chance to win the Golden Boot. Both Davor Suker in 1998 and Toto Schillaci in 1990 scored in the bronze match to be the sole top goalscorer leader.
Another factor is giving departing players/managers one last time in the spotlight. After 14 years, this will be Didier Deschamps' last match in-charge and one would assume he would like to go out on a high. And his World Cup record speaks for itself having won 20 of his 26 matches 90 (77%).
France favourites and goals likely
France are 10/111.91 favourites which looks a little short on first glance considering this is third versus fourth in the FIFA world rankings. However, England have lost eight of their last 10 matches at the World Cup against top 10-ranked sides, winning just once - 24 years ago.
They also have a poor record against France, having lost six of the last nine meetings, winning just once. The last meeting at the previous World Cup resulted in France coming out 2-1 winners in the quarter-finals.
Goals-wise this match normally delivers and that's reflected in the odds with Over 2.5 goals just 2/51.40. Eleven of the last 12 Bronze matches have seen three or more goals with a total of 46 goals at an average of 3.83 per-game. This also fits Dechamps World Cup record with his 26 matches in charge yielding 83 goals at an average of 3.19 per-game.
With France and goals too short to back as singles but seemingly the most likely direction the match will go in, combining them at 7/52.40 looks a good way to play this. All six of France's victories in the USA have been by two or more goals.
Back France to win and Over 2.5 goals
Stinch's Acca - Back a France v England treble at 16/54.20
With Betfair's Bet £10 Get £10 on ACCAs or bet builders at the World Cup it's worth looking at some of the player markets and it makes sense to try and get Mbappe onside.
He's got eight goals and three assists in just seven games and as already mentioned is aiming for top goalscorer with him currently tied level with Lionel Messi on eight.
He's averaging 4.7 shots per-game and 2.3 key passes per-game (a pass leading to a shot) so is a huge threat. He's only 4/61.67 to score anytime so backing him to score or assist at 4/91.44 looks worthy of adding to a bet builder.
Jude Bellingham has hit the headlines for his goalscoring prowess but he's a targeted man by the opposition with only Belgium's Jeremy Doku being fouled more than him this tournament.
In his seven appearances, Bellingham has been fouled 2.3 times per-game and at 8/131.61 to be fouled two or more times looks another nice one to add to a bet builder. His likely direct opponents, in France's Adrien Rabiot and Aurélien Tchouaméni have been making 2.8 fouls per-game combined at the base of their midfield, with understudy Manu Kone averaging 1.2 per-game himself.
Back France and Over 2.5 goals, Kylian Mbappe To Score Or Assist and Jude Bellingham To Be Fouled 2 Or More Times