Friday's World Cup Qualifier Tips: Cash in on 5/1 Kimmich & a draw will do for the Dutch

Paul Higham has Betfair's bets bets for Friday's World Cup qualifiers in Europe

Paul Higham's best bets for Friday's World Cup qualifiers include a [5/1] player prop bet for Germany's trip to Luxembourg, and why a Dutch draw in Poland is worth backing.


Finland v Malta

17:00 kick-off

Finland need a miracle to grab a play-off spot, with a big win over Malta needed along with a heavy defeat for Poland against the Netherlands - that's the easy part, as then Malta would have to turn Poland over on Monday and still it would depend on goal difference.

So it's more a case of signing off from a promising campaign that's fallen away recently with a commanding win as 1/51.20 favourites to give the Helsinki faithful something to shout about in Teemu Pukki's final competitive international. Pukki is just 4/61.67 to score anytime but preference is for the handicap victory.


Luxembourg v Germany

19:45 kick-off
Live on Amazon Prime PPV

Germany have recovered from that shock opening defeat in Slovakia with three straight wins putting them top of the group on goal difference, after Northern Ireland did them a favour. There's still work to do with Slovakia up last, but at 1/181.06 in Luxembourg this half of the bargain shouldn't be much more than a warm-up.

The question is does Julian Nagelsmann send his side out to make a statement or just secure the points, knowing that with just one goal scored so far Luxembourg won't pose too much of a threat, so something like a 3-0 lead could signal changes being made ahead of that Slovakia showdown.

German could easily hammer in a few though, so let's swerve those markets and go for a standout player prop here on skipper Joshua Kimmich - who will play at right-back again but that didn't stop him from scoring twice against Luxembourg in the first meeting from four shots on target.

He'll be raiding down that right wing again and after 31 shots for Germany in the first fixture there'll be plenty to go around again here.


Poland v Netherlands

19:45 kick-off
Live on Amazon Prime PPV

A big game this in Warsaw with 4/15.00 Poland needing the win to draw level on points with the Dutch at the top of the group - but just one defeat in 90 minutes in 14 games shows why the Netherlands are 8/131.61 to win here and book their World Cup spot.

The Poles earned a late draw in the reverse fixture but they're 31/104.10 this time and haven't beaten the Dutch in 14 attempts - there have been six draws though and that would likely do for the Oranje unless something crazy happens in the final group games against minnows Malta (Netherlands) and Lithuania (Netherlands).


Slovakia v Northern Ireland

19:45 kick-off
Live on BBC Two Northern Ireland, BBC Three & BBCi

A Northern Ireland win would blow this group wide open as they'd join Slovakia on nine points and just three behind Germany - who play each other in the final game while the Irish host Luxembourg. They're 10/34.33 but Michael O'Neill's men did win the reverse fixture at Windsor Park so it's a result well within their grasp.

Slovakia as 1/12.00 favourites will be looking for three points and ideally a few goals to even things up for their showdown with the Germans on Monday - and their home form suggests they should have enough. They've kept clean sheets in four home games on the spin, and their games are usually tight affairs - if they get another one here they're better equipped to see it through.


Croatia v Faroe Islands

19:45 kick-off

The Faroe Islands have been a revelation here, winning four games from seven including a huge upset over Czech Republic last time out. Away at Croatia as 40/141.00 outsiders isn't the kind of game they can win, but they may put up a stronger fight than you'd expect for the 1/121.08 favourites.

Croatia only won the reverse fixture 1-0 and the Faroes haven't been beaten by more than a goal in any of their last seven defeats, so maybe temper expectations here - the hosts are pragmatic and know even a draw is enough to claim a World Cup spot, and they're not the type of side that does more than they have to.

It's a tough game for betting here but Croatia have been ahead at half-time in five of their six games so far, and if that happens again I can see them coasting to the line, so what goal action there is is more likely in the opening 45.


Gibraltar v Montenegro

19:45 kick-off

Not exactly the pick of the games tonight, with Montenegro just playing for a bit of pride after a turgid campaign, which has seen them lose all three aways so far without scoring - including a 4-0 hammering in the Faroes! They're still 1/61.17 against Gibraltar - who also haven't yet managed a goal at home...

So either Montenegro get their first away goal in two years or Gibraltar get their first ever point on the board in major tournament qualifying after losing all 52 previous games, so something's got to give. 

Most likely is an away win, but as with the first fixture Gibraltar could still well be in the game at half-time.


Read the latest exclusive column from Betfair's Alan Shearer


Recommended bets

Back the draw in Poland v Netherlands @ 31/104.10

Back Joshua Kimmich 2+ shots on target @ 5/16.00

Back Back Slovakia win & under 2.5 goals @ 13/53.60

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