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England have won their last two matches by a combined 8-0
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But Latvia's low block suggests routine rather than eyecatching away win
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England have kept eight clean sheets in their last nine matches
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Latvia v England
Tuesday 14 October, 19:45
Live on ITV 1, ITVX & STV
Tuchel taking his own path
After a rather underwhelming start to his tenure, Thomas Tuchel has got England motoring. The turning point was a 5-0 away rout in Serbia and they followed that by blowing away Wales in the first 20 minutes at Wembley last Thursday.
With Harry Kane sidelined, England burst into a 3-0 lead via goals from Morgan Rogers, Ollie Watkins and Bukayo Sako. Understandably, that friendly rather petered out after the break with the Three Lions easing back and making substitutions.
Tuchel had only praise for his team, instead deciding to turn his ire on the Wembley crowd for being too quiet! While that can be seen as something and nothing, it's another example of Tuchel being unafraid to ruffle feathers.
The main ruffling, of course, was his decision to stick to the squad that beat Andorra and Serbia - and that meant leaving out Jude Bellingham and a string of other top names. Harmony in the camp means everything to Tuchel and, for now at least, he's going to reward those who are bringing it rather than pander to egos or players who the press think he should pick.
Latvia way down world rankings
While England have a maximum 15 points out of 15 from their five qualifiers, Latvia are toiling.
To give context, they're only one place above the Faroe Islands in the FIFA World Rankings. Then again, the Faroes beat Montenegro 4-0 on Thursday night and the Czechs 2-0 at the weekend so perhaps that's not the best example to pluck out.
But beyond a win over Andorra in their opening fixture, Latvia have struggled, losing three and drawing two of their other five group games so far. The latest draw came at the weekened when they could only manage a 2-2 stalemate with Andorra, a result which gave the visitors their only point so far.
Latvia's low block gives punters a poser
After two hugely impressive wins over Serbia and Wales and confidence in the camp high, it's very easy to make a case for England racking up another big win. In addition, they've had two extra days to prepare given that Latvia played Andorra on Saturday.
But perhaps the odds offer a dose of realism as 3-0 at 9/25.50 is the shortest quoted scoreline for Tuesday's encounter. If it landed that would be a repeat of March's game between the pair at Wembley when goals from Reece James (38), Kane (68) and Eberechi Eze (76) secured victory.
The Guardian's player ratings from that match make interesting reading given Bellingham's exclusion from this squad. John Brewin gave the Real Madrid midfielder a '5', the lowest for any England player, and wrote: "Showy, with flicks that entertained the crowd but lacked any real incision. Booked for a silly challenge, lucky not to see red for similar."
The other obvious takeaway from that game is how Latvia parked the bus and kept the score to 1-0 for 68 minutes, only conceding a brilliant free-kick to James on 38. And it's those struggles to break a low block - a common problem for the bigger teams - that suggest this may not be the high-scoring cakewalk that many predict.
In short, it would come as no surprise if England have to rather huff and puff and come away with a routine 2-0 win. That scoreline is 5/16.00 and certainly has merit.
England target another clean sheet
In the match market, England are a prohibitive 1/251.04, with Latvia a massive 35/136.00 and The Draw 16/117.00.
Latvia have lost their last 14 matches against sides in the top 10 of the FIFA World Rankings (England are fourth) by an aggregate score of 41-1 which helps frame where we are here.
With eight clean sheets in their last nine matches, England to win to nil is another obvious thought. Both teams to Score 'No' at 2/51.40 seems pretty fair and could be used as part of a Bet Builder.
As for anytime goalscorer opportunities, the fact that Watkins is 2/51.40 and central defender Marc Guehi just 3/14.00 shows us that no risks are being taken.
The one that offers a little more juice is Declan Rice at 13/53.60. The midfielder has three goals in his last 11 for England and will have licence to get forward and perhaps ping in a shot from long range.
Routine win looks the way in
Overall, I'm drawn to the idea of this being a fairly forgettable fixture and one that England just need to get through. Other results in the group at the weekend mean a win will book their spot in the finals next summer so that adds to the idea of England's players being professional and getting it done without great fanfare.
The nullifying effect of a low block combined with England's ability to reel off clean sheets leads me to the Correct Score Combinations market where England to win 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0 is 6/42.50.
That seems very much in the sweet spot and, although they've played plenty of average teams, Latvia don't concede in bunches. In fact, they've only shipped more than three in a game just once in their last 19 internationals.
Back England to win 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0