Italy vs Northern Ireland: Don't expect the Azzurri to run riot in Bergamo

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Thursday 26th March, 19:45
Live on BBC Three and BBC iPlayer 

Pressure could weigh heavily on Italy's shoulders

Italy's absence from the last two World Cups has been one of the notable stories in international football, and once again, the Azzurri must navigate the play-offs to secure their place in this summer's tournament, which will begin on June 11th. Gennaro Gattuso has acknowledged the pressure that comes with attempting to end this unwelcome hoodoo, admitting that he is focusing on creating a relaxed environment for his players, not requiring them to watch any replays of previous performances or think too much about what is at stake. 

Whilst the Azzuri have a different manager, and many members of the current squad were not involved in their nation's defeat to North Macedonia four years ago, the fans and media will be expecting them to get the job done on Thursday evening and set up a tie with either Wales or Bosnia and Herzegovina. 

At 1/41.25 in the match odds market, Italy will be expected to breeze past Northern Ireland, but the sheer weight of expectation may result in a sluggish start. Gattuso has insisted that there will be 'no excuses' and, having outshot North Macedonia 32-4 in a 1-0 defeat in 2022, he has also asked his players to concentrate on being 'clinical' this time around. 

Michael O'Neill has added to the narrative by suggesting that 'Italy have everything to lose' and that NI will use that pressure to their advantage on Thursday evening. 

The game has intentionally been moved to the New Balance Arena in Bergamo, due to the hosts' strong recent record at this venue. Gattuso also suggested that the smaller capacity will reduce the potential for mass booing or whistling if his side happen to make a slow start to this contest. 

Northern Ireland to keep Italy at arm's length 

Michael O'Neill, who has also been managing relegation-threatened Blackburn in the Championship over the last couple of months, is perfectly aware of his team's limitations, but he is able to organise his players and make it tough for opponents. Across their last four qualifiers, they conceded just twice, denying Slovakia until stoppage time, and preventing Germany from adding to their one goal advantage. 

They have been notoriously tricky opponents for Italy previously, and this high-stakes contest is likely to result in a tight and edgy affair. With the crushing loss to North Macedonia still imprinted in the minds of many Italian football fans, being drawn against a team who are effective at 'parking the bus' is arguably the worst possible outcome for the hosts. 

Nevertheless, Italy were fairly impressive throughout the qualifying process, although two hiccups against Norway pushed them into the play-offs, denying them an opportunity to book their place at the 48-team tournament. In the three homes that they were expected to win, vs Isreal, Estonia and Moldova, they failed to make the breakthrough until at least the 40th minute, and it took until the 58th to break Estonia's resistance. 

Squad depth to decide this tie 

As you'd expect at this stage of the season, both squads have been hit by injuries. NI will have to make do without Conor Bradley and the recent injury to Dan Ballard is a sizeable blow for Michael O'Neill's men. 

Liverpool's Federico Chiesa has been sent home after failing to pass a fitness test, and there are serious questions about Sandro Tonali who missed Sunday's Tyne-Wear derby with a knock. At the back, Alessandro Bastoni is also a doubt, and Riccardo Calafiori is also struggling following his appearance in the EFL Cup final at the weekend. 

Whilst Michael O'Neill has been forced to call up Blackburn's Tom Atcheson, who has made just four appearance in the second tier this season, Gattuso has added Bologna's Nicolo Cambiaghi, who has netted four times in 34 appearances across both Serie A and the Europa League. 

The Azzuri are likely to opt for the tried and tested combo of Moises Kean and Mateo Retegui, although Pio Esposito's emergence gives them yet another attacking option from the bench. The Inter youngster, who has been linked with Manchester United and Arsenal, netted in the final two qualifiers and in his previous two Serie A outings. He could be the difference-maker in the second half of this contest. 

Italy to overcome their nerves in the second half 

It's 3/14.00 for Draw/Italy on Thursday night, a hugely tempting price with NI expected to frustrate the hosts for large periods of this game. Gattuso's side should eventually make the breakthrough, which will calm the nerves of the home supporters in Bergamo. 

The absence of Bradley and Ballard will certainly make O'Neill's men a little more vulnerable and the difference in quality should eventually tell. They don't have a good record in Italy, losing 2-0 on their previous visit, and the hosts should have enough quality to progress, despite some key absentees, including Gianluca Scamacca. Very few of the 2022 play-off games were end-to-end and with so much at stake, particularly for the hosts, this is unlikely to be a high-scoring 90 minutes. 

Nevertheless, 80% of the goals in their home 2026 World Cup qualifiers came in the second half, with this number dropping to 70% across their eight qualifying games home and away. When you take those numbers into consideration, odds of 11/102.11 for the second half to be the highest scoring half is excellent value. 

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Click here to read our World Cup Play-offs Explainer, including fixtures and odds for each nation to win their Path.