Argentina v Brazil: Back a narrow win for hosts and 10/1 Alvarez OddsBoost

• Back Julian Alvarez in 10/111.00 OddsBoost special

• Plenty of cards usually on show - back 8+ at 7/52.40 as the pick

• Back Argentina to edge another cagey classic at 11/43.75

Argentina v Brazil
Wednesday 26 March 00:00 kick-off
Live on Premier Sports 1

One of the biggest games in international football takes place in Buenos Aires at midnight UK time as old foes Argentina and Brazil lock horns again in World Cup qualifying.

Argentina have already qualified for next year's World Cup in North America and Brazil will join them at some point as they're not sitting in third, seven points behind their rivals but still a huge improvement after a woeful start to the campaign that saw them lose four of the first six games.

Some sort of result from their toughest test in qualifying would be another big step in the right direction for this improving Brazil side, which beat Colombia in their last game via a 99th-minute winner.

Argentina favourites to beat Brazil

Argentina are 13/102.30 favourites and have some fearsome home form on their side, while Brazil are 5/23.50 for what would be a massive win - and the draw, which will be popular, is priced up at 9/52.80.

This Brazil resurgence will be up against it at the Estadio Monumental though, as Vinicius Jr, Raphinha and company take on a defence that's kept nine clean sheets in their last 10 home games and 11 in 12 home World Cup qualifiers.

And in this campaign the world champions have seven wins to nil in eight home qualifiers, while Brazil have won just once in five away qualifiers. So you have to fancy the hosts again in a game that suggests goals will be at a premium.

Both teams to score has only landed once in the last eight head-to-heads, meaning it's 6/101.60 for 'No' to hit yet again, while under 2.5 goals is just 2/51.40 having landed in the last seven meetings.

Argentina have won three of the last four meetings 1-0 and this looks like something similar with the hosts' defence as tough as they come but, without Lionel Messi, Lautaro Martinez and Paulo Dybala in attack, they're not flush with goals. 

No Alisson Becker is a huge miss in goal for Brazil though, and with Gabriel and Bruno Guimaraes both suspended that's a hole in the spine of the team that could well cost them.

Back cards and Alvarez OddsBoost

It's not a huge price for so many cards but the conditions look perfect for a bumper haul of bookings here given the situation - with Brazil especially vulnerable as they're still on slightly shaky ground in the qualifying group.

You know exactly what you're going to get from Argentina at home, the dark arts playbook will be wide open and, having already qualified, the air of arrogance will be on full display. That will provoke plenty of reactions from the visitors.

You'd expect Brazil to have more cards but these South American clashes can get out of hand in a hurry so we'll take the 7/52.40 on 8+ cards. It has only landed in one of six meetings but there have been three games of seven cards.

The game state here should take us over the hump.

Without Lionel Messi, Julian Alvarez could carry the Argentina threat - and he's second to the great man in terms of shots on target in this qualifying campaign.

He's also been heavily involved for Atletico Madrid of late and, with the like of Dybala and Martinez missing, there's even more reason to stay on the former Man City man's case.

The OddsBoost on the Sportsbook caught my eye in that regard. We'll back Alvarez to have 2+ shots on target and concede 2+ fouls at 10/111.00.

He's only had 2+ shots on target in one game this qualifying campaign, but the big-name absentees mean he'll have more room to shine, and fouls aren't usually a problem for him with 2+ given away in his last two internationals and three of five.

Alvarez also gave two away in the last game against Brazil so that should be the easy part of his intriguing double.

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