Euro 2025 Day 10 Tipsheet: Spain star to score & Portugal to fall short

• Portugal can qualify with big goal swing

• Odds underestimate Belgian quality

• Gonzalez a value goalscoring option at odds-against

Portugal v Belgium

Friday 11 July, 20:00
Live on BBC iPlayer

While Belgium are already out of Euro 2025, Portugal's battling draw with Italy has given them a glimmer of hope. If they win this game and Italy lose, then goal difference comes into play, but it would need a big Portuguese win and a heavy Italian defeat.

As we know, markets are often influenced by motivation, but Portugal's price of 1.8810/11 to win the game feels like a massive over-reaction, and Francisco Neto's side are there to be attacked. They were demolished 5-0 by Spain, and needed a late (albeit deserved) equalizer against Italy.

If you go back further, Portugal have won just one of their last nine internationals. Yes, that was against Friday night's opponents Belgium, but Belgium then won the reverse fixture 3-0 in Maritimo, with the prolific Tessa Wullaert scoring twice.

Belgium were edged out 1-0 by Italy and lost 6-2 to Spain, and haven't played as badly as results suggest. They showed character to twice come from behind against world champions Spain, only for the tournament favourites to shred them in the closing stages. Frankly, Spain can do that to most teams.

Belgium have picked up a group-stage win in each of the last two Euros, and I can't have them as such big outsiders here. In Wullaert, they have a striker with 93 international goals, and the side is sprinkled with plenty of WSL experience. It's worth remembering that Belgium beat England in a competitive match as recently as April.

I'll lay Portugal at 1.8810/11.

Spain v Italy

Friday 11 July, 20:00
Live on BBC One

Our tournament tip Spain have started like they mean to go on, thrashing Portugal 5-0 and Belgium 6-2. What's really stood out about Montse Tome's team is how many different threats they pose.

Esther Gonzalez has rattled in three goals and has excelled at centre-forward, but behind her Alexia Putellas, Mariona Caldentey and young Vicky Lopez have all shone. Claudia Pina scored a cracker against Belgium and has fired in some wicked deliveries from set plays, and Spain haven't really had to put pressure on midfield strategist Aitana Bonmati, who is recovering from viral meningitis. The Barcelona star got a few minutes against Portugal, and was a half-time sub against Belgium, so she may get a start here.

Spain can't afford to ease off here, as defeat would see them lose top spot in the group, and that's probably bad news for an Italy side that needs a point to make absolutely sure of qualification ahead of Portugal. Andrea Soncin's team faded badly in the closing stages against Portugal in their last match, as the Azzurre failed to make the most of Cristiana Girelli's stunning goal.

I'll back Esther Gonzalez to score here at a generous 11/102.11. The Gotham FC striker has netted in both games so far at Euro 2025, and she scored ten goals in 13 games in the NWSL. Gonzalez' record of 28 goals in 36 caps is excellent, not least because she only started 24 of those matches. Across those 24 starts for her country, she has 25 goals.

Now read the rest of our Euro 2025 coverage here!