Spain v Italy Nations League Tips: Back Azzurri to grind a way to win

• Spain well beaten by Scotland last time out

• Italy edged out Spain at EURO 2020

• Azzurri are value bet to reach final at odds-against

Spain v Italy
Thursday 15 June, 19:45
Live on Viaplay

Spain's new era already in choppy waters

It was always going to be tough to replace a forceful and magnetic personality like Luis Enrique, but even so Spain's decision to look inwards and promote youth boss Luis de la Fuente raised eyebrows.

There's no doubt that the 61-year-old knows many of the players well from his work with the Under-21 and Olympic teams, but as a senior coach he has had a couple of gigs in the lower leagues and lasted just a few months at Alaves.

De la Fuente's opening couple of games were a mixed bag. A 3-0 win over Norway in the Euro 2024 qualifiers was a great start, but then Spain melted in the heat of the Hampden Park cauldron, and Scotland outfought and outthought them in a 2-0 victory.

There is no doubting Spain's quality, but turning that into tournament success has eluded them. They were probably the better team against Italy in the Euro 2020 semi-finals, but ultimately lost on penalties.

In the 2021 Nations League they lost the final to France, and at the World Cup in Qatar La Roja dominated possession against Morocco but again crashed out on penalties.

It is Spain's failure to turn possession into goals that remains a concern, and this Nations League semi-final is another test for them. While it's tempting to dismiss such a new tournament after the longest of seasons, this is a valuable chance for de la Fuente to show he and his players can perform under pressure and find ways to win.

However, de la Fuente is without some key players. Barcelona star Pedri is injured, while Sergio Busquets has retired from international football after a long and distinguished career.

Dani Olmo is struggling with injury, as worryingly tends to often be the case for the Leipzig attacker. PSG left-back Juan Bernat is injured, and has been replaced by Fran Garcia.

Man City's Rodri has reported for duty, but after a draining Champions League final (and some draining celebrations, no doubt) it's not clear what condition he'll be in.

Mancini looking to rebuild in tenure of extremes

When Roberto Mancini was given the Italy job, his task was to rebuild the side after his predecessor Gian Piero Ventura suffered the ignominy of becoming the first coach of the Azzurri for 60 years to fail to qualify for a World Cup.

Former Manchester City and Inter boss Mancini crafted a well-drilled and effective side that ground its way to winning Euro 2020 with penalty shoot-out victories in the semi-finals and final.

However, the heroes became zeroes and Ventura's nightmare became Mancini's when Italy clumsily failed to top their qualifying group on the road to the Qatar World Cup, and lost a play-off at home to North Macedonia.

Mancini has managed to hold onto power, but a recent Euro 2024 qualifying defeat at home to England did him few favours. Losing this Nations League semi-final to France would make those murmurs about his future become shouts.

Where there is danger, there is also opportunity, and winning this tournament would strengthen Mancini's position.

The return to full fitness of Juventus star Federico Chiesa is a major boost, but Domenico Berardi and Matteo Pessina are expected to miss out because of injury.

Argentina-born striker Mateo Retegui has scored in both of his international appearances, and could start again here despite competition from Lazio veteran Ciro Immobile.

Italy can find a way to the final

Mancini has shown he can grind out results against quality opposition with Italy, and in a neutral venue in the Netherlands I don't understand why Spain are the 2.47/5 favourites here to win inside 90 minutes.

Yes, they beat Italy a couple of years ago in the Nations League semis, but this is a very different situation. Spain are still adjusting to a new coach and, as mentioned, de la Fuente's tenure has gotten off to a shaky start.

We can back Italy to qualify for the final at 2.285/4, and given that there's not much to choose between the sides, I think that's the value play here.

Fouls the key to Bet Builder

Although Spain will dominate possession, I'll pick out a couple of Spanish players to commit fouls as part of a Bet Builder.

Dani Carvajal should start at right-back and will likely be up against the tricky Chiesa. Carvajal is no stranger to the dark arts, and I'd expect him to commit a foul at some stage, especially if he tires.

Barcelona tyro Gavi committed the third-most fouls in La Liga this season, being whistled 74 times, so I'll back him to commit at least two.

I'll also back Under 3.5 Goals, as none of their last eight meetings featured more than three goals, and I expect this to be cagey and a little sluggish. That gives you a combined price of 3.0451/25.