Poland v Scotland: Relegation scrap can be a lot of fun

• Winners will avoid automatic relegation, but draw also saves Poland

• Poland leaking goals

• McTominay worth persevering with

• It's Safer Gambling Week - explore all the tools available to Betfair customers here

Poland v Scotland
Monday 18 November, 19:45
Live on Viaplay YouTube

Poland reeling after Porto pummelling

Poland coach Michal Probierz said he'd never experienced a match like the 5-1 thrashing against Portugal on Friday, bemoaning the fact that everything that could have gone wrong did go wrong. Not only did the Poles have to make do without star striker Robert Lewandowski, but they lost defenders Jan Bednarek and Bartosz Beresynski to injuries in the game. They even tried to bring on Karol Swiderski, only to realise he hadn't been included in the teamsheet and wouldn't be allowed to play.

Poland held Portugal at bay for the first 58 minutes, but then conceded five goals in an horrific 28-minute spell. Poland have now leaked 14 goals in five Nations League matches in this edition of the competition, and they haven't managed a single clean sheet. Indeed, they haven't recorded a shut-out since the Euro playoff with Wales that saw them squeeze into the finals.

At least Poland and Probierz can take solace from a solid home record. Poland have won four of their last six home internationals, and if you go back a bit further it's a respectable 12 out of 20.

Lewandowski and fellow striker Arek Milik are out, Bednarek and Beresynski are doubts, and there are also concerns about Sebastian Szymanski and Taras Romanczuk.

Scotland finally end winless streak

As predicted in our match preview, Scotland were able to pick up a positive result against Croatia, beating them 1-0 to pick up their first victory since June. They were given a big helping hand at Hampden Park, as Croatia's Petar Sucic was harshly sent off before the break. Even then, it took until the 86th minute for John McGinn to strike the winner against ten men.

It wasn't all flukes and gifts though. Liverpool winger Ben Doak - currently on loan at Middlesbrough in the Championship - was exceptional, leading Manchester City's Josko Gvardiol a merry dance. The 19-year-old flying machine could prove to be a very important player for Steve Clarke's men in the near and far future.

Scotland have given themselves a chance of avoiding automatic relegation from League A, but they have to win in Warsaw to do it. Bearing in mind their rather fragile display against the same opponents in Glasgow (they lost 3-2 and defended poorly), it's certainly a tall order, but after losing their first three games of the section it's a surprise that the Tartan Army have some hope to cling to. Indeed, there's even a tiny chance of a top-two finish, but Scotland would need to win by two goals or more and Croatia would have to lose to Portugal.

Veteran goalkeeper Craig Gordon will once again deputise for the injured Angus Gunn, while at the other end of the pitch veteran striker Che Adams is still out.

Goals on the cards as Scotland have to push

Scotland have to go for it here, and Poland's poor defensive record suggests we might see another shootout like the one we saw between these two at Hampden. I think 2.01/1 is a generous price for Over 2.5 Goals, even without Lewandowski on show.

Nine of Poland's last 12 internationals have featured at least three goals, and seven of those have featured at least four goals. Scotland have seen an Over 2.5 Goals bet land in 12 of their last 20 outings.

Keep the faith with McTominay

Before the Croatia win I backed Scott McTominay to score at 10/34.33, and even though that didn't land, I'll back him again here at 7/24.50. He's simply not being priced as a player who carries a genuine goal threat for Scotland, but he has scored 10 goals across his last 21 internationals. He also scored against top opposition last weekend, as he netted for Napoli in their 1-1 draw with title rivals Inter.

It's also worth keeping an eye on the fouls market for Ben Doak, which wasn't live at the time of writing. He's picking up an average of one foul per game for club and country this term, and he was fouled five times against Bristol City. You could combine Doak being fouled with Over 1.5 Goals and Scotland/Draw Double Chance.

Now read the rest of our Nations League coverage here!