Nertherlands v Italy Nations League Tips: Back Azzurri to save face

• Dutch beaten on home soil by Croatia

• Italians edged out by Spain in semis

• Italy good value at odds-against to win play-off

Netherlands v Italy
Sunday 18 June, 14:00
Live on Viaplay

Dutch denied their shot at glory

Although the Netherlands took Croatia to extra time in their Nations League semi-final, they needed a last-gasp leveller to do that, and in truth they were outplayed by the World Cup semi-finalists. It's not been the best of starts for Ronald Koeman since he returned to coach the Oranje for a second spell - they were smashed 4-0 by France in the EURO 2024 qualifiers, and now they have conceded four goals to Croatia in a game they desperately wanted to win.

Koeman insists that his players will take Sunday's third-place play-off seriously, and that this game in Enschede isn't a summer vacation. However, after a long and hard season and after playing 120 minutes against Croatia, it seems unlikely that the Dutch will be able to produce their best here. Memphis Depay and Matthijs de Ligt both missed the game against Croatia with injury, and it's unclear whether they'll be able to return.

Koeman has the option to change things up, with the likes of Steven Bergwijn, Gini Wijnaldum and Sven Botman pushing for starting spots. It was particularly surprising to see Botman overlooked on Wednesday after his excellent season with Newcastle - the big centre-back is still waiting for his senior Dutch debut. Liverpool's Cody Gakpo may once again feature in the forward line.

Azzurri failed to weather Spanish squall

Italy boss Roberto Mancini accepted his side deserved to lose their semi-final against Spain on Thursday. La Roja dominated the second half, and even though they didn't create too many clear-cut chances, they did snatch a late winner thanks to a predatory piece of finishing from Joselu. Italy tried to contain and counter, and had Davide Frattesi converted a golden opportunity in the second half with the score at 1-1, the story might have been different.

Italy have now lost three of their last four matches, and Mancini may soon find that the warm afterglow of the European Championship success of two years ago has cooled, not least because the Azzurri failed to qualify for the World Cup in Qatar. For a team with a reputation for being well organised and defensively secure, Italy aren't keeping many clean sheets - they have only managed one shut-out in their last five games, and that was against Malta.

It feels like Italy need a win at least as much as the Dutch, but Mancini is expected to shuffle his pack. Mateo Retegui (who has scored in both of his Italy appearances), Giacomo Raspadori and Federico Chiesa are hoping to get the nod in attack, while Federico Dimarco may get a recall at left wing-back.

Italy the value option

I went for Italy to qualify for the final based on price, and they weren't far from taking that tie against Spain to 120 minutes. Although that didn't work out for us, I think Italy are overpriced again. I know the Dutch are at home, but they were poor against Croatia and haven't really impressed since Koeman's return to replace Louis van Gaal.

I'll back Italy to finish third in the Nations League at 6/5 on the Sportsbook.

Retegui to return with a bang

Mateo Retegui was born in Argnetina, but the Tigre striker has been a big hit so far for his adopted country Italy. Retegui has scored 32 league goals since the start of last season, and in all four of his domestic seasons at the senior level he has averaged well over one shot on target per 90.

I'll use the Sportsbook's Bet Builder to back Retegui to have a shot on target, Over 7.5 Corners and a goal to be scored in each half at 2.915/8. There were goals in both halves of both semi-finals, and neither of these teams looks defensively secure at the moment.

In terms of corners, there were 12 in the Netherlands' semi, and Italy had seven in theirs. I know that's a very small sample size, but it underlines how open the games have been so far in this tournament.