Nations League Monday Tips: Back Belgium to pick up a point in Paris & 33/1 Acca

France v Belgium Tip - 15/44.75 on a point in Paris

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19:45 kick-off
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France are surprisingly big favourites here at 1/21.50 with Belgium 9/25.50 but coming off a nice 3-0 win over Turkey - but tellingly the Red Devils are missing their midfield stars Kevin De Bruyne and Youri Tielemans for this trip to Paris. They must stand a decent chance though given that France can't score more than one goal a game so far.

There wasn't too much between them in the reverse fixture - Les Bleus bossed possession and shots on target stats but, as with every game so far, they could only score the one goal which, when you consider their attacking talent even without the injured Kylian Mbappe is quite a surprise.

So with both sides only conceding once so far and the French struggling to put chances away I can see this one being a low-scoring contest, and I'll actually back the draw here, as Belgium's midfield changes will actually likely make them a touch more solid in the middle of the park if obviously taking away the creativity of De Bruyne.

Italy v Turkiye Tip - Back Azzurri win with a clean sheet

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19:45 kick-off
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Italy's fortunes seem to be looking up in Roberto Mancini's second spell in charge after grinding out that 1-1 in France showed some much-needed character. The Azzurri also beat Turkey 4-1 last week and are 2/51.40 for a repeat victory against the struggling visitors, who are 11/26.50.

Turkiye's Italian boss Vincenzo Montella is under all kinds of pressure after their 3-0 loss against Belgium on Friday made it five defeats in six, and with just one goal so far in their three Nations League losses. It's been a recipe for disaster so far, with Turkiye conceding eight goals and severely lacking a cutting edge, with 50 shots but just 14 on target.

They did score at home against Italy of course but six of their other defeats in the last seven saw them draw a blank. They've never beaten Italy and this doesn't look like a time for that to change, I think their confidence is so low an early home goal could be curtains.

Bosnia v Poland Tip - Back another draw

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19:45 kick-off
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These two played out a 0-0 draw in their opener, both have battered Romania but while Poland lost in Sweden Bosnia got a 1-1 draw with them last time out. Bosnia are 23/103.30 underdogs but have never beaten Poland in six attempts, while the Poles are 6/52.20 but have only had two wins (against Malta and Lithuania) in eight aways.

Nine of 13 Bosnia games in this competition have gone under 2.5 goals and when you couple their scoring issues with Poland's away form then you couldn't rule out another 0-0, which is 9/110.00, as they cancel each other out again. We'll just go for any type of draw though.

Romania v Sweden Tip - Back 7/24.50 second-half Swedes

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19:45 kick-off
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Romania's 2-1 defeat in Sweden is their best result so far after being more soundly beaten by Bosnia and Poland. Sweden's draw in Bosnia last time out came with a sickness bug causing problems in the camp, so it was a decent enough display but leaves a few negatives for them as 8/111.73 favourites here.

And fans will be back in the stadium for Romania having played Bosnia behind closed doors so that'll be a boost for the 10/34.33 underdogs. They've won their last four at home in front of a crowd while Sweden have just one win in six on the road so there are danger signs for the visitors.

It's 1/12.00 for the second half to have the most goals, which is worth a look with 2+ second-half goals in four of Romania's last five, while Sweden have bagged in the second half in six of eight. Preference though is for the home crowd to help Romania hold out before the extra Swedish quality, and second-half form, sees them come good.

N. Ireland v Georgia Tip - Back a 7/52.40 Windsor Park win

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19:45 kick-off
Live on BBC NI

One of the surprise packages in the Nations League, Northern Ireland top the group unbeaten after a fine 3-0 victory over Ukraine last time out. Michael O'Neill's side soaked up the pressure and defended stoutly combined with some clinical finishing on the break, and they're now 7/52.40 favourites to beat Georgia again as they did on matchday one.

The visitors are 11/53.20 to claim what would be just the second away win in the last 11 games the Irish have played at Windsor Park. They'd have to score of course to achieve that, which they've not managed to do yet in three pretty uneventful games which have resulted in two 1-0 defeats and a 0-0 draw.

Under 2.5 goals is 8/151.53 after landing in Georgia's last six games, and although they're in dire need of a result their cautious style won't change, so this looks likely to be another grind. The 2/13.00 draw is well within focus, but the Irish were so impressive against Ukraine they get the nod to edge this by the odd goal.

Back Paul's 33/134.00 Nations League Acca

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