Nations League Sunday Tips: Back 7/2 Wirtz in Germany win, Ronaldo's replacement Ramos to shine & 20/1 Acca

Greece v Germany Tip - Back 7/24.50 Wirtz to shine in away win

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19:45 kick-off
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The final round of games offer us some rare quick rematches in international football. This one in particular is intriguing as Greece beat Germany last week and were a last-minute goal away from beating the Netherlands too in their impressive unbeaten start.

They're still 3/14.00 home underdogs though as Jurgen Klopp has a completely new squad for this second contest, with this version of Germany 5/61.84 after getting Klopp's first win in charge against Serbia in midweek. The Greeks also have poor recent home form with just one win in five (D1 L3), although they do look a changed side in this Nations League.

Greece's results have been fantastic but they've been getting the very most out of limited possession and chances - netting twice from four shots on target and 0.92xG against the Dutch and scoring with their only shot on target against Germany (0.72 xG in the game). Throw in a 95th-minute winner in Serbia and there's certainly an argument that fortune has favoured them.

Klopp's new squad were utterly dominant against Serbia though, and if that form holds then Greece will be feeding on scraps here - that doesn't mean they won't be dangerous but it's unlikely to be enough. And since Klopp seemed to have got a tune out of Florian Wirtz we'll back him to match his two shots on target from midweek.

Netherlands v Serbia Tip - Back 9/52.80 hosts despite Dutch defence

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19:45 kick-off
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Another late goal gave Netherlands a point in Greece, which wasn't the result they wanted but one Xavi will have taken since they were 2-0 down. They're 1/81.12 to beat Serbia again, as they did 2-1 away last week. The Serbs have lost all three games and their price of 15/116.00 for victory also takes into account the Dutch haven't lost in their Eindhoven stronghold for 35 years.

Xavi's still looking for a first clean sheet though, which is his team's big issue as the last eight have seen both teams score. Both teams to score is 6/52.20 here though as if Serbia play like they did in Germany they'll struggle to create anything.

But they did create plenty with 33% possession in the reverse fixture and the Oranje have lost Jan Paul van Hecke to injury, so I'll back the visitors for a goal again.

Portugal v Norway Tip - Ramos to strike in 11/43.75 home win

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19:45 kick-off
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Portugal are thriving without Cristiano Ronaldo and they just love this competition. The holders are 6/101.60 to maintain their 100% start and repeat last week's 2-1 win in Oslo. Norway are 18/54.60 to bounce back from that disappointing defeat in Wales, although going down to 10 men no doubt played a part.

Norway bossed the reverse fixture but couldn't turn the possession and shots into enough goals. They're unlikely to dominate away from home but they'll carry the usual goal threat with Erling Haaland of course, and as their last 11 games have seen both teams score it's no wonder it's 1/21.50 for goals at both ends again.

The best thing about Ronaldo's departure is Goncalo Ramos finally gets to show what he can do - two goals and an assist in two starts shows he can be a real problem up front. He's 10/111.91 to score for the third game running and we'll add that to a home win again.

Wales v Denmark Tip - Back a score draw in Cardiff

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19:45 kick-off
Live on BBC TWO

Wales are riding high after Craig Bellamy's biggest win of his tenure against Norway, but they're 11/43.75 to complete a quick Scandinavian double with Denmark 19/201.95 favourites in Cardiff. The Danes ran out 2-0 winners last week in a regulation game sandwiched between two belters.

Denmark came from 2-0 down against Norway only to lose 3-2 then twice came from behind against Portugal before a 4-2 defeat, so goals shouldn't be an issue here with Wales' last six home games seeing both teams score.

Denmark have won four straight head-to-head meetings but recently on the road they've won just two of 11 and with Wales' tails up this won't be easy. I've got this as a score draw.

Rep. Ireland v Israel Tip - Back 12/53.40 repeat performance

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19:45 kick-off
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There's no home advantage here with this contentious fixture again played on neutral ground, but that didn't stop Ireland running out 3-0 winners last week. They'll have been disappointed to blow a Troy Parrott inspired 2-0 lead to draw with Austria last time out but it was still a decent performance.

The Irish are 11/102.11 favourites then and rightly so if they maintain their performance levels from the last two games - and 5/23.50 shots Israel aren't at the same level as Austria so if Ireland get ahead early again then you'd back them to stay there this time.

And as confirmed front runners I'll back the Boys in Green for another fast start - they've been 3-0 and 2-0 up at the break in their last two games so I think they're good value for a half-time/full-time repeat of the reverse fixture.

Back Paul's 20/121.00 Nations League Acca

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