Wednesday Football Tips: 15/8 price isn't spot on in Baku

Neftchi Baku v Dinamo Tbilisi
Wednesday 14 July, 18:00

This column is focused on stats and there's a data-based play for be had on this Champions League qualifier.

It hones in on a penalty being awarded which is a 15/8 shot. That looks too big and here's why.

First up, we have a referee with a strong record for awarding spot kicks.

Moldovan Dumitru Muntean has pointed to the spot in five of his last 10 domestic games but particularly encouraging is the fact he's awarded a penalty in six of his last 12 matches involving teams from two different countries, a run which goes back over a couple of years.

Here we have teams from neighbouring countries - Neftchi are the champions of Azerbaijan, Tbilisi from Georgia - and national rivalry has spilt onto the pitch before.

Both sides also have a strong recent penalty record in their games.

Neftchi are yet to begin their domestic campaign but they ended last season with a run of six of 11 games featuring a spot kick.

Tbilisi have seen a penalty in four of their last seven matches - and that includes last week's first leg which Neftchi won 2-1.

The Azeris are clearly in the box seat in the tie but it remains very much alive so a drab game should not be expected.

The pure stats suggest this should be closer to even money than it is and with that in mind, backing a penalty to be awarded at 15/8 looks to make good sense.

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