Bet of the Day

Wednesday Football Tips: Cards on the cards in Riga

Stefan Savic
Regularly carded at Atletico Madrid, Stefan Savic is part of the Montenegro team

"Montenegro have landed this in 11 of their last 20 matches. Away from home, the statistic improves to seven of 10."

Back Montenegro over 20 booking points @ 6/4

We can get 6/4 about something which has happened in 11 of Montenegro's last 20 games? Yes please, says Andy Schooler ahead of Wednesday's World Cup qualifier in Latvia.

Latvia v Montenegro
Wednesday 24 March, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports Football (Red Button)

Many bemoan the arrival of football's international windows but punters should embrace them as they often throw up some good opportunities.

The cards markets are one such a source, particularly in games involving some of Europe's smaller nations, many of whom have a strong track record for keeping the referee busy.

Latvia v Montenegro fits this bill.

Both teams have been reliable for card backers in recent times but it's the visitors I will focus on with 6/4 about them picking up over 20 booking points the best bet.

Montenegro have landed this in 11 of their last 20 matches. Away from home, the statistic improves to seven of 10.

With Latvia also far from adverse to a card - they've had over 20 booking points in 10 of their last 16 matches - this game is likely to be feisty, particularly with both sides knowing defeat, even at this early stage, would be a massive blow to any qualification hopes given Netherlands, Norway and Turkey are all also in Group G.

The bet is boosted by the referee appointment - Alain Durieux, of Luxembourg. He's shown 90 cards in 17 games this season across all competitions and that averages out at 53.8 booking points per game.

Admittedly he hasn't been quite so card happy in his previous international appointments, although that's a pretty small data sample.

I prefer to focus on his sustained track record for producing cards (he also showed 91 in 21 games last season) and with two of Europe's dirtier teams involved, Montenegro look more than capable of landing the 6/4.

Recommended bets

Column P/L

Staked: 9pts
Returned: 2.81pts
P/L: -6.19pts

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