Monday Football Tips: 7/1 Bet Builder looks overpriced

• Trejo carded in 33 of last 60 La Liga starts

• Lejeune 2+ shots in five of last nine

• Bet Builder double pays north of 7/1

Let's kick the new week off by taking a chance on an overpriced double.

Part one features regular card collector Oscar Trejo.

The Rayo Vallecano captain has been the punters' friend in the 'shown a card' market in the past couple of years - he comes into this game having been carded in 33 of his last 60 La Liga starts.

So far this season, his record is seven cards in 14 starts, while he's well inside the top 10 in terms of fouls per game (2.4).

Such figures make odds of 15/8 about him going into the book here look big.

Of course, there is more to the bet than those simple numbers but the referee, Juan Luis Pulido Santana, is well up the card charts this season - he sits 7th out of 20 in terms of yellows shown, while he's also dished out three reds in his eight games.

The two teams are in mid-table in the fair-play league, while in the actual La Liga standings they are separated by only five points, both harbouring European ambitions, so it should be a competitive game.

A word of warning; Trejo is in the veteran stage of his career now so usually gets substituted in the second half but that hasn't prevented him racking up a pretty ridiculous card tally of late.

The second part of the Bet Builder is to back Florian Lejeune for 2+ shots.

This is a 7/4 chance but recent efforts from the Rayo centre-back suggest that's on the large side too.

Lejeune has hit at least two shots in five of his last nine La Liga matches. He's also managed to land the 1+ shot bet in each of his last 10 in all competitions.

He takes plenty of the free kicks around the box, likes to try his luck from distance from open play and is an aerial threat from set-pieces.

The latter is good news with Rayo having the fourth-best set-piece expected goals (SP xG) figure in the league and here they face a side with several injury problems at present.

Basically, the data suggests both prices are too big. Put them together and you get odds of just above 7/1.

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