Thursday Football Tips: Cards on the cards in Europa clash

Union St Gilloise v Malmo
Thursday 15 September, 20:00
Live on BT Sport Digital Exclusive

We love a cards bet in this column and on Thursday night this is the match which stands out on the Europa League coupon in terms of bookings potential.

Hosts Union were the surprise champions of Belgium last season but they've struggled so far this term, falling well off the early pace domestically and blowing a 2-0 first-leg lead against Rangers as they crashed out of the Champions League.

Their struggles have led to ill discipline too - they are rock bottom of the Jupiler League's fair-play table with 21 yellows and three reds in their eight games. They also saw seven cards across the two legs against Rangers.

A look a Sweden's fair-play table shows Malmo doing just fine but dig deeper and you see why they can be expected to contribute to this game's card tally.

Having started in the early qualifying rounds, this will be their 10th game in Europe this season and they've already received 29 cards.

Throw in a card-happy referee in Bartosz Frankowski and this looks a good mix - the Pole has shown at least five cards in 10 of his last 14 UEFA club appointments and 4+ in 16 of his last 22.

So how to profit?

Over 4.5 cards is just 4/7 and 2+ for each team 13/20 so the total cards markets aren't looking great, although some will be happy to play the higher lines.

Preference here is for a double in the 'player shown a card' market.

Union midfielder Senne Lynen is first up - he's been carded in four of his 10 starts this season and in his domestic league he's in the top 25 for fouls committed.

He'll be in the heart of the battle here and could easily catch the referee's eye.

For Malmo, Erdan Rakip has a remarkable record of being carded in all six games he's played in Europe this season.

That's a run which makes odds of 16/5 about another here look big.

Clearly the streak won't go on forever but it's worth noting that in the 2022 Swedish domestic season he's picked up eight cards in 24 appearances. It's not hugely out of character.

Put the pair together via the Bet Builder option and you get a tempting 13/1 shot.

Admittedly Rakip is an injury doubt having been forced off during last week's defeat to Braga but if he fails to make the matchday squad we've still got a decent single, while if he's named on the bench then you can simply cash out to get your stake back if you so wish.

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