Thursday Football Tips: Back a couple of Caracas crackers

Athletico Paranaense v Caracas
Thursday 26 May, 23:00

There looks to be shots value in this crunch game in the Copa Libertadores on Thursday night.

In what has proved to be the tightest group with all four teams still in with a chance of finishing in the top two, the Brazilian hosts know a win would put them into the knockout stage. However, it's the same scenario for Caracas, who could also finish third (and drop into the second-tier Copa Sudamericana competition) if they draw.

In short, much is at stake.

As you can probably imagine, Venezuelan side Caracas are big underdogs (15/1 to win) but will surely give it a go.

And it's not as if they've been outclassed in this group - they've only conceded three goals in their five matches so far and held Athletico to a goalless draw in the reverse fixture.

The shots value lies in siding with Caracas, whose players' prices appear to have had too much weight placed on the match win odds.

In Samson Olanrewaju Akinyoola, they've got a player who's taken more shots than any other in the group stage - a whopping 26 in five matches so far.

He's 8/11 for 2+ shots, a mark he's hit in all five group games. Away from home, he's managed two and six, while notably in the reverse fixture it was nine.

Fellow attacker, Kwaku Bonsu Osei managed five in that contest (15 overall) and has also hit 2+ five times out of five thus far.

Yes, this game is their toughest of the group but the standings suggest that at some stage they'll have to go for it and clearly they have a couple of players who are happy to try their luck.

Both men to hit 2+ shots via the Bet Builder feature pays around 7/2 which I'll put half the stake on.

As for the other half, I simply can't ignore Akinyoola's shot tallies so far - 5-4-6-2-9.

Given these, the higher lines look worth a small investment with 4+ shots looking appealing at 13/2 given the Beninese has landed it four times out of five.

Nathan Joyes has two tips for Thursday's Copa Libertadores action