"Seven of Moldova's 10 (post-lockdown) games have seen under 2.5 goals, including away losses in Greece, Slovenia and Kosovo. With 11 of Scotland’s last 15 competitive matches also seeing under 2.5 goals, don’t expect a goal-fest."
Our football props column focuses on Scotland v Moldova on Saturday and Andy Schooler has dug out a stats-based Bet Builder at close to 6/1...
Scotland v Moldova
Saturday 4 September, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports Football
Scotland's 2-0 defeat in Denmark on Wednesday means they head into a game boss Steve Clarke describes as "must win" having won just one of their last 10 competitive matches.
However, they should still be good enough to see off a Moldova side who have suffered 14 away defeats in a row and have lost eight of 10 competitive internationals since football's pandemic-enforced lockdown last year. The other two were drawn.
The return of midfielder John McGinn will boost them in both halves of the pitch, while Stephen McDonnell and Nathan Patterson are both available again to ensure Andy Robertson won't have to stand in at right-back, as he did in Copenhagen.
Moldova won't make it easy though.
Clarke was right to describe them as "well organised defensively"; seven of their 10 games mentioned above have seen under 2.5 goals, including away losses in Greece, Slovenia and Kosovo.
With 11 of Scotland's last 15 competitive matches also seeing under 2.5 goals, don't expect a goal-fest.
Under 2.5 here is an option but I'll add under 3.5 to our coupon for a bit of leeway.
The Bet Builder is completed by a cards bet - namely Vadim Rata to be booked.
That's a 16/5 shot as a single which looks a big price considering the defensive midfielder has been carded in seven of his 16 appearances since winning a recall to the national set-up in 2019.
Referee Lawrence Visser is a decent one for cards too.
If you include his matches at last season's European Under-21 Championship, he's shown 27 yellows and two reds in his last five internationals.
And so far this season, the Belgian has produced 33 yellows and four reds in just six matches.
With Moldova having seen at least two cards in 16 of their last 19 competitive games, Rata looks worth making the foundation of a treble which pays almost 6/1.
Click here for Frank Monkhouse's in-depth preview of Scotland v Moldova