Saturday Football Tips: Barreiro booking the best bet in battle

Republic of Ireland v Luxembourg
Saturday 27 March, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

Having lost their opening World Cup qualifier in Serbia on Wednesday, the pressure is on Ireland heading into this game, one they simply have to win if they are serious about playing in Qatar next year.

However, don't expect it to be easy.

Luxembourg won three and drew one of their Nations League C games in the autumn, beating group winners Montenegro away in the process.

At the same time, Ireland were going through a winless campaign in League B, narrowly avoiding relegation and scoring just a single goal.

That goal tally summed up how Ireland struggled to create good chances and I doubt they'll find it easy to break down their visitors in this one.

A battle can be expected, particularly in midfield which is where the best bet comes from.

Luxembourg midfielder Leandro Barreiro could well be catching the referee's attention here.

He's been carded in six of his 16 competitive games for the national team. Including friendlies, he's been booked in three of their last four.

The 21-year-old loves a tackle, averaging over three per game in that Nations League campaign. He plays his club football in the German Bundesliga where only two players average more fouls per game this season.

The referee is decent enough - Fran Jovic is averaging over five cards per game in his native Croatia this season, where his figure was above six last term.

Admittedly he hasn't been so prolific at this level but still produced eight cards across his two Nations League games earlier in the season.

All things considered, 11/4 about Barreiro having his name taken is a price I'm happy with.