Football Bet of the Day: Hosts can edge Norwegian showdown

• Sarpsborg have great recent record against Rosenborg

• Hosts have lost just one of last 13

• Visitors have lost three of the last four on the road

Sarpsborg v Rosenborg
Friday 18 July, 17:00

HJK pulled off a remarkable comeback in the Conference League qualifiers last night, as they overturned a 4-0 first-leg deficit to beat Faroese side NSI 5-0. In the process, they gave us an odds-against winner.

We'll head to Norway now, because Sarpsborg are up against Rosenborg, and I'm happy to back the home side with a bit of insurance.

Visitors Rosenborg were once the dominant force in Norwegian football, but those days are long behind them. The Trondheim side haven't won the league since 2018, and less traditional powerhouses like Molde and Bodo/Glimt have moved into that space.

Rosenborg finished fourth in the Eliteserien last term, and they are currently fifth, having faded following a strong start. RBK have won just two of their last eight competitive matches, and on their travels they have lost three of the last four, including a 4-0 hammering at Bodo/Glimt.

Sarpsborg are trending in the other direction. They have put together a seven-match unbeaten run, and if you go back further they have lost just one of their last 13. On home soil, Sarpsborg have won four of their last six.

Backing Sarpsborg Draw No Bet here at 1.758/11 seems a sensible play. If the game is drawn our stake is returned, and we only lose money if the out-of-form visitors take all three points. Sarpsborg have won five of the clubs' last six competitive meetings, and they knocked Rosenborg out of the Norwegian Cup last month.

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