Football Bet of the Day: Corinthians won't be casual

• Corinthians unbeaten in 11

• Sao Paulo have won just one of last seven

Sao Paulo v Corinthians
Wednesday 16 August, 23:30

Molde got the 2-0 win we needed last night against KI Klaksvik in the Champions League, but annoyingly the second goal didn't arrive until extra time, so our bet didn't land. Right idea, wrong outcome.

Unbowed, we head to Brazil for a massive game between Sao Paulo and Corinthians in the Copa do Brasil semi-finals. While some nations don't necessarily take their national cup competitions that seriously, in Brazil they absolutely do, and this is a clash between traditional powerhouses.

Corinthians made a poor start to the season, but they have turned things around and have put together an 11-match unbeaten run in all competitions, including a 2-1 victory in the first leg of this semi-final. They have surged clear of relegation danger in Serie A, and are suddenly only four points behind Sao Paulo in the standings. Youngsters like Yuri Alberto and Wesley have caught the eye recently, while 35-year-old veteran Renato Augusto scored twice in the first leg of this semi-final.

Former Real Madrid coach Vanderlei Luxemburgo took over Corinthians in May, and has transformed their season.

Sao Paulo have had a packed schedule, and one wonders if it's catching up with them. Although they are still going well in this competition and the Copa Sudamericana (they recently knocked out Argentinean side San Lorenzo), they are only mid-table in the league. In all competitions, Dorival Junior's side have won just one of their last seven games. On home soil, they have won just one of the last three.

Given the current form of the two sides, Sao Paulo's price of 1.748/11 to win the game seems far too short. Corinthians have a strong recent record against them, and have a first-leg advantage to protect, so they don't have to take unnecessary risks. I'll lay the hosts.