Santos v Goias: Ref can help 17/2 Bet Builder land

• Strict ref makes cards highly likely

• Duo close to a card every other game

• Bet Builder at 17/2 looks decent value

Santos v Goias
Sunday 9 July, 15:00
Live on Fanatiz

It was close but no cigar again in Brazil on Saturday when half the Coritiba side were booked but not the man we'd picked out. At least Danilo Avelar landed his shots leg, so hopefully someone profited.

Despite that disappointment, we're sticking in Serie A on Sunday with the Brazilian top flight offering props punters plenty of options.

Leg 1: Maguinho to be shown a card

This clash looks likely to deliver cards with referee Bruno Arleu de Araujo one of the strictest in the competition.

He's up close to eight cards per game in Serie A this season with the make-ups of his games so far being 8-6-6-9-10-7.

While admittedly that's not the biggest data sample, a look across all competitions shows his average is still above six which is a strong number. They include two 10+ games in his six Copa do Brasil ties.

Over 2.5 cards for each side pays 13/10 which looks decent enough but we're going to try for a bigger reward by backing a couple of strong candidates in the player-card market.

Goias lead the league for fouls conceded and are also fifth for cards received.
They have plenty of potential card recipients but right-back Maguinho is the one I like.

He's been carded in six of 11 league games so far this season and in this one is set to come up against a tricky opponent.

Yeferson Solteldo is the most-fouled Santos player this season, although he recently fell out with the coach so may not play, but his likely replacement, Stiven Mendoza, is second in the 'fouled' list so Maguinho could well attract the official's attention.

Leg 2: Dodi to be shown a card

Santos' card record is not so strong, although they also sit in the top half of the fouls committed table.

Given the choice of ref, I'm happy to get with their defensive midfielder Dodi for a card.

He's got 11 in 33 appearances in all competitions in 2023 with five of them coming in 12 Serie A matches.

With just two points between the sides - and Goias in the relegation zone - this should be a competitive affair in the centre of the park.

In conclusion, backing Maguinho and Dodi to receive cards from a referee who likes to flash them around looks worth a try at 17/2.

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