-
San Marino without a win for 19 years
-
Hosts unlikely to contribute a goal
-
Away win but not many goals for a Bet Builder
San Marino v Northern Ireland
Thursday 23 March, 19:45
Live on Viaplay Sports 1
Latvia did their job for us last night, as they kept things close in Dublin with a 3-2 defeat against the Republic of Ireland, landing our Asian Handicap bet. We'll now follow Northern Ireland as they visit San Marino in the opening round of qualifiers for EURO 2024.
Minnows still enjoying the thrill of competition
Consider the case of Roberto Di Maio. He is 40 years old, and is about to make his international debut for San Marino. He's not the oldest international debutant (my commentary colleague Dan O'Hagan tells me that's Montserrat's Kenny Dyer, who was 43), but let's just say he's had a full career.
The defender is the current holder of the "Crystal Ball" for being San Marino's best domestic league player, and earlier in his career he had a spell at Lecce when they were in Serie C, and he turned out for Nocerina in Serie B.
The reason I'm relating his tale is that for all the criticism they get, San Marino's existence in international football remains a joy, because it's what sport is all about.
Yes, a team with graphic designers, teachers and bus drivers is always going to get tanned when they play the big hitters (and the medium hitters), but international football can't just be about the elite nations. It's called qualifying for a reason.
San Marino recently played two games in St Lucia (whoever's booking their fixtures is pretty sharp), and they extended their winless run to 128 matches. That sequence stretches back to 2004, when they beat Liechtenstein 1-0 in a friendly. Even the Nations League hasn't really helped, as they have played 14, lost 12 and drawn two. They have scored the grand total of zero goals in those fixtures.
O'Neill back to maximise NI's chances
They say you should never go back, but sometimes the truth is that you should never have left. Michael O'Neill had nearly three years at Stoke in which he wasn't able to make a significant impact, and now he has a second chance to try to take his country Northern Ireland to major tournaments, having led them to the finals of EURO 2016.
In O'Neill's absence, Ian Baraclough had a mixed time. The Englishman got Northern Ireland to a EURO 2020 playoff final, but lost to Slovakia in extra time. He saw them finish third in World Cup qualifying behind Italy and Switzerland, managing goalless draws against both nations. However, NI were nearly relegated to the bottom tier of the Nations League on his watch too.
O'Neill will doubtless benefit from some of Baraclough's excellent youth development work, and he now faces a qualifying group that features San Marino, Denmark, Finland, Kazakhstan and Slovenia. With the top two qualifying automatically, there is an opportunity here.
Northern Ireland are without veteran defender Jonny Evans because of injury. Bolton striker Dion Charles hopes to start, as he chases his first international goal.
O'Neill to make a winning start
Northern Ireland should outclass San Marino here, and to be fair to Baraclough they were scoring freely towards the end of his tenure, finding the net at least twice in three of his last four internationals.
However, I'll go for Northern Ireland to win, Under 3.5 Goals and Over 6.5 Corners here at 2.1211/10 on the Sportsbook's Bet Builder.
This will be attack against defence for the most part, so I'm expecting pressure and plenty of corners. However, San Marino stayed under the 3.5 goals line at home to Hungary, Albania and Andorra in the World Cup qualifiers in 2021.