Tuesday Football Tips: Focus on Cancelo in crunch derby

Portugal v Spain
Tuesday 27 September, 19:45
Live on BoxNation

One of these sides will join Netherlands, Croatia and Italy in next summer's Nations League Finals and it's Portugal in the box seat heading into Tuesday's crunch clash.

They only need a draw to progress, whereas Spain must win if they are to return to the Finals, which they contested in 2021.

Essentially, this is set up rather nicely and it should provide plenty of entertainment for those tuning in.

Focus from a props betting perspective is on the hosts' Joao Cancelo, who returns from suspension.

That ban is a nod to the first part of our Bet Builder.

Cancelo has been carded in five of his last seven internationals, while he's no stranger to the referee's notebook at Manchester City - he already has two yellows in seven Premier League games this season.

Here he's expected to come in at left-back which would likely put him in direct opposition to Ferran Torres, a player who likes to run with the ball - he was Spain's leading dribbler during World Cup qualifying and is again so far in this competition.

Daniele Orsato is a good referee for cards.

His last five internationals have had card make-ups of 4-6-7-7-7, while in his UEFA club appointments he has shown 4+ in 27 of his last 35.

There were eight produced in the reverse fixture of this Iberian derby and with so much at stake, it's not hard to see plenty more being dished out by the Italian here.

Indeed, the total cards lines are also worthy of consideration - over 4.5 at odds-against looks decent, with the higher lines also offering potential. Over 7.5, which landed in that first game, is on offer at 11/1.

The shot markets make less appeal - Spain have certainly struggled on this front, failing to reach double figures in each of their last three matches.

They'll have plenty of possession again here but they had 74% of the ball against Switzerland on Saturday and still lost 2-1, mustering just eight shots.

So instead of heading down that path we'll stick with Cancelo and back him to either score or assist.

Again, his figures are strong.

Cancelo has assisted in five of his last 15 starts for his country, including against Spain earlier in this group. He's also scored in three of his last 10.

In terms of score or assist - the metric we really need for this market - he's done this in six of his last 11 but we're getting 7/2.

OK, Spain are better than most sides Portugal will face but they've had a definite weakness in defence of late - as well as Saturday's home defeat they shipped two goals in the Czech Republic back in June.

They've also struggled on set pieces, conceding twice from them against the Swiss, and Cancelo is often involved in the delivery of these.

Only the Netherlands have a better goalscoring record in League A of this tournament than the Portuguese so there's a strong chance they find the net here, maybe on multiple occasions.

If they do so, Cancelo's propensity to get forward will make him a candidate to be involved.

Run Cancelo to score or assist and be carded through the Bet Builder page and you get more than 13/1.

Tuesday Cheat Sheet: All the best Nations League bets in one place!