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Porto v Inter Milan: Foul your way to profit

Andy Schooler
14 March 2023
2:00 min read

Pepe Aquino: Set for a more defensive role

FC Porto vs Inter Milan
Tue 14 Mar, 20:00

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The fouls markets look ripe for the picking when Porto host Inter Milan in the Champions League on Tuesday night...

High foul count in first leg & strict ref
Pepe Aquino looks to offer value
Try 5/2 Bet Builder in fouls market

There were no fewer than 28 fouls in the first leg of this Champions League last-16 tie, well above the competition average of 21.43 per game.

With Inter holding a slender 1-0 lead, there's still a huge amount at stake as the sides head into the second leg.

Throw in a referee, Szymon Marciniak, whose fouls average is up at 23 in the Champions League this season, and another high foul count can be expected.

Therefore, let's look at the player fouls market where the value looks to lie with the hosts' Pepe Aquino.

To avoid any confusion, let's immediately distinguish the Brazilian from his namesake, Pepe, the Portuguese centre-back, who may be best known for his days at Real Madrid.

FC Porto

Inter Milan

Sporting Braga 0 0 FC Porto
FC Porto 0 0 Inter Milan
FC Porto 3 2 Estoril Praia
Chaves 1 3 FC Porto
FC Porto 1 2 Gil Vicente
Inter Milan 1 0 FC Porto

Inter Milan 0 1 Juventus
FC Porto 0 0 Inter Milan
Spezia 2 1 Inter Milan
Inter Milan 2 0 Lecce
Bologna 1 0 Inter Milan
Inter Milan 1 0 FC Porto

FC Porto vs Inter Milan Tuesday 14 March, 20:00

Full stats

Pepe Aquino usually plays much further forward than that, although here he's expected to perform a more defensive role than usual, due to the absence of regular right-back Joao Mario.

He's being tipped to play as a right wing-back here, a position more likely to lead to fouls but, in any case, Pepe Aquino has landed the 1+ fouls bet in each of his last five starts.

The tricky Nicolo Barella will likely be heading into his area of the pitch, as will Federico Dimarco, and I'm a bit surprised to see him offered at 10/11 for a foul at any time in this game. 5/1 about 2+ fouls may be worth considering if you are after a chunky price.

To complete our Bet Builder, I'm heading into the centre of the pitch which is where the fouls really racked up in the first leg three weeks ago.

Barella committed four that day and Henrikh Mkhitaryan three, a figure matched by Hakan Calhanoglu.

The latter is very short for fouls in this leg but the other two are both available at backable prices for 1+ foul.

Throw Barella and Mkhitaryan into a three-legged 1+ fouls bet with Pepe Aquino and you get a price just north of 5/2.

Before leaving you, it would also be amiss not to mention Marciniak's record for awarding penalties.

He's now given a spot kick in 13 of his last 27 UEFA club appointments, a ratio which immediately makes 7/4 look big.

To add weight to the thinking, Porto have conceded a spot kick in two of their las four games, while Inter have won three in their last five.

Sadly, the penalty bet is not available in Bet Builders but it's certainly worth considering as a single here.

More Champions League previews and tips!

Back Pepe Aquino, Barella & Mkhitarayan all 1+foul @

3.53

Column P/L 2022/23

Staked: 239pts
Returned: 277.58pts
P/L: +38.58pts

You can get a £5 free bet when you place a £5 Bet Builder on Italy vs England on Thursday. You must opt-in. T&Cs apply.

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Back Pepe Aquino, Nicolo Barella & Henrikh Mkhitarayan all 1+ foul @ around 3.55/2

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