Porto v Inter Milan: Foul your way to profit

Pepe Aquino, Porto
Pepe Aquino: Set for a more defensive role

The fouls markets look ripe for the picking when Porto host Inter Milan in the Champions League on Tuesday night...

  • High foul count in first leg & strict ref

  • Pepe Aquino looks to offer value

  • Try 5/2 Bet Builder in fouls market


There were no fewer than 28 fouls in the first leg of this Champions League last-16 tie, well above the competition average of 21.43 per game.

With Inter holding a slender 1-0 lead, there's still a huge amount at stake as the sides head into the second leg.

Throw in a referee, Szymon Marciniak, whose fouls average is up at 23 in the Champions League this season, and another high foul count can be expected.

Therefore, let's look at the player fouls market where the value looks to lie with the hosts' Pepe Aquino.

To avoid any confusion, let's immediately distinguish the Brazilian from his namesake, Pepe, the Portuguese centre-back, who may be best known for his days at Real Madrid.

Pepe Aquino usually plays much further forward than that, although here he's expected to perform a more defensive role than usual, due to the absence of regular right-back Joao Mario.

He's being tipped to play as a right wing-back here, a position more likely to lead to fouls but, in any case, Pepe Aquino has landed the 1+ fouls bet in each of his last five starts.

The tricky Nicolo Barella will likely be heading into his area of the pitch, as will Federico Dimarco, and I'm a bit surprised to see him offered at 10/11 for a foul at any time in this game. 5/1 about 2+ fouls may be worth considering if you are after a chunky price.

To complete our Bet Builder, I'm heading into the centre of the pitch which is where the fouls really racked up in the first leg three weeks ago.

Barella committed four that day and Henrikh Mkhitaryan three, a figure matched by Hakan Calhanoglu.

The latter is very short for fouls in this leg but the other two are both available at backable prices for 1+ foul.

Throw Barella and Mkhitaryan into a three-legged 1+ fouls bet with Pepe Aquino and you get a price just north of 5/2.

Before leaving you, it would also be amiss not to mention Marciniak's record for awarding penalties.

He's now given a spot kick in 13 of his last 27 UEFA club appointments, a ratio which immediately makes 7/4 look big.

To add weight to the thinking, Porto have conceded a spot kick in two of their las four games, while Inter have won three in their last five.

Sadly, the penalty bet is not available in Bet Builders but it's certainly worth considering as a single here.

More Champions League previews and tips!

Back Pepe Aquino, Barella & Mkhitarayan all 1+foul @

3.53

Column P/L 2022/23

Staked: 239pts
Returned: 277.58pts
P/L: +38.58pts

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Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.